Asking why Barack Obama seems to have stalled and isn't beating John McCain by a lot assumes that there are good reasons to believe that Obama should be leading RIGHT NOW by a healthier margin than roughly 3.3%. And certainly, it assumes that the trend should favor an expanded margin, not narrower one. Maybe, maybe not. So what's going on? A few theories, some of them contradictory, others not so mutually exclusive. Which ones are more persuasive? Are there theories I'm missing? Recent history suggests that the electorate swings late, not early, as undecided voters slowly, carefully, and fairly rationally begin to make up their minds. When low-information voters -- a subset of swing voters -- are pushed in polls to support candidates, I assume that the news of the day will be what pushes them one direction or another, a very distinct way of thinking that is totally unlike the cognitive calculus they'll do before they actually fill in the bubble.
He IS leading. Over the course of two months and literally dozens of surveys, I can recall only two national polls -- one Rasmussen IVR poll and one Newsweek poll of likely voters -- showing John McCain in the lead. Everywhere, all the time, Obama's leading in the polls. The unknown guy is leading over the known guy. Obama's currently building enormous Senate-style campaigns in 18 states and has several major states -- Iowa and Wisconsin -- in the bag already. Chill.
Partisanship. The electorate's jitterbugging is all confined to a fairly narrow circle, where Democratic zigs are evenly matched by partisan zags. Even when one party hits a dry patch, the other party's fertility is constrained. If we, in 2000, were a 50.5% Democratic country, in 2002 a 51.% Republican country in terms of the two-party congressional vote, and in 2004, a 50.7% Republican country, and in 2006, a 52% Democratic country in terms of the two-party congressional vote, we would not -- should not -- expect 2008 to be a year where Democrats capture 54% of the presidential vote. Indeed, given the past few cycles, if Obama recieved roughly 51.5% of the vote to McCain's 47 or 48%, it would be a post-dated blow-out. Maybe Democrats expect too much.
White, generational racism. Maybe racism accounts for Obama's difficulties with older white voters and white men, in particular. But with one exception -- older white women -- his fall-offs among these demographics roughly track the norm for Democraitc presidential candidates.
Otherness. There is a thin version, as expostulated by David Brooks, is that Obama, a "sojournor," and "voters have trouble placing him in his context, understanding the roots and values in which he is ineluctably embedded." Basically: the Peter Hart problem. The thinker version: whether it's his name, his binational background, his biracial identity, his urbanity, his inexperience -- people don't really trust him.
Bambiness. Obama doesn't counterpunch effectively, and to the extent that baseline opinions about character are being formed now, bruises that were just about to fully heal from the primaries are blushing again. Put it another way, just as the McCain campaign is offended by the rank inexperience and presumptuous of the Obama campaign and aren't bottling up their feelings, the Obama campaign is offended by the rank immaturity and stupidity of the McCain campaign and aren't bottling up their feelings.
Gas prices and the Iraq war. McCain strategists credit McCain's "Dr. No" campaign and the success of the surge as reasons for weakly partisan Republicans starting to get more excited about the McCain campaign.
Information. Right now, the type of voter who's paying attention is primed to support John McCain. After the conventions, when younger voters typically tune in -- and by younger here, I mean, under 55 or so -- then Obama's margins will widen because these folks are his folks.
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I think that Barack Obama isn't blowing this out for a simple reason: he's young, he's got a foreign name, and he's been on the national stage for a minute.
Jack Kennedy barely made it into the White House. Abe Lincoln barely made it into the White House.
Change is hard. The best thing Obama has going for him right now is George W. Bush. The second thing is the economy. And the third is his GOTV operation.
At the end of the day I think this will be a 4 point race and Obama will get about 300 EVs. I think that the McCain camp has done what it needed to do to get back in the conversation and while they're cribbing from Hillary's playbook they have a major problem: they don't have HRCs policies. Obama's actually closer to her on that score.
As for older female voters: I honestly think that Sellibus is going to be the VP. He needs to rally the female vote and a female VP will do that; it doesn't have to be Clinton because apart from her hardcore donors I think at the end of the day a lot of women would be happy for a woman to make the grade. It'll make it hard with team Clinton; but given the way things stand what are they going to do?
That's my take.
Posted by Rhoda | August 6, 2008 12:37 PM