More Evidence Of A Surge Among Low-Propensity Voters In Colorado

The art and science of microtargeting is so very precise that these days that campaigns can very easily assign each voter to one of any number of categories and rank them according to how likely they are to vote.

A Republican insider passes along more early vote data from Colorado that breaks voters down according to there are three categories: low propensity voters -- i.e., sporadic voters... middle propensity voters... and high propensity voters.  Within the categories, there are three subcategories:  likely McCain voters, likely Obama voters, and likely swing voters. 

It's easy to bank high-propensity voters, and McCain is doing better than Obama -- about 29,000 voters better.

It's more difficult to bank middle propensity voters -- and here Obama has a 26,000 vote lead.

And it's very difficult to bank low propensity voters -- and here again, Obama has a 20,000 vote lead.

As of Wednesday, Democrats had a 1.7% percent -- slim, yes, but again, certain voters are harder to turn out than others, and Obama's margin can be attributed, if the Republican data is correct, to a surge of low-propensity Democratic voters.