Focus Groups More Mixed; Reaction Polls Tilt To Obama

Obama seems to done well in the focus groups again, although McCain did better.. Question: are conservative-minded independents less likely to participate in MSM-sponsored focused groups? Or is Obama winning because he's winning?

The focus group folks brought up various answers about priorities and health care and the economy; not much about foreign policy, and none of them brought up "That One."  I'll bet the media will magnify the importance of the moment.

CBS's Dan Bartlett wondered why McCain would use the debate to unveil a brand new spending program? (The Obama campaign claims that, under the bailout/rescue plan, the government already has the authority to buy mortgages; they do -- McCain is saying he would exercise that right.)

The CBS/Knowledge Network poll: Who won? Obama: 39%, McCain 27%, Tie: 35%. Were minds changed? 70% still uncommitted. 15% committed to Obama; 14% to McCain. McCain  Obama had an advantage of 18 points on the economy.

CNN's poll: Who won? Obama, 54%, McCain 30%.

Mitt Romney on Fox News struggled to explain how McCain would pay for his new proposal...admitting that he didn't know, but said that it was important to note that McCain was doing something to alleviate pain.(Romney didn't seem very convinced.)

Why did McCain not work the crowd?

Comments

McCain had an advantage of 18 points on the economy.

Is that a Freudian slip? Don't you mean Obama?

Posted by Joe Klein's conscience | October 7, 2008 11:01 PM

McCain has become a socialist! He wants government to buy all the bad mortages!! WTF I am doing thinking of supporting a socialist like McCain.

Posted by Canvas | October 7, 2008 11:05 PM

I am not an undecided voter, but I knew soon as he said 'that one' it was a mistake.

Posted by roselin | October 7, 2008 11:05 PM

If anything, the focus groups should be tilting conservative if they're still trying to use undecided voters. As Obama builds up a larger lead, the undecideds have to be more and more predisposed to support a Republican.

Posted by Mark | October 7, 2008 11:06 PM

Obama wins CNN poll by 54 to 35.

McCain took the drubbing.

Posted by John | October 7, 2008 11:07 PM

>>
>> and none of them brought up "That One."
>>

Marc, you are WRONG.

The old lady from Ohio who has voted for Bush twice brought it up and she definitely did NOT like it. She said somthiing like 'it was rude, it was not good'.

Posted by John | October 7, 2008 11:09 PM

Why did McCain not work the crowd?

He had to hurry home, Matlock comes on at 11.

Posted by cd6 | October 7, 2008 11:11 PM

I thought this was a pretty good debate substantively, but all that will be remembered are both negatives for McCain - "that one", and the bizarre hair plugs comment.

Posted by Jayhawk Max | October 7, 2008 11:11 PM

This was an Obama knockout. His best performance in a debate this year. And not McCain at his best.

Healthcare as a right will resonate.

Posted by Steve | October 7, 2008 11:12 PM

You fail to note that the CBS poll is among undecided voters whereas the CNN poll is all voters.

Anyway, McCain is cooked. His half-baked mortgage plan isn't going to solve anything. I think it could make the problem worse. A lot of people will have an interest in claiming they can't pay their mortgage and that their house is overvalued if the government will pick up the difference. A lot of people will be dropping bad debt onto the rest of us who made sensible choices, and McCain is going to help them do it. I am convinced he will say anything to win the election, even if it is completely contrary to everything he believes. He knows his mortgage plan is a crock of BS, but if he didn't throw out some big bone that made it sound like he had a plan, he was cooked. I think he's roasting, nonetheless.

Posted by Julie | October 7, 2008 11:13 PM

As others have pointed out, your statement that McCain 'had an advantage of 18 points on the economy' in the CBS poll is erroneous.

In fact, Obama had the *19 pt* advantage, see...

http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/07/politics/horserace/entry4508356.shtml

Please correct this.

Posted by Elise | October 7, 2008 11:15 PM

On working the crowd: I watched the debate on the web, and the camera stayed trained on the stage for a good half-hour after the debate. It was intriguing. First McCain and Obama ventured into the audience to shake hands, then their wives. I noticed Cindy shake a few hands, but then she started trailing a few feet behind McCain, smiling and nodding, not making any physical contact with the voters. Then she disappeared. McCain left a few moments later, but for nearly thirty minutes both Barack and Michelle shook hands with the audience, posed for pictures, signed autographs and laughed. If they felt put upon by the extra effort it was not visible, they both seemed so at ease. Everyone in the audience was clamoring for face time. I think Barack shook hands with ever person in the auditorium. I wonder how many of those voters are still uncommitted?

Posted by SRP | October 7, 2008 11:15 PM

McCain came off as angry and creepy.

He has said so many terrible things about Obama on the campaign trail... that when in the same room with him... McCain cowers under the weight of his guilt.

But rather than deal with it, he projects his own shame angrily on Obama.

It reminds me of something from a Nathaniel Hawthorne story.

His "That One!" comment said it all. What a creep. And I used to think McCain was great.

Posted by blip | October 7, 2008 11:18 PM

Good catch Marc.

McCain did a quick walk around in front of the audience and left in less than 15 min. The networks cut away from debate set while the Obamas and Brokaw were still working the crowd. You'd think someone would note it. Maybe Brokaw will bring it up. Obama might have picked up some votes after the debate.

Posted by JohnR | October 7, 2008 11:20 PM

I saw the undecided focus group on CBS and the first 2 people who spoke both mentioned "the one" and said it was disrespectful and childish. They did not like it at all.

Posted by halle | October 7, 2008 11:28 PM

Whoever started the meme that John McCain was great in townhalls is obviously in the tank for Obama. Expectations were raised once again for McCain and he couldn't quite clear the bar.

Posted by Under the bus | October 7, 2008 11:37 PM

Obama looked ready to carry the weight that is now set out for the next President. McCain looked too old to do much else than talk about his past. On the CNN "dial," the reading dipped a bit whenever McCain criticized Obama, or whenever McCain dwelled on what a great guy he once was. McCain seemed at once more pompous and less presidential.

Posted by Iris | October 7, 2008 11:50 PM

Apropos of sticking around after ... Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann both have made mention of the Obamas remaining longer to "schmooz" with the crowd. They say it was shown on CSPAN for a considerable time.

Posted by Eric in Ohio | October 7, 2008 11:54 PM

Obama supporter here. I thought Obama was a bit stronger during the debate until health care.
Obama seemed to take over the control and pace of the debate and McCain just seemed to fade the rest of the debate.

Posted by vwcat | October 8, 2008 12:15 AM

courtesy of huffpost

At a Sept. 23 press conference, Obama said: "For example, we should consider giving the government the authority to purchase mortgages directly instead of simply purchasing mortgage- backed securities. In the past, such an approach has allowed taxpayers to profit as the housing market recovered. This is not simply a question of looking out for homeowners; it's doubtful that the economy as a whole can recover without the restoration of our housing sector, including a rebound in the home values that have suffered dramatically in recent months."

And in an Oct. 1 statement, Obama repeated the idea. "We also must do more than this rescue package does to help homeowners stay in their homes. I will continue to advocate bankruptcy reforms to help families stay in their homes and encourage Treasury to study the option of buying individual mortgages like we did successfully in the 1930s," he said.

Posted by sgwhiteinfla | October 8, 2008 12:39 AM

I will not be voting socialist this election! I will be voting Obama/ Biden.

It's funny how I read a million comments about how Obama was a socialist. And then McCain comes out with a HUGE socialist idea that he can't possibly pay for? What must conservatives be thinking now.

BTW the look on McCain's face when Obama sang Bomb bomb Iran was BEYOND PRICELESS. The best political moment I have ever seen.

Posted by Mark | October 8, 2008 3:21 AM

My favorite moment was McCain's indicating he'd like the insurance that covers hair transplants. I think we now know a line of work he can get into after the election--working for the hair club for men as their new pitch man, sort of like Dole pitching viagra after his defeat. Sort of ironic in that the electoral count is starting to look sort of like '96 ended up. The only thing that can change the outcome is if too many Dems think it's in the bag and don't bother to vote, which unfortunately is still a possibility.

Posted by stan | October 8, 2008 3:35 AM

Do Seniors’ Deserve This?

While the cost of living has quadrupled, the group of people most negatively affected group in the society is the seniors, who are on fixed income. And some of us who had managed to invest in stocks and lived on interest incomes during the boom years in the mid to late 1980s have just witnessed the major evaporation of savings we made over our life time disappear in a span of weeks. We not only lost the interest income but the principle amounts as well. Surprisingly, it does not appear that this down slope of our standard of living would soon improve. On Sunday, I could not believe listening to statements by Douglas Holtz-Eakin, Sen. McCain's senior policy adviser that if elected, Senator McCain intends to reduce medicare and medicaid spending to offset tax cuts to pay for his proposed health plan. He further elaborated by saying that the savings would come from eliminating or reforming payment policies to lower the overall cost of medicare and medicaid. In addition, he will increase medicare premiums for the wealthier seniors. The more I think about it I get very distressed that the ills of this generation are being pushed to its seniors and our grand kids. It is not fair and McCain avoided elaborating the subject during the debate when questioned. It feels like he is not one of us!

Posted by jane | October 8, 2008 5:45 AM

Celeste Fremon at WitnessLA blog caught this meltdown at FOX:

In a very odd moment I happened to catch at FOX News, conservative polster Frank Luntz, who had gathered together a focus group to watch the debate, asked for a show of hands as to who won the thing. Unfortunately for Luntz, the majority said Obama had won. This didn’t work for Luntz. Nor did it work for FOX anchor, Brit Hume, who began looking a bit sickly.

Luntz decided he could save what was turning into an icky situation. (After all, he’s Frank Luntz always the smartest guy in the room, just ask him.) So he eyed one guy whom he’d determined was a McCain supporter and said, “But people said that McCain was better on the economy, why did you think so?” (Or words to that effect.) The McCain guy immediately catches the tossed ball. “Oh yes,” he says and proceeded to expound as to why.

So, says a slightly cheered Hume, the majority thought that Senator McCain did better on the economy?

Yes, beams Luntz. But then he made a fatal mistake. He turned to his focus group members and asked them how many thought McCain did the best on the economy.

Around six out of the 25 panel members raised their hands. At that juncture, Luntz was not foolish enough to ask how many think that Obama did better on the economy. Instead, he simply lied. “Okay, that’s about half who thought McCain did better,” says Luntz, lying like a rug, as the camera quickly cuts away.

http://witnessla.com/

Posted by brucds | October 8, 2008 5:59 AM

I turned to my husband and asked, "did he really just call Obama 'that one'?" Seemed totally inappropriate and disrespectful.

Posted by LWE | October 8, 2008 7:47 AM

One thing that stuck me -- perhaps because of the dial groups during the Biden/Palen debate -- but McCain did not use the word "maverick" last nigh.

I'm wondering if all this focus-group stuff is getting inside McCain's head. He's much happier with the raw stuff he gets at his own rallies, with his own base. That seems real and rewarding to him. Instead, last night I thought I saw him reach to shake a couple of audience-members' hands, and they turned their backs to him; a reversal like the dial-group rejection of "maverick." He's discovering what sells on Main Street, Anywhere Else USA doesn't necessarily sell on Main St., Wasilla.

Posted by zic | October 8, 2008 8:44 AM

McCain didn't work the crowd because something - a health something - appeared to happen to him during the debate. During an early question, he started strong and coherent then lapsed into incoherence, as if the form of his thought had collapsed, while blinking uncontrollably.

I'm an Obama supporter, but I was kind of impressed that he managed to finish afterward. It was like watching a fighter you think may have broken his hand.

Posted by Dirk | October 8, 2008 8:45 AM

I noticed the difference in schmoozing after the debate, too. Like Dirk, I wonder if there is some health-related matter that necessitates Sen. McCain excusing himself quickly. Ninety minutes of intense questioning / thinking / responding is strenuous and demanding. Try it yourself sometime if you don't believe me.

I've observed before that Mrs. McCain will step back from the Senator, still in his peripheral vision, after a time. Is that some sort of signal from Mrs. McCain to her husband that it is time to wind things up? If so, well, that's probably being a good wife. Lots of couples have similar kinds of signals. Still, it raises questions in my mind about Sen. McCain's overall health and stamina. I've long supported Sen. Obama, by the way, but would have voted for Sen. McCain in 2000 if he had been the Republican nominee.

Posted by jpeckjr | October 8, 2008 12:37 PM

and none of them brought up "That One." I'll bet the media will magnify the importance of the moment.

This morning, on NPR's coverage about the debate, I didn't even hear "That One" mentioned by any of the announcers or interview subjects.

Posted by Just Dropping By | October 8, 2008 2:15 PM