Ostensibly, the debate is on his home turf, as most of it will focus on national security, it's the most-watched debate, and he is 3-5 points behind nationally. It looks to me like presidential preferences are hardening and undecideds are making up their minds -- and they're going to Obama because of the economy.
Forget all the political science that says debates are or aren't important. They obviously _can_ be -- and our perception of who won them and who lost them often differs from the public. It wasn't until Saturday Night Live mocked Al Gore's "sighing" that the public began to score Bush higher. What people take away from debates are snapshots: Bush looking at his watch, classical zingers ("there he goes again"), uncomfortable silences, body language.
Some analysts are throwing down various thresholds for each candidates to cross; Obama needs to be a commander in chief and not scary; McCain needs to be vigorous and look like he gets what's going on. I think those thresholds are artificial and not relevant.
What resonates are moments -- the debate is taking place against the backdrop of a crisis, and it is the candidates' responses to the crisis, in real time, that will leave the most impressions.
The stakes are high for Obama here as well, but McCain is the one who's going to be defending his questionable choices of late.
Some notes:
** Expect Obama to play it cool ... although not too cool.
** Expect McCain to appeal to his record of putting "country first" and making the hard choices. There's plenty of fodder for Lehrer to ask McCain to defend Gov. Sarah Palin while he tries to make the case that Obama is untested, has the wrong judgment, and so forth. Obama will probably be gracious and let Palin speak for herself.
** On Iraq, Obama has been pressing the case that the Surge was a laudable tactical victory in a war that's gone on for almost 6 years and was a terrible, costly mistake. McCain will try to bait him into revisiting his judgment.
** Obama might be more aggressive than people expect, having learned from the primaries that the surest way to win a debate is to land a great punch, something he's done only occasionally in the past.
** McCain has spent a lot less time preparing for this debate than Obama owing to McCain's decision to suspend his campaign and return to Washington.
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