Palin Is A Black Swan

One of the best books on politics to come out this cycle is Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "The Black Swan."  It's not really about politics, but its core insight is one that even the smartest of analysts, prognosticators and campaign aides regularly ignore: You cannot predict the incidence or impact of highly improbable, high-impact events on any endeavor. Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't happen. Just because a vice presidential pick hasn't turned an election before does not mean that it will never turn an election.

Is Palin going to be another Spiro Agnew? An outsider pick who energized conservatives annoyed the media and then self-destructed?  That's what one hears from Democrats. Really. The reason why Democrats go there is because there is nowhere else to go. This has never happened before. We grope for metaphors and historical examples to try and predict a future full of unknown unknowns.

Elian Gonazles lived; his mother died; 200,000 Cuban-American votes were shifted.
Barack Obama gives a convention speech.
The White House has interns and Bill Clinton notices one.
Bush takes a picture from an airplane above Katrina because Air Force One can't land....
CBS News bolluxes a story on Bush's National Guard service
Florida ties!
Osama Bin Laden makes a tap a few days before the election.
When, in recent memory, has a presidential election been ordinary, routine, predictable?
Noticing the fundamentals -- Democrats have an advantage, the country has had it with President Bush and Republicans, Democrats are more enthusiastic and will have a better field organization, the economy is in the toilet -  is one thing.   But never underestimate the power of unpredictable events.