Some thoughts from Jennifer Rubin here.
Let's make it the question of the morning.
Can John McCain win Pennsylvania? How? Why? Why Not?
« The Real ACORN Scandal? | Main | Answering Your Questions: McCain = Gore? (Update) » Can McCain's PA Gamble Work?24 Oct 2008 10:56 am Comments (59)
It can work if they stop traveling to Colorado and giving major policy speeches on special needs kids while Rome burns. Typical of this campaign's problems, they announce a focus then immediately do three other things, distracting them from their original focus. If they want to win Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, they shouldn't bother traveling anywhere else. As to their actual chances of winning, I find it dubious that Obama is up 14, but just as doubtful that he's up 2. McCain needs something to grab voters' attention, and Joe the Plumber isn't it. 
McCain can't win PA. Why not? They voted Gore, Kerry and now people expect them to select the Republican this time? Was never gonna happen. It always made me laugh. Just wait and see what the turnout in Philly and it's burbs are...
52% of PA voters are registered as Democrats and Obama has largely solidified them. Calling Obama's ground game in Pennsylvania as top notch is an understatement and Philadelphia alone will carry the state for him. Every single recent poll has him leading by double digits. In fact, the last poll to show a McCain lead was back in April. Barring a crazy scandal, Pennsylvania is solid Obama country.
I just don't see how PA - my birth state - goes for McCain this cycle. While there are indeed patches of "Pennsyltucky" that will never vote for Barack HUSSEIN Obama, there are more populous areas that will vote pull the Democratic lever in droves. The turnout in Philly (and suburbs), Harrisburg, State College (PSU) and Pittsburgh will be huge. There are hundreds - if not thousands - of border state volunteers ready to pounce on the Keystone State in the coming days to GOTV. Rendell will likely get his wish for one more Obama visit in the coming days - I'm guessing on this - and Obama will win the state rather easily.
No. The polls are in double digits and have been for some time. I think this is either a) Giving donors an answer to "how can we win" by targeting one big state; b) A Dem trick, to "leak" an internal poll showing it very close and lure him in. Sounds crazy, but so does abandoning MO to focus on Iowa. There's an obvious candidate for "what could change things in PA" but most people can tell that's one lone sad person. Not the McCain campaign's fault. And I'd remind everyone that a fake assault claim could happen to any campaign, for a candidate or a ballot proposition.
I sort of buy the Roach Motel strategy put forth by someone yesterday on The Plank: Obama has been baiting McCain to go all in on PA -- the 'leaked' two-point lead internal poll, Rendell's PA panic. McCain is enough of a gambler to go for it. When in fact he should be shoring up the Bush 04 states (minus NM and IA). He's much closer in CO and VA than PA. I must say, McCain's campaign has been striking in its strategic incompetence.
The seeming over-confidence about PA has me concerned. I have to believe that McCain is basing the PA gambit on something. Marc--are there some "internals" to these PA polls we are missing?
McCain is down 12% in Pennsylvania and he has 11 days left. Obama is down by 10% in Texas. Has any candidate ever come back from a double-digit deficit in only 11 days? Hardly.
There is only one way that McCain can win PA, and that's the same way that Bush won FL in 2000 and OH in 2004. If you control the voting equipment or counting, you control the outcome of the election. But is it really possible to pull off 3 non-violent Coup d'etats in a row?!?
McCain's final gambit: Pray for a Racial Backlash in Hills and Dales of Western PA. Country First!
I think his already slim chances to win PA get even smaller if this "Pittsburgh mutilation" story does prove to be a hoax. Faked hate crimes have a pretty nasty history and it could force McCain to be a bit more constrained in his campaigning so as not to contribute to the feeling that he's stoking racism.
Exploitation of race resentment. Plain and simple.
Maybe the goal is: McCain needs Obama to think that McCain can win Pennsylvania. This causes Obama to pull out of Virginia, North Carolina, Indiana et. al. and fight for Pennsylvania. These states revert to partisan form. Net gain in electoral college for McCain even though he loses Pennsylvania. The strategy relies on Obama stupidly believing that McCain has some secret information: the magic in the internals
It's definitely a gamble...but perhaps something like this would help a bit... http://thirdbasepolitics.blogspot.com/2008/10/duck-season-wabbit-season.html
This is like being a FL Gator fan...you never relax unless they are 49 points ahead with less than one minute to go. I pray that the polls in PA and the other states are accurate, but I won't quit working on this campaign until Obama is declared the winner. I don't trust McCain...he's come back before.
Pennsylvania is safely in Obama's column. Morning Call/Muhlenberg tracking poll shows O-52, M-40 today. McCain has dropped two points overnight. Obama has been at or above 50% in every poll for weeks now. His lead in PA averages 12 percentage points. 538.com figures the odds of Obama winning PA at 99 to 1. All McCain is trying to do at this point is give his campaign something to work for as defending turf is not nearly as invigorating as taking the battle to the other guy. Unless McCain can pivot Virginia and Colorado the election goes to Obama unless something truly unexpected and game-changing happens between now and Election Day.
51% of registered PA voters are Dems; 38% are Reps. That's a net Dem advantage of over 1 million voters. 'Nuff said.
For some reason I keep picturing Tim Gunn walking over to the McCain strategists, looking at the numbers, putting his hand on his chin and saying, "I'm a little confused."
It's a huge gamble against very unfriendly polls and an equally unfriendly registration advantage for Dems, but honestly, he has to try something, right? May as well be this.
"The turnout in Philly (and suburbs), Harrisburg, State College (PSU) and Pittsburgh will be huge. I agree. Plus, there's the Biden effect. Joe Biden delivers the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton Democrats that might have been hesitant to vote for Obama. This area went large for Hillary in the primary partly because she was able to claim some roots due to her grandfather's cabin. They love the prospect of a local boy done real good.
I was born, raised, and still live in the Philadelphia area. I've worked on the Rendell (mayor and gov), Casey, and Nutter Campaigns. Firstly, Obama is going to get a stupidly large margin in Philly proper. Kerry won by 416K, I think Obama can get in the 475-500K range. That ought to just about balance out the massive looses he will get in the 'PA-T', from both Republicans and Hillary Dem's, not all of whom have 'come home'. That said, state wide elections are won in the Philly Burbs, Montgomery, Chester, Bucks, and Delaware counties. And in those areas its Married White Women with Kids who are the swing voters. These women are EMBARRASSED by Sarah Palin. Many of them are college educated, and know more about American Policy then Sarah Palin does, or at least they think so. Furthermore, this parallel America talk, has made many of these educated women personally offended. In large part because they themselves feel as though they are a part of the educated upper 'elite'. Or if they don't their greatest aspiration is that their children will join said elites. While Obama is butterflying to the finish, McCain is running underwater with a lead-ball tied to his ankle and running in the wrong direction at that. 14pts might be high, but I'd wager even money on a 10pt victory and an Election Day 8pm call. Can McCain win in PA, NFW!
While I think PA may be closer than the polls suggest, it does seem to me that the gap is just too wide for McCain to overcome. I also think Obama will have a huge ground game in the state as people from non-competitive Northeastern states like NY or MD, flood PA to volunteer. As a New Yorker, I receive at least 5 emails a week about going to PA or calling into the state. Obama even has a "Border States Director" in PA. I don't see how McCain can mount a strong enough ground game to overcome the current polls. Of course anything is possible . . .
I doubt he can win it, but I expect to see the polls in PA tighten quite a bit. I think it will be the inverse effect of what happened when he announced he was pulling out of Michigan. The bottom fell out of his numbers there, as Michigan voters apparently took his abandonment of their state as an affront. Pennsyvania voters will appreciate being placed at the center of the political universe for the last two weeks and may give McCain another look. I also think one factor in McCain's decision is that Pennsyvania doesn't have early voting. This gives them time to hope for something that changes the dynamic of the race. It also means that they hope that election day is a mess, depressing turnout and giving McCain a better chance of eke-ing out a win or making it close enough to litigate over. It's a risky strategy but probably their last best shot at this point.
I agree with most of the points others have made about the very low likelihood of McCain winning PA. Truth is, PA is really not a swing state anymore. Democrats have won the presidential elections since 1988, Rendell is governor, and Casey beat Santorum. Philly suburbs are now at least leaning Democratic, something few expected a decade ago. However, one reason for McCain to focus energy on PA is that the absence of significant absentee voting and early voting means that there are more available voters (in percentage terms) to convert. He's rapidly running out of time in states with early voting. Nonetheless, it's not likely to work.
Sure, McCain can win. In one word: Diebold. Or, two words: provisional ballots. Or three words: voter roll purge. Or in eight words: Osama bin Laden surrenders at McCain campaign headquarters.
No. http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/mccain-brings-hope-to-pennsylvania.html Best explanation, pointed out to me by my son, found it linked from your blogroll. Perhaps the most misleading title, should be mccain-brings-slime-to-pennsylvania Too dependent on racism in an environment where there are too many dems.
The Gator Fan is right. I'll believe it when the polls close and we get the word from the networks. That said, McCain could win PA. And I "could" have an affair with Cindy Crawford. We're both heterosexual. I know that she and I are both happily married and all, but it's still technically possible.
The McCain campaign is just bluffing to try and get Obama to waste time and resources on Pennsylvania. No doubt it will be closer than the polls suggest, but McCain can't possibly win the state.
For some reason I keep picturing Tim Gunn walking over to the McCain strategists, looking at the numbers, putting his hand on his chin and saying, "I'm a little confused." "This worries me...."
Agree with zic.
I think "can" is the wrong verb. The question is will John McCain win Penn's Woods, and the answer is no. Why won't he? Because the economic crisis only serves to underscore what has been happening to Pennsylvania for over thirty years. The blue collar jobs which once provided safe and easy entree into the middle class have disappeared, and they are never comming back. The Republican party under Reagan once provided a convincing message to Blue Collar workers: the Democratic party isn't doing anything for you so how about we cut your taxes and work on the social issues you care about together? McCain is still running on that platform, but the problem is it hasn't made the economic lives of these workers better. They may have been loathe to trust Obama before the market meltdown, but now they feel they have no choice. The democrats have done a really good job of selling their economic message to the middle and working classes, and Pennsylvanians, long mired in an economic malaise, are very willing to buy it.
I have heard reports from the field that McCain is making a serious play for white ethnics in Philly. The problem with this strategy, though, is that the seriousness of any play McCain makes on Obama's own turf will likely be dwarfed by Obama's own field operation. It is said that McCain's strategy to victory in Pennsylvania is shoring up support in GOP strongholds like Central PA and containing Obama's margins in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. The truth of this scenario is much more complicated than that. Pennyslvania is a much more heterogenious state than the simple "Pensyltucky" formulation espoused by many observers of the state's politics. The partisan composite in various regions of the state cannot be oversimplified as such. Within one state's borders, you have the Rust Belt (Pittsburgh), the Amtrak Corridor (Philly), the Twin Tiers (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre and the Lehigh Valley), and Appalachia (everyhwere else). If the demographics of the state were more balanced, a statewide campaign would face the same challenge as though it were running in Ohio, Maryland, New Jersey, West Virginia, and Upstate New York simultaneously. This, as we know, is not the case in Pennsyvlania, and the conventional wisdom recently has held that a Democrat need only win the Amtrak Corridor (Philly) to carry the whole state (see Ed Rendell). Just as a side note, I think much of why we see a much tighter race in Ohio, the most demographically analogous state to PA, is that there is no correlarly to the Amtrak Corridor and the Twin Tiers in that state. Whoever campaign wins Pennsylvania will be the one most attuned to the fundamental heterogeneity of the electorate there. Both campaigns may be looking at much tighter internals, but they are probably looking at a very precise regional breakdown as well. From what I've heard, the McCain campaign is more visible than expected in Philly right now. But from what I've also heard, those new Democratic regestrants aren't going to him this election cycle. The challenge for the Obama campaign in Philly is to offset through new and "base" voters any gains made my McCain on the margin. They need also to perform (not overperform, but merely perform) as expected for a Democrat in Pittsburgh (where even John "Heinz" Kerry didn't exactly kill). I've also heard reports of better than expected Democratic polling and regeitration in some GOP pockets like Southwestern and Central PA. The Dems won't carry these regions, but just as McCain can tamp down Obama's margins, Obama can do the same to McCain in other parts of the state. The Northern Tier is a harder nut to crack; both campaigns are making a very spirited run for this region by appealing very explicitly to its Blue Collar sensibilities (through Biden, Palin, and to a lesser extent, the Clintons). I also predict a wash in this area, but I don't know enough about the region's voting history to know if this is typical. Both campaigns have cause for optimism. There is indeed a tactical method to McCain's madness by making a play for PA, but I'm skeptical (though biased) about their overall strategy being sound. These double-digit leads for Obama may be deceptive, but they certainly aren't coming from nowhere, and like everywhere else in the country, McCain's is a campaign that's playing to one tack and one tack only: turning out its base. And turning out your own base can only carry you so far when the other side has been cultivating a strategy for over a year now of obviating any gains you make in the form of new votes. But we'll see: I was in New Hampshire last January, I've learned to except anything.
I don’t understand this gamble! The McCain campaign is either the most inept campaign in the history of political campaigns or the most brilliant. I go with the former. They should be spending their previous resources in shoring up Bush 04 states, like CO and VA. They have a better chance and closer in the polls than PA. In fact Obama has a better chance to win GA and WV than McCain wining PA.
well Drudge sure thinks he knows how McCain can win. - By SCREAMING at the tops of his FONT that all the black men in PA are going to cut up all the white women. But seriously, race baiting stunts like this are all they have left... Will they work? Maybe... Does it matter whether or not she is lying, is the damage already done? Maybe... I always thought if Obama got close to winning it would get ugly late, but honestly this kind of stuff shocks me. PS- in hindsight, bet she wishes she had gone with an "O". That looks the same forward and backward.
Short Answer: NO. 1. Most polls have McCain down by 12%. (See, e.g., SurveyUSA 53, 41). 2. Ed Rendell, Bob Casey and attendant machinery. 3. Obama has 81 field offices, filled with cash and highly enthused volunteers. 4. More registered Democrats in the State. 5. News reports of high early voting turnout among blacks and youths in other states. 6. Dow continues to drop today. Accordingly, stories regarding Biden gaffee and Joe the Plumber continue to be seen as secondary to economy.
I suspect what we're seeing with the PA push is one of two things. 1) McCain, Schmidt et al. are in the denial stage of the grieving process. They have deluded themselves into believing they have a chance in PA, when they clearly do not. 2) Schmidt and other top campaign officials realize this race is lost, but they're taking McCain along for the ride to PA. Basically, they're being good party soldiers, putting up a brave front to keep the Paliniacs making calls and knocking on doors. But the whole thing is just a last-ditch effort to save a lot of down-ballot races where the bottom could fall out if the GOP base starts to realize Obama is a shoo-in. I tend to believe (1). And I'm undecided as to whether the effect of either scenario is convincing enough to prevent Republican demoralization and a real bloodbath on Election Day, one that would involve the Republicans losing high-20s House seats and 9-11 Senate seats.
For some reason I keep picturing Tim Gunn walking over to the McCain strategists, looking at the numbers, putting his hand on his chin and saying, "I'm a little confused." Not gonna lie, that made me LOL for real. "I don't quite understand what's going on *gestures wildly at McCain camp map*. JUST MAKE IT WORK. Or you'll be gone."
Shortest Answer yet: IT WON'T MATTER... Why? Obama is now up 1% in Georgia according to a local Republican leaning Pollster
Impossible. The HRC argument: The conflation of HRC's win in the primary with a McCain win in the general is a joke. Pennsylvania was a closed primary; HRC won the majority of democrats 55% to 45%. Most or nearly all of the registered democrats are expected to vote Obama. Also: Obama leads in vote-rich counties. How can McCain reverse these? He can't. Which brings me to my last point: Obama has much better ground game.
Barring the kind of cataclysmic event/revelation which might reverse voter preferences across the board, no, McCain can't win PA. The reasons: 1) he's already attacked on every imaginable level and it hasn't worked. In fact, from Obama's perspective, his attacks have been the gift that's kept on giving. McCain's failed to realize that it is just those tactics which alienated independents in the first instance. Who, with a working brain, uses a cattle prod to lure back cows that stampeded initially BECAUSE the prod was used? 2) there is no new message McCain can advance, no new plan or proposal, that will swing the independents his way, because all such moves at this point would appear as just another part of the erratic, flip-flopping, poll-driven (i.e., insincere) pattern he's practiced this entire campaign and which alienated that group ab initio. Independents are the last group to be swayed by cheap stunts, false crises, and melodrama (e.g., McCain "suspending" his campaign). Right now, McCain's in danger of becoming the little boy who cried wolf. Thus, McCain can't credibly tear Obama down, and can't plausibly build himself up. His fate, IMO, stands or falls with events exclusively within Obama's control. That is, if the O-Bomb doesn't blow it somehow, he wins. Obama and his top people are the smartest and most focused and disciplined such group in the history of presidential politics. While many of us were screaming at our TVs during the debates, Obama stayed cool and avoided attacking back, even when McCain's charges were wildly, obviously stupid. I thought Obama lost the first and third debates and would have bet big bucks on it. But had I, of course, I'd be a lot more broke now than I already am. Plouffe, Axelrod, Gibbs & Obama have proven themselves to be geniuses. They have foreseen, planned for, and executed their game plan flawlessly from start to finish, with no leaks, no apparent acrimony, and under tremendously stressful conditions. I could write 10,000 words on that topic, but the point I'm making is the likelihood of Obama or his team blowing it at this point is close to zero. So no, McCain can't/won't win PA. (Just to be safe, though, it might not be a bad idea for Biden to come down with "the flu" pretty soon, keep him "bedridden" through 11/4. After that, let him "recover" whenever he wants).
You're probably gullible enough to believe he does, Marc, but he doesn't. Fifteen point registration advantages don't lie. And neither does a pollster.com average lead of 15 points (it's really time you stopped with the RCP crap you cite).
I'm a strong believer that the national polls set the stage for what's possible or not. Once October comes and you hit the last debate, most states move more or less in lock step, with maybe 2-3 points variation down the stretch. If you're talking about, conservatively, a 6 pt. Obama lead nationally, and a state that went for Kerry in 2004, and clearly limited (at least in comparison) financial resources for the McCain campaign, it just ain't gonna happen. In 2004, Pennsylvania went for Kerry by about 2.5%, and Bush beat Kerry in the national popular vote by about 2.4%. So, assume Pennsylvania has a five point lean in the Dems' favor. Do the math. Unless you're talking about a McCain national popular vote victory, there is no chance PA goes Republican. I suppose it's possible McCain could throw a ton of resources into PA and lose by 5, but then he's going to lose a bunch of other Bush 2004 states and end up with less than 200 electoral votes, maybe even less than 150. Really the only option left is something along the lines of what Mike Murphy suggested. Some big gesture to talk to the entire nation and try to move the national numbers significantly. But even that is a last ditch effort and probably won't work.
I could be wrong though. If they can get McCain staffers to carve Obama's entire name (including Hussein of course) into heir faces, one letter and one staffer at a time, then all bets are off.
This is the last desperate move of a campaign in dire straits. It won't work and here's why... McCain is hoping beyond hope for racism to work against Obama in PA. It's working in West Virginia, so why not in the Appalachia areas of Pennsylvania. And that's what makes this move so sad. Polling averages show Obama leading by over 10-points in the Keystone State. Any sort of "Bradley effect" will be countered strongly by urban and suburban Democrats and independents. History shows us that Republicans have made plays for Pennsylvania for the last several election cycles, and while it's always close, they come up short each and every time. The state hasn't gone Republican for president since 1988. And with Obama showing very comfortable leads at the moment, I think McCain's gamble is a losing one.
No. In order to win PA, he has to fight to a draw in the Philly burbs. The notion that he could do this was predicated on primary performance in the suburban counties. But it's now clear that these voters are for Obama by a substantial margin; after all, Kerry won three of four suburban counties and lost the fourth 52-48. No margin in The T can possibly make up the difference.
Looking for input from the serious political junkies on this site: All the right-wing sites that are still projecting optimism are basing it on Secret Internal Polls, leaked to them by insiders, that show the race is still close. Can this possibly be real? If the McCain people have such polls, what possible reason could there be for keeping them secret? Isn't optimism critical to turnout?
No it can't work it is a stupid idea. If McCain did somehow win PA I would assume that there was some serious cheating. Obama has been up too much too often for too long.
Gin up racial resentment in Western PA. If he can run up big margins in Allegheny, Washington, & Beaver counties, he could have a shot. This is also predicated on McCain not getting blown out in places like Bucks county.
Obama can enjoy this, cause he can go and pick off Georgia, or Indiana, or somewhere else, and it becomes academic. It seems journalist have nothing to write about apart from a false story in PA, it's over, it's just wheter it's a technical landslide
Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida are McCain's only route to 270. Fear-mongering Appalachian whites and Florida Jews are his only means of overtaking Obama in those states. For the next 10 days, the sewers are going to back up through the phones of those voters.
Looking for input from the serious political junkies on this site: All the right-wing sites that are still projecting optimism are basing it on Secret Internal Polls, leaked to them by insiders, that show the race is still close. Two things: internal polls are just polls. They're subject to the same margins of error and methodological problems as public polls. And some of the public pollsters are very good at what they do. The fact that some McCain internal poll shows a 2-point race in PA, while a slew of public polls show a 10-point race should lead us to believe that McCain's internal poll is an outlier, not that they know something we don't. Second: it is very unusual for Presidential campaigns to directly release their internal polls to anyone, including hardcore partisans. They may talk about the results on background, but straight-up releasing the poll is something you only see in down-ballot races, to gin up enthusiasm for a candidate whose chances might otherwise appear to be dwindling. So while I don't think that the McCain campaign's failure to release their internal polls is any indication that their polls aren't as tight as they're implying, there's also no particular reason to trust their polls over other polls. Conclusion: despite what the McCain campaign and conservative bloggers are saying, PA is out of reach.
This seems crazy to me. PA has gone to the democrats in every election since 1988. Obama has led by double digits for about a month and there is an even more massive registration edge than ever. It certainly seems like a more likely route to victory for McCain to try to win the Bush states minus IA and NM. Still an uphill climb, but he's closer in VA, CO, FL, or OH than he is in PA.
Forget About PA, McCain is a gambling addict in real life. He has a history at Las Vegas casinos. PA'rs do not want a real gambler in WH.
Maybe some video of a marauding band of hefty black men in hip hop Obama wear fondling, "mutilating" and robbing McCain’s young, white, female College Republican campaign workers all over Pennsylvania?
I'm from central PA, and I think what McCain is doing is (dramatically) too little, too late. This past summer, before the Palin pick, there may have been a chance for him to shore up a considerable number of votes in PA, since many working-class Democrats were still wary of Obama, and many independents remember fondly the McCain of 2000. The economic crisis, the Biden VP pick, and the erratic nature of the McCain campaign of the past month, not to mention an amazing ground game from the Obama campaign have gotten them to take another look at Obama, and having surrogates like Casey and Rendell may prove to be very helpful. No matter how large the number of votes he draws up in central, western and northeastern PA, it won't be enough to balance out what looks to be an unprecedented turnout in Philadelphia and the suburbs. PA is among the states with the highest number of colleges and universities on the East Coast, and it's probably the highest among the 'battleground' states. Yes, there are a lot of old people in PA, but it's likely that Obama will get a significant number of students to vote for him, and that just might make the difference. All of this is just another way for McCain to dominate the news cycle, if only for a few days.
I really appreciate the intelligent and informed opinion on this blog.
If JOHN KERRY could win Pennsylvania by boosting turnout in Philly and Pittsburgh and on the college campuses, do you really think Obama won't be able to do the same? His organization here is ten times what Kerry's was.
Take a look at how many counties in PA voted for McCain, it looks like 66% of the counties If the federal government increases the taxes and ignores the concerns/views of this portion of the population we will face FURTHER division. This election was decided 52% to 48%. PRAY FOR OUR MILITARY. WE CAN BE HAPPY FOR THOSE THAT WILL GET TO COME HOME---I AM SURE THEY WILL BE CONCERNED FOR---THE TROOPS THAT WILL BE FEWER IN NUMBERS AND LEFT BEHIND. McCain is a class act, a great American---God Bless him. Look out America---Sarah Palin will not be forgotten!
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16 out of the last 18 polls in PA have obama up double digits. The other two have him up 8 and 7. There have been huge registration gains for Dems in PA. PA is going blue.
Posted by BR | October 24, 2008 11:03 AM