The Atlantic Electoral Map: 10/28

The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states.

Nevada moves off the toss-up list. On the basis of polling and other information, I judge it to lean Obama.  Journalist Jon Ralston keeps track of the early and absentee vote in Nevada, and the Democratic lead is fairly staggering - 20 percentage points in terms of the number of ballots returned. Younger Hispanics are turning out for the Democratic ticket, and Obama is overperforming in Republican counties, too. A McCain strategist insists the state is winnable.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA, NV  (94) electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NC, MO, IN (84) electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, MT, ND, WV, NE-2  (26) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, SD, KY, LA, MS, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (137) electoral votes)  

Obama: likely + leaners: 291  electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 163  electoral votes

Tossups: 84 electoral votes

 

Flip Tiers (in order of likelihood)

Iowa, New Mexico -- tier one.
Colorado, Virginia, Florida , Nevada -- tier two.
Ohio, North Carolina -- tier three.
Missouri, Indiana, Montana, Georgia -- tier four.