The Obama campaign's top two field generals have
decamped to Florida, a sign of its confidence that the
state, with 27 electoral votes, is tilting toward the Democratic candidate.
Steve Hildebrand, the deputy campaign manager, will oversee operations
from Miami, and Paul Tewes, the chief general election strategist, will help
supervise the get-out-the-vote program from the campaign's state
headquarters in Tampa.
Tewes, the Obama campaign's liaison with the Democratic National Committee, arrived today, a colleague said. Both will work with Obama state director Steve Schale, who has put together the biggest field team ever field by a party, Republican or Democratic. There are more than 60 open field offices and more than 100,000 active volunteers. In addition, the Obama campaign is outspending McCain on television in the expensive state by a factor of five to one, records show.
With an aircard, both Hildebrand and Tewes can do their jobs from anywhere, and they will continue to oversee the national operation. Their physical presence serves as a force multiplier effect, letting volunteers and canvassers know that the campaign considers their work vital.
Other senior staff members will be dispatched to other battleground states soon.
Analysis: Not A Defensive Move
Republicans will be tempted to consider the arrivals of Hildebrand and Tewes as a defensive move, but it is not -- clearly -- since George W. Bush won the state handily in 2004. Republicans scoff at reports that the Democratic turnout machine is as big as advertised -- supposedly more than 300 paid staffers supervise the efforts of the volunteers, but others concede that, in terms of sheer numbers, Obama is outworking McCain.
In some ways, Florida holds mythic attraction for some
Obama staffers. Democratic activists everywhere still bear the wounds
from the 2000 recount. Florida's population grew faster than any other
large state and then the rate slowed dramatically as the economy
halted. The state is now in a recession -- its first in more than a
decade. Demographically, Florida is like five states in one, and it's
growing more diverse. 12,000,000 residents are now registered to vote,
up about one million from last cycle. Younger Hispanics in South
Florida are casting their ballots for Democrats; young professionals
along the I-4 corridor, while sharing conservative sensibilities, are
hurting from the economic downturn and blame the President. The era of
cheap land and cheap development is over; the crush of national
resource competition is on, and not just around the Everglades. Jeb
Bush, whose allure exceeded his party, is retired. Republicans are
demoralized.
« Live Twittering | Main | "The New Organizers" -- A Fascinating Take On Obama's Field Operation » Obama's Top Field Generals Dispatched To Florida08 Oct 2008 04:46 pm Comments (46)
One question I have is why the Obama campaign is so clearly signalling their intention to compete hard in Florida? First there was the Plouffe video explictly mentioning the amount of money they were putting into Florida. Now they're putting in their top two field guys. Assuming national polls come back to closer to even (otherwise none of this will matter), is Florida really where the Obama campaign wants to make their stand? It seems like a very Clintonian idea. I say go where-they-ain't - i.e. Virginia or Colorado. 
McCain's slip today, 10/08/2008, in referring to his audience as "MY FELLOW PRISONERS," is another sign of his Presenile Dementia or Parkinson's disease, (so is his darting tongue and awkward walk). He is seriously and dangerously ill. He must not be elected. He will make extremely poor decisions coming from a brain damaged mind, and then Palin would be President before the end of his first term. Trust me on this. I am very familiar with these syndromes, and have worked with veterans who suffer this quite frequently. The press will not comment on it, for fear of getting too personal, but they did the same thing for Reagan's symptoms of Alzheimer's, which he displayed as early as in the debates in his re-election campaign in '84.
I think Obama is playing 2 types of strategies.
THe problem is that he IS in virginia, colorado, nevada, New MExico, PA, Oh, And Florida! He has the cash to go to each state and keep gaining votes, so those that think they should go where we arent, well then go to alaska...oh by the way, can you take Palin with you?
I say go where-they-ain't - i.e. Virginia or Colorado. I agree, Greg. With Obama looking so solid in the most vulnerable Kerry states (MN/WI/MI/PA), along with IA and NM he only needs one out of CO/VA/IN/NC to get to 270. OH and FL of course would do the trick, but I'd imagine they'd get more bang for their buck in one of the smaller, less expensive states. Bottom line, if the polls dramatically tighten for McCain in the next 27 days (which is the only scenario where this state-by-state strategy even matters), it will likely come down to CO rather than FL.
That said, TJ is right: It's not like moving Hildebrand and Tewes to FL means that the Obama campaign isn't going all out in these other states.
@Greg: Where who ain't? There's lots of presence in VA and CO. Hell, if it looks really good in a few weeks see if you can sneak Obama into Alaska for a day. In the spring I would not have bet on Florida for Dems. Would be a nice sign of the shifting map Obama can create, but VA and the western states even more so. I think Obama will win. Whether landslide or squeaker, a lot can happen in the next few weeks. Don't get complacent and assume your votes and door-to-door won't make a difference! In fact, that's what happened last election in FL: the Dems won the polls, the Reps won get out the vote, guess who actually gets elected then?
Stationing their top field guys and gals in the key states serves two purposes: 1) Elevates the stature of a state within the campaign causing it to become electrified from within, at the grass roots through the organizer corp; all the while compelling the opponent to sink more scarce resources into the most expensive, and expendible, battlefield on the map. 2) Gives these field generals an opportunity to observe close up the actions and effects of their field strategy, in their highest price tag state, to make immediate, on the fly, nation wide changes where possible. Literally, by observing a few organiziers and volunteers in one day, the campaign can learn a few new tricks gained via experience and have it immediately instilled among the hundreds of thousands of volunteers nation wide. no one has ever done this before. It makes sense for the farmers to check on the barn every now and again... (in sarah palin english)
Florida is expensive, and that's precisely why the Obama campaign wants to compete there. The more they can pull McCain into Florida, the more the campaign saps his much more limited organization and funding. And this strategy does seem to be succeeding. In contrast, I haven't a clue why McCain went to Iowa. Waste of time for him.
it will likely come down to CO rather than FL. On my 15 minute bus ride home yesterday from downtown Denver to almost the southern edge of the city limits going down a very busy local street (passing through neighborhoods ranging from up-and-coming-yuppie to stinkin' rich), I counted 17 Obama houses and 2 or 3 McCain houses (I couldn't tell if the two signs were in front of a single mansion or two adjacent mansions). This also excludes houses with only Udall signs. This is not a particularly liberal or young part of Denver. I bet Obama wins the state by at least five points, maybe 10.
Considering that the past two elections in FL probably weren't clean (Jeb, Katherine Harris, Diebold, etc.), I think having the generals there to keep an eye on things sounds like a great idea, for the campaign & the democracy in general. If I were voting in FL, it would certainly make me feel better.
A smart stategy. If the Bradley Effect knocks him out in Appalachia (PA, OH, VA) he can still win (270) if he takes FL, IA and the Kerry states other than PA.
I forgot to add NM.
Because Obama has the resources, he can play a huge map. It is maybe not the 50-state strategy just yet, but it is much closer. Florida strikes me as insurance against Michigan and Pennsylvania. If McCain gets some traction in the midwest, then there is a reply. And if McCain is forced to throw precious time and money at protecting Florida, his chances of an upset in the midwest diminish greatly. Obama spent all summer working the body, to borrow a boxing analogy, and in a few weeks, we will see the benefits. I don't think 375 is out of reach.
Oracle: if the polls dramatically tighten for McCain in the next 27 days (which is the only scenario where this state-by-state strategy even matters)But that's not true. "Elections have consequences," even if they're in Indiana/Nevada/Ohio/Florida/North Carolina/Georgia in a cycle in which the electoral vote race has already been decided elsewhere. An Obama Administration swept into office in a 375-electoral-vote blowout would be a different animal next year than an Obama Administration that tiptoes in with 273. It's much easier to get a legislative agenda (and judicial appointments) through Congress when you've got a national landslide backing you up. How many GOP Senators will there be after this election? Forty? Forty-two? How would you like to be the swing Republican Senator publicly challenged by a 375-EV President Obama to support cloture on a major bill? If the Senate Republicans continue to try to stymie the Democratic agenda with filibusters, I wonder if that "nuclear option" they themselves concocted a few years ago would be in order, especially in the aftermath of a national landslide....
I have to think that there are also huge psychological advantages to making a big play for Florida, given it's where the Republicans stole the election from Gore in 2000. The recent polls show Obama leading there and taking that state out of the Republican column would be a tremendous feel-good victory for Democrats. Plus, it puts McCain even more on the defensive, while he's already having to defend his flank in some unusual territory: Virginia, Colorado, North Carolina, Ohio. It can't make the old man, or his stressed-to-the-max campaign crew very happy. All in all, a smart move.
Obama's 50 state strategy is meant to suck McCain's cash away from key swing states like OH. It also supports the Dem's senate and house candidates. But now with OH, VA, NC, FL, CO, NM, NV and even MO breaking for Obama, McCain is running around like the erratic fool he is to save once solid red states. Even safe Pub seats in Congress are ready to fall for a huge Dem sweep in Nov. Just like Hilary was outsmarted in the primaries, Mac is being schooled in "how to run a real campaign".
I agree with wrylass. It is imperative that votes in Florida, especially Palm Beach County, are counted accurately. I hope Tewes, Hildebrand, and every other Democratic campaign manager will be watching closely!
I'm an Obama volunteer in the Orlando segment of the I-4 corridor, and I can say this; we are psyched. I'm getting tremendous personal satisfaction from traipsing around for hours, knocking on strange doors and watching them open to the faces of like thinking people. I think the Generals will be pretty happy with these troops.
Cool. It looks like I shall again make another donation to the Obama campaign to bolster this bold move. I am also hoping for a landslide but agree that no Obama supporter should be complacent. Get out the vote. Document via camera/video ANY and all voter intimidation. There can be no chance of a stolen election if the turnout is like an immense Obama tidal wave.
TJ: Until Palin was chosen as the VP candidate, Alaska was a potential swing state and Obama had paid field staff on the ground in Anchorage, Fairbanks and Juneau. And as an Alaska resident, we don't want Palin back either!
Florida is McCain's last firewall. It is like Lee at Petersburg in the Civil War. Break thru there at the most important defensive spot and draw precious resources away from the other states and you open up a blow out that will take all the tied states and bring some others like GA, WV and SC into play. The McCain campaign is so inept that the more pressure we exert on them the better chance they will make mistakes with their limited resources. The sooner the map goes over 270 EV the RNC is going to have to decide how much money they allocate to McCain's sinking ship and how much they try and use for House and Senate seats. Also the sooner the map goes over 270 the more the MSM will jump on that narrative that its over and demoralize the field staff and volunteers and the lukewarm McCain support will melt away making lots of states gettable as we drive turnout up. Remember we have a debate in 8 days and Palin's Troopergate scandal report out on Friday and she is in deep trouble on that. If after next Wed. nite Barack wins again - which he should - the map is over 270 and Palin is in trouble the base will be demoralized and the middle will be looking to jump to a winner or stay home. There will still be 2.5 weeks to drive results in places like GA and SC and others to run up the score and get close to or over 400 EV and get 61 Dem. Senators and more in the House.
As a Michigander, my big concern is our state legislature. As long as resources are available and not needed elsewhere, GOTV efforts in districts where it might elect more democrats to the state legislature are very worthwhile. I assume that the same is true for other states. As Obama's poll numbers continue to improve, it make sense to start distributing resources based on the down ticket races. The same is true for the other guys. Since it seems pretty clear that the top of their ticket is hopeless, they should forget about electing them, and start working to elect their down ticket races. Fortunately, that shift in strategy would require leadership, and they seem to be lacking that.
The choice of Palin has given Obama a huge opening in Florida, which would have been competitive anyway. She is an alien creature to many of the swing voters there, and her false folksiness and inability to give lucid responses to questions are major turn-offs for a lot of Florida's northern migrants. The thought that she would be that close to the presidency under McCain is pushing people away.
I live in Florida, and I work in a library where we handle voter registration forms. This past Monday was the deadline to register for the general election Nov. 4th, and we had, Swear to God, 40 people or close to it come in and register. In all the other election years I've lived in this state and worked at libraries, I've never seen a turnout like that. Another thing to mention is the sizable anger I've been hearing from our patrons coming in and how it's directed at the Republicans. And these are low-income and middle-class whites, and retirees, people admitting they were once Republican voters but now signing up for Obama. I've yet to hear ONE person where I work openly support McCain. I am witnessing evidence here on the ground in a traditionally GOP county that Obama can win here, can win Florida.
A little off topic but I think it is interesting that McCain is only ahead by 11 pts in his home state. He's only leaps and bounds ahead in the southern states and a few out west.Arizonians are sold on their hometown boy.
There is more to this than what everyone realizes. Obama only needs to win even the smallest state N.H., which pollers are close to calling, that alone will clear 270. The ultimate here is for not only a win but for democratic control of Florida house and Senate seats in the future.
If they pass around the WSJ article on McCain's plans to cut Medicare and Medicaid benefits by 1.3 trillion dollars over 10 years to fund his health care plan he will certainly lose Florida.
This is a perfect thing to do in battle. Get your commanders near the front so they can adjust on the fly. Also FL is near GA,SC and MS all of which would flip with a little help if this moves right and having the decision makers "in theater" could help there in tactical adjustments, financial decisions, surrogate and candidate visits etc. Exerting all the pressure possible in the one state where a loss is fatal makes perfect sense and will flip other states due to lack of resources.
Between cuting medicaid and insulting all hispanic people by lumping all leaders with a spanish name into the communist/enemy column, i.e., Zapatero of Spain, I'm surprised Obama has to do anything in Florida, other than calm people down long enough to concentrate on pulling down that Obama lever.
Sorry Marc, but is it really worth mentioning that they have aircards?
I just feel in my heart that Obama will win Florida. I hear so many people in Florida who say they will vote for Obama. And alot of these people are Republicans for Obama.
To Greg and Oracle: You both raise valid points from an electoral perspective, but I hafta agree with Ambinder here- How many GOP Senators will there be after this election? Forty? Forty-two? How would you like to be the swing Republican Senator publicly challenged by a 375-EV President Obama to support cloture on a major bill?"
Keep the pressure up guys, don't let up! I fear McCain will have one last trick up his sleeve to try and change the tide before this is all said and done. Florida is huge and an automatic win, but we can't feel like it's already over. If Florida goes blue Nov 4th I'll prolly cry haha! Go Floridians!
Florida is the Death Star, to use a Star Wars analogy. Knock it out and it's game over for Palpatine.
on the ground in Pasco County Florida it's exhilarating the number of supporters we have here. people, even republicans, make a point of telling me how much they hate Palin.
@jason: I don´t think McCain has any trick left. They´ve already pulled the Ayres-card, which I´ve expected to happen two weeks before the election, where it would have had its greatest impact. But they are so desperate, that they´ve played that card amidst the debate-season, leaving the Obama-staff enough time to react and the voters enough time to forget. McCain is in disarray, you can tell, if you notice that he is giving interviews Fox´s Hannity. Is that a strategy to reach independent voters? Ridiculous. We will probably witness some decline for Obama in the polls in the days to come, but he should be resurgent right in time for the election.
Remember there are 57 states contending in this election. Alaska and Hawaii too. McCain will win the other states with the help of BCORN. I wish Sarah Palin was running for President.
The only American Generals to have any real contact with Obama will be the one's who will be in command of the teams who are sent to hunt him down when this all comes to the head that Obama desperately dreads. His function of running for The Office of The President is meant to get him in the door of The White House and then proceed to do his work at killing all of the neighbors across all of the land. When he fails his mission he will be the most wanted fugitive on this planet. And, unlike his counterpart, he will have no cave in which he can hide.
Robert, That is such a magnificently deranged post. It takes real skill to produce a post which is correct grammatically, and spelt correctly, and seems to make sense on first glance, but is actually completely insane. Brilliant. More please.
I live in south Florida and I'm an ardent supporter of Obama. I decided to go to that McPalin rally in Clearwater so I could see for myself the rhetoric that they spew on a regular basis. I was appalled & disgusted by the comments I heard from supposedly "civilized" human beings. I heard little old ladies talking about it being a shame lynchings were illegal..I heard him called a Muslim terrorist..and a LOT worse! I for one am thrilled he's sending his "generals" here and I hope they do all they can to ensure a fair election.
I lived in the Panhandle of Florida and have volunteer for Obama. The tide here is changing. Our neighbor are mostly for McCain, but Palin choice has turned off moderates. I know that in Florida, many northern moderates are annoy by her negative remarks regarding personal issues about Obama,and her religion views as part of her agenda. 27 electoral votes would make Obama's campaign thrilled. It would also make McCain have to sweept other swinger states. I believe that the latest attacks on Obama from Palin and McCain is a sign of desperation, and targered at our undecided, misinformed or uninformed that more likely decide this election. We are just thrilled to have Florida Democratic once again.
PLEASE FLORIDA VOTERS WAKE UP AND REALIZE WE CAN NOT STAND FOR McCAIN/PALIN TO BE RUNNING THIS AMERICA THAT I LOVE
Will ever come a day the world becomes one country?
Obama needs to hold on to all the states Kerry won and win Ohio. He might need Missouri, too. If I were Obama, I'd plant my flag in Ohio and walk that entire state. I'd focus on others, too for insurance. Obama is able to afford that luxury. Use it!
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Obama will win with at least 375 electoral votes. He may even win Georgia if they are able to increase blacks to 30% of voters (from 25% in 2004). He's getting 28% of the white vote (per rasmussen) in Georgia (kerry got 23%). Early voting indicates 40% blacks.
I think it's called landslide.
But McCain should keep focusing on PA, WI, MN and IA.
Posted by Rebecca | October 8, 2008 5:26 PM