The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states. MARGINAL TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns seem to be asserting themselves but exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning to a particular candidate at this point. TRUE TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns are not asserting themselves AND exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning.
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Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM (22 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, NH, WI, PA, OH (99 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC (42 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 185 electoral votes
Tossups: 141 electoral votes
Iowa -- almost off the table; might move it into the solid Obama territory next week.
Minnesota - Republicans report that the NRA's massive mailings and opposition to gun control is helping McCain gaining some traction in Northeast Minnesota's Iron Range and around Duluth, home to union Democrats and hunters. No statewide change in polls - indeed, Obama seems to be opening up a solid lead.
North Carolina: : Seems to be a big suburbanite swing among women in particular; still, the big question in NC is whether there'll be enough African Americans, young voters and Latinos to turn the state blue if the economy remains the top issue and if the Obama machine can turn out the votes. Obama has been here twice in as many weeks. Move from LEAN MCCAIN TO TOSSUP.
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