I'm moving North Carolina from "lean McCain" to tossup because public and private polls show a surge of support there for Sen. Obama. (I've even seen a private poll showing Obama narrowly ahead.)
Next week, I might move Minnesota from "Lean Obama" to tossup. That's TBD.
Here's the map as of 9/25:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: IA, MN, NM (22 electoral votes)
Marginal toss-ups: FL, MI, NH, WI, PA, OH, NC (114 electoral votes)
True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA (27 electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT SD (43) electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 212 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 185 electoral votes
Tossups: 141 electoral votes
Your thoughts?
« Overlooked? | Main | Couric And Palin Part II » Midweek Move: North Carolina Is A Tossup25 Sep 2008 10:36 am Comments (46)
Rasmussen has Obama up 2 in NC today. Rasmussen's shifts are glacial, so if they're showing him up, I think it definitely reflects a concrete LEAD for Obama. NH is weird though. Whereas Obama gains in all the other toss-ups, he's sliding in NH? I think McCain's going to take it. My predictions: Obama holds all Kerry states except NH. Wins VA, IA, CO, NM, NC and, yes, NV. I think McCain's gambit is going to put the nail in the coffin. 
Please explain how pollsters, and reporters who report on polls, account for the unreachable "cell phone" voters. Should we basically add a few points to Obama's numbers and take a few away from McCain? Of what use are these polls if a huge demographic is basically being left out, especially if that demographic is disproportionately in favor of one candidate over the other?
I think many pollsters are accounting for cell phone voters. A trickier issue, I think, is party ID which keeps shifting and obviously has a huge impact on the results. Then there's the means by which pollsters define "likely" voters - and the wild card of how many brand new voters show up. As for McCain's stunt- if people surge to him based on this transparent ploy to avoid/delay his and/or Palin's debate I will be truly disgusted. Enough is enough!
Indiana is definitely a toss-up. A true toss-up. The support for Obama there is insane, and they have a HUGE ground operation there, churning out new registrants and shoring up support. The polls aren't a fluke - Indiana has a real shot to go for Obama. I would say more so than North Carolina, even.
Also, CO as a true toss-up? Shouldn't that be in the lean Obama column? The polls there are showing anywhere from a +3 to a +10 lead for Obama. Definitely seems more concrete than a toss-up. Your other states looks about right, though.
I'd say Colorado should be moved to marginal tossup (favoring Obama), otherwise it looks good.
Ann Selzer, arguably the pollster in the business, has Obama up in Indiana and other polls have that state very competitive. If it holds for to weeks, will it be the next to move into the toss-up category?
Great comment from AlexG. This election has game changers every minute. It feels like we're already 14 news cycles past the McCain campaign suspension. Need to do a wait and see on the state of the race every time there's something crazy like this. (That snap poll yesterday was absurd.) Marc, don't say what you're gonna do next week for Minny -- that's four years away. Kaus makes a nice point -- do you get the sense that a McCain presidency would be exhausting?
I am curious..... Not that it will play a crucial role in the election (hopefully), but why is WV a "solid McCain" state? It's a state that has gone democratic every year since '64 or something I think. And Obama was only behind 4 points there in a recent poll. I understand he get pounced by Hillary....but that was by another democrat. No one gives him any chance there solely because of presumed racism?
I am not quite sure, Marc, how you can refer to Colorado as a true tossup, when conservatively it seems to be a marginal tossup, which in fact has leaned rather consistently Obama. Also, I'd start taking a look at West Virginia. Strong McCain might be too strong a description. As for your Marginal Tossups, one of those states is not like the others, and I think it's Wisconsin. It is a state, like Minnesota, which is subject to all the quirks of polling you've highlighted this week: under representation of (college and young urban) cell phone users, high numbers of unaffiliated voters, etc. But polling in MI and WI completely belies Obama's dominance in these states during the primaries, and in my opinion, a trend that seems more like static than true dead heat.
Yeah, actually, I agree with Brian. Take WI out of marginal toss-up and put in the Lean Obama column, and take MN out of Lean Obama and put in marginal toss-up until more polls come out with a strong Obama lead.
correction: MN, not MI
Ditto on Colorado. The polls are so favorable for Obama, and there have been two structural changes in the state race in favor of the Democrats (the convention and the VP pick of Palin, who independents really, really dislike here), it's hard to see why it's not "lean Obama" -- at least until McCain shows some positive movement in the polls.
McCain says he has suspended his campaign but is still running attack ads against Senator Obama in North Carolina. I saw one this morning on NBC around 8:05am. Voters will see through McCain's latest gimmick.
RE: West Virginia Commenters here are correct when they say that calling WV "Strong McCain" might not be exactly accurate. It's definitely "Lean McCain". But while there haven't been a lot of polls out of that state, the last three - all released within the last 2 weeks - have shown Obama trailing by only 4-5 points in that state. Neither campaign has really done anything in that state. Just because he got trounced there in the Dem primary doesn't mean it's a lost cause. I wouldn't spend anymore than a few bucks there if I were the Obama campaign, but maybe a Biden visit a few ads could help. (Note that the state is probably already getting some ad seepage from Ohio, PA and VA)
1) I'd think about moving both Indiana and MN to marginal toss-up status. As one instance, the RCP average has MN +2.8% for Obama and Indiana +2.3% for McCain. 2) Does the spate of good polling for Obama in Colorado merit a shift from true toss-up to at least marginal toss-up? 4 straight polls have Obama at 50% or higher. Other than that, this sure captures my feel for the data. Of course, all I have access to is info on polls that have been made public.
I think it's safe to say that South Dakota and Georgia are safe McCain. Otherwise, I think you're spot on.
This is all silly. Here's how it's gonna go down: Obama will win all of Kerry's states and their 252 electoral votes. McCain can try for a Hail Mary in Michigan all he wants, it's not going to happen. Obama will also win Iowa's 7 EVs, there's no question about it. Regionalism, pride in providing Obama his first victory and McCain's strong opposition to ethanol subsidies make this one a lock. So he's got 259 electoral votes that are pretty safe, and 8 ways he could pass 270: 1. Winning Colorado and New Mexico He only has to do one of the above, and McCain has to successfully defend all of the above. He could lose Colorado OR New Mexico OR Nevada and still win, but not 2 of the 3.
Good thing the Obama people stayed in NC, VA and IN through last month's "he can never take those and is wasting his money" pundit bath. Bill could help in WV but--see last few days--that's not going to happen. Hmm. It leans McCain, but could be worth a few days hard push on the economy with some popular WV Dems? At least enough to make McCain pay attention? I live in MA, and no idea what's going on with NH. The last week and a half has been very mavericky, I guess, with the regulation bashing followed by fundamentals are sound followed by trying to randomly decapitate someone, anyone, followed by suspending his campaign except for Lady de Rothschild. It's been very bold and unpredictable, and I think NH likes his maverickness and vague no-taxes stuff.
Colorado should move to lean Obama and Indiana should move to toss-up. In the end, the true toss-ups will be FL, NC, OH, IN, NV and maybe NH and VA. Kerry states (other than NH) will fall in line to Obama. Notice that even if Obama loses all the above, it's a 269 tie which means Obama is POTUS.
I agree with Phil. WV is NOT a "Likely McCain". I don't know if it's a true tossup, but the level of support for BO and (probably more important) the DISLIKE of McCain is very surprising ... You should have breakfast in a diner here and see for yourself ...
Also worth noting, I suppose, that there is a nonzero chance McCain comes out of this week looking bold and statesmanlike and experienced. It's slim--I'd put it close to single digits--but it's not zero. But if the debates go ahead--and the logic for why Palin can't debate is comical--against a backdrop of Congress working things out around McCain's "time to have some meetings!!" interventions, I'd say there's at least a 50% chance that the Republican ticket emerges from those weeks about 2 feet tall, with the polls to match.
Here's a guess: McCain runs stronger than expected in MI, wins OH, and almost wins PA. And maybe NH.
I haven't seen much difference in the polling from the Dakotas. It seems to me that ND and SD should move in tandem. While they once looked marginally competitive, they're probably both in the likely McCain group now.
If you look Rasmussen in NH, it also shows Sununu with 52 per cent. It looks like there could be a considerable GOP lean in that state sample.
Too soon to say, but it's increasingly looking like McCain has to flip a sizable blue state, possibly even Pennsylvania, but perhaps only Wisconsin or Minnesota (assuming he holds Virginia). Otherwise he simply has to defend too many toss-ups. It'd be like winning 4 coin flips in a row. Best route to victory for McCain at the moment is flipping PA or one of the states in that general Great Lakes region.
A small, probably trivial question: Don't you have South Dakota and North Dakota mixed up? SD has consistently shown a larger lead for McCain than ND, which has been in the single digits until the last couple of polls, which were in the low teens. In fact, the Obama campaign, until pulling out to focus on Minnesota this week, had full field ops in ND, and almost nothing in SD. I was just wondering what your explanation was for seeing ND as likely McCain, and SD as leaning. It would seem to me they are/were the other way around, with ND slowly slipping towards likely.
I don't consider MI to be a toss up. It leans decidedly blue, and will be moving further blue. Obama will also outperform the MI polls by at least 2%
You're probably right that NC is moving into toss-up category. Of course, as Nate at 538 is fond of pointing out, it's extremely unlikely to be a tipping point statement, because if Obama wins there he has likely also won in Virginia, and thus gone over the top in EVs. The most likely scenario in which NC is decisive is if Obama drops one of the Rust Belt states, where PA is now shaping up as tougher than MI for him. But yeah, whatever the subtle combination of factors at work here, it's becoming increasingly clear that McCain can no longer take NC for granted.
I wish that you would have two marginal toss-up categories. One that says marginal toss-up favoring Obama, and one that says marginal toss-up favoring McCain. I assume that you have Florida, New Hampshire, Ohio and North Carolina in the marginal toss-up favoring McCain category, and that you have Michagan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin as marginal toss-ups favoring Obama. But I could be wrong. So why not make it explicit? Thanks.
Not sure why you are keeping Iowa and New Mexico as "lean Obama". He's up double digits in all of the most recent polls and McCain is pulling some of his staff out of Iowa.
Rebecca's scenario, 269-269, with Obama swiping the Bush-states of Iowa, New Mexico, and Colorado, and McCain taking back New Hampshire, looks quite possible. It may even be the single most likely map out there, (though that's not saying much -- obviously any particular map is quite unlikely given the number of variables; surely no better than a 10% chance.) Anyway, in the event of a 269-269 tie, yes, Obama would probably have the advantage, but it would be anything but certain. Here's a good explanation of how it would work: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/the-269-269-electoral-tie_b_106637.html BTW, Bill Kristol floated the exact same 269-269 scenario, adding that it would be "fun." After 2000, I'm ready for about another century without such fun.
Don't you have South Dakota and North Dakota mixed up? Of course Marc has them mixed up. But cut the guy a little slack, it's not like he's paid to be a electoral pundit or anything!
You need to find a manipulable graphic that you can update from week to week. Those lists of state abbreviations are hard to process.
I would like to know how you justify Iowa as only Lean Obama. Iowa is a safe Obama state. Iowa doesn't like liars or phonies. Iowa likes leaders that share their values. That is why Obama has been on top (by more than a few) in every poll. Please explain? Thanks.
Obama would probably have the advantage, but it would be anything but certain. The tricky part is that you have to win a majority of all delegations, and not just voting delegations. So if 3 or 4 delegations tie, you could easily see a situation where it is impossible to get a majority. For that reason, I think the most likely outcome in the case of a 269-269 tie (and I agree that this is probably the most likely out of many outcomes at this point, maybe behind 273-265 (i.e., Obama wins all of the Kerry states plus IA, NM and CO)) is that you would see President Biden. For all of a week or so -- he'd surely select Obama to be his vice president, resign, and then be appointed Obama's vice president. (This assumes that Obama wins the popular vote, which I think is likely in most 269-269 scenarios.)
Based on where he was two weeks ago, the momentum is building for Obama. It will surely build some more. I saw a report that Florida counties are flooded with new registrants so much that they cannot cope. I think McCain is going to have another bad week. Barring catastrophes or a truly disastrous October surprise, I think Obama will win "going away" as they say in horse-racing.
I live in WI and I think it is very unlikely that Obama loses here. Of course something wierd could happen. I actually think the only midwest states McCain has a chance at are Ohio and Indiana, because of their very conservative and racially-prejudiced (in general) southern portions.
I think it's safe call NM and IA likely Obama -- they don't seem to belong in the same category as McCain's position in IN.
Yeah, Wisconsin doesn't belong in the tossups, it should be a "lean Obama." It would take something pretty dramatic to push it over to the McCain side.
One caution to my fellow Obama supporters here. Don't get too excited about the 269-269 tie scenario because if McCain is able to take New Hampshire then I think he also has a pretty good shot at getting the split electoral vote from Maine's 2nd District (the northern, sparsely populated 2/3 of the state). Just a quick recap (BTW, I'm a Mainer), Obama will almost certainly get the 2 statewide popular vote EVs and the 1st District EV, but every presidential election we wonder about the 2nd District EV. So, my concern is that the "269-269 tie" scenario would more likely shake out to be a "270-268 McCain Victory" scenario. Of course there's so much uncertainty regarding swing states and whatnot that it's just shooting in the dark to speculate, but I worry when I hear people say that a tie will equal an Obama victory.
The reverse of that is possible in Nebraska, where McCain will almost certainly win the state, but Obama might be able to pull out the congressional district surrounding Omaha.
Time to move CO out of the "true tossups" category, as RCP did yesterday. +5.4 isn't a tossup. North Carolina and New Hampshire could also both move into the "true tossups" category after the last couple days of polling.
Yeah, good point Curtis. I know jack-all about Nebraska, so I've got no idea of the plausibility of that happening. You?
My thoughts? It's good that you don't handicap elections for a living.
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McCain's Kabuki Theater performance from yesterday through the debate should mix these numbers up again, altho we can't possibly know how yet. The debate should be moved to Appomatox, and I expect McCain to arrive dressed as Grant, with muddied boots explaining how he's been doing the work of the people...Bread and Circuses--while Rome burns...
Posted by AlexG | September 25, 2008 10:43 AM