Senate Race Rankings: 57+ For Democrats

Every analyst does their own version of Senate race rankings. They're easy to do and they draw traffic. Mine are below. The polls close in Kentucky at 6:00 pm ET, so we'll have a pretty good idea pretty early if Democrats will hit 60 Senate seats. They've got 51 now. I predict they'll end up with at least 57.

LOCKS TO FLIP DEMOCRATIC (2)

Virginia -- Jay Timmons, the former Director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee and former Chief of Staff to Republican Virginia Governor/Senator George Allen, is sporting a Mark Warner for Senate sign in his front yard.

New Mexico -- Republicans have essentially conceded the race to Rep. Tom Udall; barely any money is being spent to save Pete Domenici's seat. Rep. Steve Pearce trails by high double digits.

LEANING FLIP DEMOCRATIC (5)

Alaska -- Tough times for the prosection in Ted Stevens' trial probably won't help Stevens hang on to his seat. Anchorage mayor Mark Begich (D) leads in most polls.

North Carolina -- An influx of Democratic money and trash talk from Washington Republicans are making it tougher for Elizabeth Dole to keep the seat. She's been a poor campaigner; Kay Hagan (D) has been surprisingly strong, and Obama's surge in the state is NOT hurting her.

Colorado -- Rep. Mark Udall (D) is up by five points in RCP's average, having shaken off Bob Schaffer's challenge on energy policy.

New Hampshire -- It's a testament to John Sununu's independent mind and stature that he's managed to keep at least mildly competitive. Jeanne Shaheen is leading, though. If anything saves Sununu's it'll be John McCain's field operation.  

Minnesota: Al Franken has finally broke free of the comedian's curse, as Norm Coleman's suits have somehow become the big campaign issue. If this race is tied, it leans D because the state leans D. 

TOSSUP (1)

Oregon: This is the closest race in the country right now.

LEAN GOP RETENTION (1)

Kentucky: Sen. Mitch McConnell doesn't campaign very well in tight races. He has a small RCP average lead now. If there's a national tsunami, Bruce Lunsford's performance will be the first squall line we'll feel on November 4.

Mississippi: Republican Roger Wicker has a very narrow lead. a lead that might dissipate if Republicans are demoralized on election day.

Georgia: Incumbent GOP Saxby Chambliss has a narrow lead, a lead that might dissipate if Republicans are demoralized on election day. Also.

Comments

So, let's see, that list includes one Republican who phone-jammed his way into office and one Republican who slimed his disabled veteran opponent.

My heart bleeds.

Posted by kevin McNamara | October 10, 2008 9:53 PM

Hmm, no hope for Rick Noriega? I especially would like to see John Cornyn out, if only so that a comprehensive alternative energy bill can get through the Senate without him screwing it up...

Posted by socctty | October 10, 2008 10:18 PM

The race in Alaska is way tighter than it should be. A measure is in the reader feedback in the only consequential paper in the state, the McLatchy Anchorage Daily News. Most readers are furious with Sarah, who is dropping precipitously in the polls, despite a recent $1,200 giveaway to every single resident, man, woman and child in Alaska! Palin's approval ratings have tanked by 20 points in just six weeks!

Alas, such is not the case with Ted Stevens. Even though he literally sitting in the dock in D.C. with his friends testifying against him, reader sentiment is still very mixed. He is dead even in the polls. If he gets acquitted, the LA OJ of AK, thanks to Mark Furman type prosecution, he will win. If he gets a mistrial, I expect a tossup. He's brought too much money to Alaska, most personally to his friends, and greed trumps ethics.

Posted by Frank | October 10, 2008 11:40 PM

Tom Allen is still in the running in Maine. He is slowly but surely closing the gap, now to maybe 9 or 10 points. Dems will field a more extensive GOTV effort, DSCC money going far in a cheap state, and undecideds will likely go heavily against the incumbent party. Mix in that polls because of the cell phone effect may be undersampling solid Democrats.

Collins in order to win must win most independants and a huge number of Obama votors in order to win. Also a huge number of people who have already voted for Allen many times in his huge House victories. These people might be saying to pollsters they are voting for her now, but their support is probably soft.

Do Maine voters really want to waste both of their Senate seats on quiet and ineffective outcasts in a weak minority party?

Also, a recent example of a Dem congressman running against a moderate GOP incumbent in a Dem year: Schumer was up about 3 points going in 1998, but ending up winning by 10.

Posted by Bob | October 11, 2008 6:13 AM

Notice, no one comments on this blog because no one reads it.

Posted by Joe Strummer | October 11, 2008 10:51 AM

For what it's worth, KY is in both central and eastern time zones. Therefore, voting will be open until 7ET... and the race should not be called prior to that time.

Posted by Gideon | October 11, 2008 3:06 PM

I read it. And so do you, obviously. Why do you log on just to be a tool to Marc?

Not sure what I think about the new "skin". Bolder isn't aways better.

Posted by Colleen | October 11, 2008 7:39 PM

Personally, I think that Ted Stevens is guilty - but the prosecution has not presented a case that demonstrates "guilty beyond a reasonable doubt" and there's a good chance that he'll be acquitted or that it will end with a mistrial or hung jury.

I think you're underestimating the backlash that's likely to ensue an acquittal - with Stevens talking about how the lower 48 are all against Alaska and that he was targeted b/c he was fightin' for Alaskans, etc. If acquitted, Stevens is likely to win. Even if there's a mistrial/hung jury, it's likely to be close. There's simply too much residual affection for "Uncle Ted."

Posted by Dan | October 12, 2008 1:50 PM