Counterevidence Watch: The Turnout Proportions In Nevada

Where this column deliberately displays counterevidence to the conventional wisdom. We are bound by confirmation bias to disregard evidence that does not comport with what we've already concluded. This exercise helps to shake off those cobwebs.

In the Nevada early vote, younger voters and Hispanics aren't turning out in the numbers that some thought they would be:

While turnout statewide was nearly 25 percent through Sunday, it was just 20 percent among Hispanic voters, 14 percent among voters under 30 and 15 percent among those who didn't vote in the last three elections, according to an analysis of state early voting records through Sunday prepared by America Votes, an organization that works to mobilize voters.

The data provide a glimpse into the composition of the more than 300,000 Nevadans who had taken advantage of early voting over the first nine days of the 14-day period. The information comes from proprietary databases that political action groups purchase from commercial vendors, cross-referenced with the public data the state releases showing who has voted.

Traditionally, older people, whites and people who vote consistently tend to turn out at the highest rates overall, said David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV. But this year, much has been made of the idea that the youth vote, the Hispanic vote and first-time voters would turn out at unprecedented rates, galvanized by a heightened political climate and the candidacy of Democratic nominee Barack Obama.

"I would have expected those numbers to be a little higher," Damore said. "At the same time, the people who come out for early voting may tend to be the tried and true."

The idea that the electorate will be radically reshaped this year remains an open question, he said, and it's possible the Obama campaign faces a challenge turning out the untested voters it's relying on to win. 

Comments

See - McCain is going to shoot the moon with the swing states and win the election.

Or, if he doesn't, at least we Republicans can claim it was stolen from us by ACORN, thereby delegitimizing Obama's win.

Posted by Donna | October 29, 2008 4:04 PM

On youth voters and HIspanics, UNLIKE African American increased turn out, the advantage with these voters does not relate to an increased head count but rather an increased advantage among them statistically.

For instance, in NV, GWB lost hispanics narrowly while Obama is carrying the same group by a healthy margin of 20%+. With youth and new voter turn out, same story.

You don't have to watch for increased head counts (unlike AA populations), what you have to look for is a monolithic consolidation of support among the demographic and that tells the story of where the vote margin comes from.

Additionally, this story completely fails to mention the fact that Democrats are out doing Republicans in a reversal from 2004 in early voting there; that is certainly worth mentioning as Democrats tend to be the most predictive descriptive you can muster.

Lastly, Polling got you down about Obama nationally? Then please, Read Chris Bowers and thank me later.

Posted by Steven | October 29, 2008 4:06 PM

I went to rural Nevada last weekend to knock on doors for Obama. I am from Yerington, NV originally, but we went to Hawthorne, which is even more in-the-middle-of-effing-nowhere than Yerington is.

What I found is every single solid-Obama voter on my list had already voted. The only two exceptions were people under 40; I probably met 20 or 30 people over the age of 60 who had already voted for Obama, and were super excited about it.

I saw probably three McCain-Palin signs all day, compared to maybe 12 Obama signs. And this really is the boonies, folks. The McCain campaign is relying on robocalls and crazy Obama's-a-terrorist hate mail (some voters showed it to us). McCain doesn't have any volunteers in Hawthorne, and the Obama office was close to turning volunteers away. They sent me and my wife 30 miles down the road to knock on 17 doors in Mina, NV. The Obama campaign is clearly taking rural Nevada *very* seriously.

Posted by Jason Pontius | October 29, 2008 4:09 PM

Unless you have proof of voter fraud, which is different than voter registration fraud, you can't claim a stolen example.
Someone illegally registering "Mickey Mouse" inflates the voter rolls, but an election is not stolen unless someone shows up at the polling station with a photo ID saying "Mickey Mouse" and is allowed to vote.
It's a really simple difference between voter registration fraud, and voter fraud, and the fact that Republicans can't tell the difference explains why their party is imploding in a country where self-proclaimed conservatives outnumber self-proclaimed liberals 2 to 1.

Posted by Martin | October 29, 2008 4:11 PM

The more interesting comparison would be to compare the make-up of early voters in 2004 to the make-up of early voters this year (rather then comparing from the all voters in 2004). I think the article is right to say that whether youth vote goes up is still an open question.

Posted by Greg | October 29, 2008 4:14 PM

Marc, somehow you neglected to mention that the early voting statistics in Nevada are 53% Democrat to 33% Republican. I don't care what the breakdown is, that's pretty good news for Obama.

Posted by Jake | October 29, 2008 4:16 PM

14% is a healthy numbers, since it appears young voters are less likely to vote early. 20% is a very healthy number for Hispanic voters, who historically have very low turnout numbers.

I note that in NC the % of 18-29 voters has gone up from 11.0 to 12.3%, so I think in the end we just have to wait until election day.

In the end I don't think Obama will radically alter the composition of the electorate. If African-Americans make up 30% more of the electorate than their usual share, and the youth vote goes up from 14% to 16-17% I think that would be on the high end of what's doable.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | October 29, 2008 4:16 PM

Jason,

why did those younger voters not vote? do you think they will? I'm trying to figure out if young voters are just procrastinators or what. thank you!

Posted by bigassbrando | October 29, 2008 4:23 PM

I think Jon Ralston's word still stands.

Partisan ID is a stronger Democratic vote indicator than Hispanic ethnicity or youth; we count on 90ish% of Dems to vote Obama, not nearly that high for Hispanic voters overall or young voters overall. And since we know the partisan ID of early voters is majority Dem (more than GOPers and indies combined), and that the early voting electorate is far more Democratic than it was at the same stage 4 years ago when Kerry lost Nevada only 51-48, then we have a pretty good idea that Obama has a real advantage regardless of the demographic breakdown of Democratic voters.

Posted by DCCyclone | October 29, 2008 4:27 PM

Remember, Obama is relying on these new voters to win by a large margin. When you use Gallup's traditional likely voter model, Obama is still ahead. Everything points to a good night for Obama next Tuesday when using a traditional voter model(normal black turnout; normal youth turnout; normal new voter turnout). It is only when companies use the more aggressive turnout models do Obama's number get up to 8, 9, or 10 points nationally.

This is the biggest problem for McCain that I see, as even with the electorates of the past he is losing by 2-3 points to a black guy with a terrorists name.

Posted by Brian | October 29, 2008 4:31 PM

ACORN hasn't stolen anything. Anyone who makes that argument plainly doesn't understand what ACORN does, and how it affects the vote, if at all. ACORN is no more capable of stealing an election than you are, Donna. In the eyes of some people, Obama's win won't be legimitate because they refuse to believe that the American people can actually wrest control of our government from the conservative media, corporations, and lobbyists who have been calling the shots for far too long. Is President Obama going to fix everything? Of course not, but he's going to put justice and fairness back into the equation, and that, in and of itself, is going to be a DRAMATIC improvement.

Posted by Joe | October 29, 2008 4:42 PM

Being a young voter (20) of Hispanic decent (Mexican) I have to express disappointment in my peers for not voting early. Jesus. I mean, they only have until Tuesday to get out and vote. I mean, it's not like they have a week to get out there.

School isn't that important, is it? Perhaps working is tantamount to voting.

I know plenty of people who are scheduling to take Tuesday off of school and work to vote on Tuesday, so an analysis such as this doesn't hold much water in my opinion.

I remain optimistic about the two voting blocs I represent getting to the polls in record numbers. I haven't ever seen so much energy among the youth demographic when it has come to this election. There is a difference between observing historical voting trends of young voters and actually being in the midst of it in a time such as this.

Some of my professors are canceling class because too many students are taking the day off for voting/GOTV efforts.

I think many people who don't expect the youth vote to be motivated and actually turn out will be in for a surprise.

That's based on my own observations.

Posted by Josh | October 29, 2008 4:50 PM

Hey, Joe - I didn't claim that ACORN would actually be capable of stealing the election. I said that we're going to SAY that ACORN stole the election.

Big difference.

Posted by Donna | October 29, 2008 4:51 PM

Someone illegally registering "Mickey Mouse" inflates the voter rolls, but an election is not stolen unless someone shows up at the polling station with a photo ID saying "Mickey Mouse" and is allowed to vote.

To flip a lot of these states, you'd also need, what, 200,000 people in each one voting twice? Securing their fake ids, coordinating the payoffs, getting everyone to the polls....and of course getting all 200,000 to keep mum.

It's just not an effective way to steal an election. Yes, I get that it will be the story of the deeply bitter, but in a year that people are fed up with partisan spin this fantasy isn't going to come together for anyone paying mild attention to the logistics.

Posted by Deborah | October 29, 2008 4:55 PM

Greg's point is the key. What were these rates in 2004 and other prior elections? If Hispanic turnout was 30% but white turnout was 60% in 2004, then having 20 and 25 now would be awesome.

I know the point of this feature is to present items that make it look like McCain has a fighting chance, and this does that, but more information is needed to evaluate how big of a deal this is.

Posted by Curtis | October 29, 2008 5:02 PM

The question isn't whether youth and Hispanic turnout is the same or higher than turnout generally - a much better question would be, how does 20% among Hispanics and 14% among people under 30 compare to the 2004 early-vote turnout? If, say, only 5% of people under 30 had early-voted by this time in 2004 then I'd say 14% this year is pretty significant.

Posted by Jennifer | October 29, 2008 5:24 PM

bigassbrando: In both cases they just hadn't gotten to vote early yet. My guess is they had jobs that kept them from making the 8am-6pm poll times for early voting. One was a young mother, the other was 38, had a couple of kids and was waiting to vote with his wife.

I really do think the media is missing how excited older (white) folks are about voting for Obama. One of the women I met in Hawthorne, probably 75, said her kids were probably going to vote for McCain, but "if they'd seen as many presidencies as I have, they would know how important it is to elect this man president."

Donna: Yeah, whatever.

Posted by Jason Pontius | October 29, 2008 5:30 PM

While canvassing in Reno, one thing I heard from many voters was a sense of excitement and reverence about voting on election day itself. They expressed a feeling that early voting somehow takes something sacred away from the voting process.

I'm not sure how much this is reflected in the numbers you posted, but I can imagine that it's a common sentiment for many voters, especially first-timers.

Posted by Joshua Dickens | October 29, 2008 7:55 PM

I spent an hour yesterday in line at the early voting station in the Student Union at the University of New Mexico, marveling at the persistent rumors that the youth vote won't turn out. The crowd was at least three fourths students, the mood was cheerful, and very few were turning away.

Posted by Gail | October 30, 2008 12:17 AM