Gallup's Two Likely Voter Models: Obama + 4, + 7

Gallup's back with their two-model likely voter estimates. This poll includes data from late last week -- 10-12 to 10-12.

Model 1 includes the standard battery of questions to determine past voting history and those who currently intend to vote. The model assumes turnout to be about 60% of eligible voters.

Model II is designed to pick up the variability in turnout and the millions of new voters who might cast a ballot. It simply filters respondents to those who intend to vote -- regardless of whether they've voted in the past. This sample is about 200 persons larger than Model 1.

For fun, Gallup's also included the findings from a larger sample of registered voters.

The top-line findings are interesting: Obama leads McCain by 4 (50-46) among regular model 1 likely voters, by 7 among model 2 likely voters (52-45) and by 7 among registered voters.  (In September, when John McCain lead the Gallup poll, his margin of victory among model 1 likely voters was greater than his margin among model 2 likely voters.)  These Obama margins are within the margin of error, but just barely.

The poll also finds that enthusiasm among Republicans has dropped nine points since September, that approximately 25% plan to have voted before election day (which is comparable to 2004 figures), and that Americans give Democrats a six point advantage on a leaned congressional balllot.