Atlantic Electoral Map 9/23

The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states. MARGINAL TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns seem to be asserting themselves but exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning to a particular candidate at this point. TRUE TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns are not asserting themselves AND exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning.

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Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM (22 electoral votes)

Marginal toss-ups:  FL, MI, NH, WI, PA, OH (99 electoral votes)

True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA (27 electoral votes)

Lean McCain:  GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 212 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 200 electoral votes

Tossups: 126 electoral votes

One move: New Hampshire from lean Obama to toss-up, owing to some recent polling showing McCain ahead.

But there is no data showing that McCain's convention bounce has changed the electoral map much. Over the week, I'll be watching state polls in the industrial Midwest to see whether the shock of the economic crisis is hurting McCain.

What ought to worry the McCain campaign: they had their best week of the cycle, and the state polls didn't move.  And, truth be told, in states like Virginia, Obama is doing what he needs to, demographically, to win.

A few other notes:

Colorado -- Democrats are outworking Republicans in this state, and the convention was a huge boost.

Nevada -- McCain has an edge, but it's a slight one. Obama is doing well enough among Hispanics nationally to win in Nevada, and the Obama campaign has been all over the state's growth areas since late last year.

Wisconsin is more competitive today than it was before Sarah Palin's pick, although both campaigns believe that Obama has a slight advantage, particularly with the focus on the economy.