McCain pollster Bill McInturff and chief of strategy Sarah Simmons want you to know that they're convinced that the ABC News Washington Post poll out this morning is an outlier and "not at all indicative" of what the campaign sees in in the states.
McInturff told reporters this morning that he considered the poll problematic because party identification trends were not factored in the results, undecided voters were pushed to choose a candidate, and the 16 point party identification gap was much too big. McInturff said that McCain will win of the party ID gap is reduced to four points or so -- today, he estimates that Republicans are down six to eight points.
But so does ABC News. Their measure of unleaned -- as in -- non-pushed -- party identification among their likely voter sample was 37% for Democrats and 30% for Republicans -- a spread of seven points.
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A National Public Radio survey of 14 battleground states on the eve of the debate gives McCain a narrow, within-the-margin of error lead over Obama, reversing a slight Obama lead last month. The poll, taken between 9/18 and 9/20, also shows that Wal-Mart shoppers prefer John McCain, which would seem to contradict data showing that voters making less than $100,000 a year support Barack Obama. The poll does find large gains for Obama on attributes like authenticity and honesty and gives him a 9 point advantage on economy handling.
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Marist gives Obama a double-digit lead in Iowa and a slight lead in New Hampshire.
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And the Diageo-Hotline tracking poll suggests that Obama has regained a lead among white women....
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