Now weekly.
The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states. MARGINAL TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns seem tobe asserting themselves but exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning to a particular candidate at this point. TRUE TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns are not asserting themselves AND exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM, NH (26 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, WI, PA, OH (95 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA (27 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 216 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 200 electoral votes
Tossups: 122 electoral votes.
New Mexico moves to lean-Obama based on the Obama campaign's confidence there and the relative lack of attention McCain is paying to the state.
Colorado, Nevada and Virginia are more competitive than they ought to be at this point.
New Hampshire moves to lean-Obama for meta-environmental reasons and because of the strength of his recent polling.
Florida remains a toss-up; the Obama campaign has a larger organization there, and McCain is underperforming along the I-4 corridor.
No reason just yet to move Montana into the tossup category.
The North Carolina Senate race is getting very competitive.
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