I know Democrats are super eager to see Barack Obama open up a lead over John McCain, but they need to temper their enthusiasm just a bit. Remember, each track includes a three-day sample of interviews, and Wednesday night's festivities haven't even been polled yet, so you can't credit Biden's speech with anything.
Conclude if you'd like that people responded favorably to the convention initially.
But a bounce -- a real bounce -- is not a transient, one-day spike. Check back in mid-September. If Obama has opened up a lead and the lead is steady, then you can fairly say that the convention provided Obama with a boost.
My colleague Mark Blumenthal... actually, more than a colleague..a real polling pro who knows what he's talking about... will, I'm sure, weigh in.
Rick Hasen of Loyola e-mails:
It is at least a two-day spike, not a one day spike. Look at the polling from three days ago, with McCain in a slight lead to today, and see here:
That's not to say that the bounce will last through mid-September. We can expect a McCain bounce after his convention as well.
Here's why this is significant politically:
But whether or not Obama shows a bounce in the next week will be the subject of endless pundit/talking head fodder. If, for example, the Gallup tracking poll going into the Republican convention shows again a 45-45 tie, you can bet pundits will say that Obama has not done his job.
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