The Atlantic Electoral Map: 9/9

I'll start weekly analysis of the electoral vote....now.

The dynamics of the race are changing, but the electoral map seems remarkably stable. I base my categories on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA (190 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: IA, MN (17 electoral votes)

Toss-up: CO, FL, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, VA, WI, PA (131 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MO, MT, NC, SD (58 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (142 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 207 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 200 electoral votes

Why is Pennsylvania a toss-up?  The McCain campaign is competing ferociously there and has shown no signs of letting up. Democrats in the state worry about racial bias in the "T" -- two Democratic elected officials independently told two analysts I respect that they don't trust the polling right now. Same with Michigan: the polling gives Obama a lead. The environment in the state is very weird.

Wisconsin moves back to toss-up pending further analysis, but I suspect it will be back to lean-Obama shortly.

Missouri moves back to lean McCain because of the Palin effect on white women and from conversations with both the Obama and McCain campaigns. It could easily move back; the Obama campaign hasn't pulled a cent from the state. See here. http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/default.aspx?p=2

New Mexico could move to lean Obama.