External Events Drive Elections -- Forget strategy and tactics, it's events, like hurricanes, and how campaigns respond to events, that drive elections in the fall.
The Po-Mo Campaign -- The McCain campaign has gone thoroughly post-modern on us! Truth? Schmuth? It's all a struggle for power. And if the Obama campaign agrees with the media on a certain truth, it might be suspect. (The artificial construction employed by the McCain campaign here is that if the media wants to agree with the Obama campaign, well, go ahead.)
Some former administration officials will admit that one of the biggest coneptual flaws of the Bush administration was to treat the truth as a fudgable convenience; confidence isolated decision-makers; when real things happened -- Katrina, say -- rhetoric didn't exactly do the job.
The Obama campaign remains convinced that McCain isn't paying a penalty for delberately, knowingly and willfully misleading people.
The Press Has Turned -- The press has decided that McCain's distortions are more consequential than Obama's distortions, and they are calling McCain out for them. A "narrative" has been created. This turn has been accompanied by cheers from the pundit class that Obama has gotten meaner. Conservative activists may retrench.
Sarah Palin Needs Practice -- America's gut reaction to Sarah Palin has been positive, and so her stumbles during the Charlie Gibson interview might not really settle in. Forget the Bush doctrine: did Palin's preppers really not give her a crisp answer about how a McCain administration would differ from a Bush administration? Her knowledge of policy seemed to be an inch deep, making even Republicans even inside the McCain campaign nervous.
She did not come off as a credible vice president. The McCain campaign knows it, despite their spin, and the murder boards will continue.
There were rumors that she'd challenge Joe Biden to an early debate just to prove her bonafides. Ah, no.
Republicans Nervous About McCain Tactics -- Karl Rove is, and Steve Schmidt -- who is not a Rove acolyte -- probably couldn't care less.
Republicans Believe They Can Win -- Not a dirty little s
ecret, but there probably isn't a single Republican strategist now -- ok, maybe a few -- who doesn't believe that if McCain had picked Romney or Pawlenty, the election would be over.
Obama Doesn't Like Playing Mean -- When Obama is commanded to roll in the mud, he seems uncomfortable, annoyed and unsure of itself. And it doesn't usually work, because people pick up on his mixed internal dialogue. Now -- does that mean his campaign hasn't attacked McCain? Course not. They went after his age last week. It just means that Obama isn't comfortable being the heavy. Today, Joe Biden debuts a new speech in Michigan. It'll be heavy.
The Media Has Awful Obama Fundraising Sources -- Every month, we predict he's having trouble raising money. Everytime we do, we're wrong.
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