Obama Team And Dem Establishment Work To Bridge A Gap, And Ickes Now Thinks Obama Can Win

There is an affect gap between how members of the Democratic political establishment view the presidential race right now -- concerns, bordering on panic -- and where Barack Obama's campaign brain trust thinks the race is at -- a mix of confidence and sobriety, but nothing approaching rank worrying.

This gap has a lineage. Jimmy Carter's Atlanta campaign headquarters and the National Democrats had their moments, as did the National Dems and Bill Clinton's Little Rock headquarters. Both sides argued, then fought, and then drew insights from each other, and Democrats managed to win the White House. (1988...and 2000...were a little different).

Call this first group National Democrats. They see 55 days left, an Obama campaign dropping in national polls, an enthusiastic Republican base, a public that, darn it, seems to like Sarah Palin, an Obama campaign that can't figure out how to respond to a changed dynamic, and, on top of all of that, millions left to raise.

Chicago Democrats notice that John McCain is doing better in traditionally Republican states outside of the West; that an engaged Republican base changes the map, that Obama is winning right now in every state that John Kerry won plus Iowa and New Mexico, and that the remaining electoral votes he needs could come from Nevada. Or Colorado. Or Montana. Or Virginia. The fundamentals are strong; the election will turn back to the economy; everything is OK. The campaign is about Barack Obama versus John McCain, and on November 4, it will be about Barack Obama and John McCain.

Every few weeks, former Sen. Tom Daschle, now a close confidant of Obama's, convenes a passel of charter members of the Democratic political establishment in his office conference room Washington.  Daschle usually brings along a guest from the Obama campaign's upper echelon. The guest briefs; the lobbyists, politicians and consultants talk politics.

The participants included Sen. John Kerry, former Indiana Rep. Tom Roemer, and James Johnson -- all Obama allies -- and former Michigan Gov. James Blanchard and lobbyist Michael Berman and and superlawyer Robert Barnett -- all supporters of Hillary Clinton in the primary.

Today's meeting, described by several who attended, began with a well-received briefing by deputy campaign manager Steve Hildebrand. State by state, he took the group through the campaign's battleground strategy, made note of its budget assumptions (the campaign is ahead of its goals, he said) and bragged about a well-oiled turnout machine. Even Democrats outside of Chicago are confident that the Obama field operation will be gangbusters, thanks in large part to Hildebrand's efforts over the past year.

The National Democrats wanted to know: why is the campaign focusing on Sarah Palin? Why does Obama seem defensive?

They were told not to panic.

One lobbyist got angry, calling the campaign "arrogant;" another archly wondered why an Obama fundraiser was suddenly asking Democrats in DC to raise more than $25 million for what the campaign hopes will be a quick reaction fund for direct mail pieces in states. (The meeting wasn't a fundraising pitch and lobbyists can't contribute or raise money.)

Those exchanges led some folks who attended to describe the meeting as "tense," but others, including Hildebrand and Clinton strategist Harold Ickes, disagree.

Hildebrand describes the meeting as "most helpful."

"I love these people and they've always had nothing but constructive ideas for the campaign," he said. "It did not get testy."

He said he gave out his e-mail to the 85 people who attended, and in the few hours since the meeting, many have already e-mailed him with thoughts.
Harold Ickes, the Clinton strategist who told a reporter earlier this summer that he did not think Obama could win, was among those who found the briefing "realistic." 

Of the perceptual differences between Chicago and Washington, he said:  "Washington is littered with handwringers. I think that as people see the polls tighten, they get increasingly worried, and that's against the backdrop of way too much optimism of a couple months ago."

But, he said, "I think the Obama campaign is doing a masterful job of focusing on key states and targeting voters and trying to persuade those voters and ultimately getting them to vote."

So he now thinks Obama can win?

"Oh, yes. Yes. There's rhetoric in campauigns. We were in a hard fought primary. I think Obama can win, but I always that, because of the particular characteristics of this race, it is going to be a very tough race."