DuHaime's Maine Gamble

A reader asks National Review's Rich Lowry whether John McCain's campaign is daft to devote resources to obtaining one of Maine's electoral votes.

Well -- assuming that there is evidence that McCain could actually win the EV for the second congressional district, NO.

Here's the scenario, and as of today, it's plausible:

Obama wins every state Kerry won and adds Iowa and New Mexico.  And then he wins Nevada, leaving the race tied at 269.

One EV matters.

But just as the McCain campaign is prowling for one EV from one half of the Maine-Nebraska axis, the Obama campaign is prowling for one EV from the other, pouring lots of resources into the EV that the winner of the state's second congressional district gets.