As The Real Convention Begins, Where McCain Is

Trying to figure out what the first few days of the Republican National Convention have communicated to voters is like trying to understand a game of three dimensional chess. On one board, the McCain campaign piggybacked itself to Gustav; McCain flew down to inspect preparations; the storm passed with minimal loss of life; the New Orleans Parish's evacuation plans were given a try-out, not the federal government's response.

In the vacuum, there was no bracketing of Obama, which might have allowed the good feelings from last Thursday's speech to sink in.  The only McCain-related headlines have been a drip-drip-drip about the qualifications of his running mate. The only push-back the media's gotten so far is from delegates who sympathize with her family situation and who are rallying around her because she is one of them.  The elite chatter has focused on the vetting process, something that doesn't really interest average voters unless, when they're first exposed to Palin, they see her as manifestly unqualified.

From the McCain campaign's perspective, all the worst oppo has been dumped during a hurricane, expectations have been lowered for her speech, and tonight's floor speeches will focus on Obama's redefinition.


On another level of the chess board, expectations have been raised significantly for her speech. Interest in it will be intense. Her qualifications have been questioned; she'll have to convey the impression that she's ready to be president from day one.  So far, the McCain campaign hasn't come up with a sufficient response to these questions. Their surrogate efforts have been amusingly unfulfilling. It's up to Palin to silence the doubters. The McCain campaign dismisses the influence of the media, but they know that if the media gloms on to a particular narrative, it could be devastating. It's up to Palin to convince the media otherwise.