Counterevidence Watch: GOP Early Vote In California

During the next eight days, this column will be on the lookout for counterevidence to support the theory that John McCain is closer in the mirror than he appears to me.... often, thanks to confirmation bias, we neglect evidence that doesn't fit with our theory. So here's an effort to make sure that evidence and anecdotes that contradict our theory get a full airing.  The theory, one should be clear, is that Barack Obama is winning.

Item: a RedState Red Alert diary claims that

California has begun early voting already as well as mail-in balloting. The number of people who have gone in to vote in person has been extensive. The results so far prove what we had always suspected. The polls are being proven as totally unreliable. Although the results of early balloting have not been disclosed,of course,how many Republicans and how many Democrats have voted has been revealed.

The results are simply shocking. The polls showed Barack Obama with an 18 point lead in California just a few days ago. The results thus far are the complete opposite. In the most liberal state in the entire country,the results are that 99,000 Republicans have voted and 96,000 Democrats voted. In the mail-in balloting the results so far are that 9,000 Democrats sent in their ballots and that 5,000 Republicans did so. So with nearly 210,000 people having voted,the Democrats have only a 1,000 vote advantage !

Analysis:  Context is important. Early voting is very popular in California, and Republicans tend to vote at higher rates than Democrats. More conservative areas of the state tend to vote early; Los Angeles County traditionally has the lowest early voting rate. Don'tknow if the above statistics are correct, but if they are, they're not usual for that state.

More importantly though, if Republicans believe that the party breakdown of who is voting early is indicative, then what do they think about what is going on in Nevada, Iowa, New Mexico, Ohio, Indiana, and North Carolina?

Verdict: Nothingburger.

Have some counterevidence to submit to the jury? E-mail me.