« $47.5b For The National Intelligence Program | Main | Two Views On Pro-Obama Bias In The Media » Pew: Obama By 16...By 19 Among Those Who Have Already Voted28 Oct 2008 10:32 am
Pew's Andy Kohut conducts one of the better national surveys out there, and his results today -- even assuming that he caught McCain in a downdraft -- are fairly stunning. Obama leads by 16 points among likely voters, by 17 points among independents, by 13 points among men, by 20 points among women, is tied among whites, and is up eight among white Catholics. Of the 15 percent of the sample who've already voted, Obama leads by 19 points (although this subsample has a fairly large MoE). 74% of Obama's backers say they support him "strongly," which is 20 points higher than the percentage who say the same about their support for McCain.
Who are the undecideds? Undecided voters are less educated, less affluent, and somewhat more likely to be female than the average voter. Nearly half of undecided voters (48%) say they attend religious services at least weekly, which is same as the proportion of McCain supporters. Fewer Obama supporters (31%) say theyattend religious services at least once a week.  Comments (19)
The most telling number is BO's lead in the "battleground states". If this number is anywhere near accurate, he could break 400 EVs. 
I'm not a math or stats guy (nor did I stay at a Holiday Inn last night) but how does Obama's -4% among Democrats and -3% among Independents still have holding him steady at 52%? I see McCain's decline reflected in the internals, but Obama's numbers don't make any sense. It's going to be real interesting next week to see which pollster got the turnout model right...either Pew or IDB is going to be lunching on crow for a long time.
Marc, why is it that the 1 week Obama change column shows much more -ves than +ves? Is it a matter of concern or is it just an overall fatigue factor among voters??
"Undecided voters are less educated, less affluent, and somewhat more likely to be female than the average voter. Nearly half of undecided voters (48%) say they attend religious services at least weekly, which is same as the proportion of McCain supporters." It sounds like those undecideds are in McCain's wheelhouse. Perhaps they are undecided because they don't want to admit that they aren't voting for BHO. Although I think Obama will win handily I won't be surprised if undecideds break for McCain.
If we assume that is true and give the undecideds to McCain, does Obama still come on top?? Gee, I dunno. Can he beat Obama's 52 percent? Democrats have gotten to be like people who grew up during the Depression (the first one, anyway): no matter how large the lead, no matter whether it's an actual majority, we're frantic that it's going to disappear any second now. Please take a chill pill, because it's genuinely unattractive--talking like a loser is the surest way to make people think we are losers. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Additionally, Salon's "article" was a hit piece by a GOP operative. We're not going to learn a thing about Obama's general election chances by looking at the lopsided win of Deval Patrick or the crushing defeat of Michael Steele.
If Obama's up by 16, does it really matter who the undecided people are anymore?
Additionally, Salon's "article" was a hit piece by a GOP operative. We're not going to learn a thing about Obama's general election chances by looking at the lopsided win of Deval Patrick or the crushing defeat of Michael Steele. That said, though, I think it's probably right that undecided voters are going to break overwhelmingly for McCain. If my personal experience is any guide, they generally are Republican-leaning voters who either don't like saying that they are going to vote Republican this year, or they are Republican-leaning voters who don't like John McCain. Most of those people are going to go in the voting booth and pull the lever for McCain. BUT (and it's a big but), not all of them are. Some (especially younger) will vote for Obama. Some will stay home. And, of course, Obama is polling over 50%, and you can hope that his ground game helps him pick up an extra point or two. So, when I look at polls like this with a huge number of undecideds, I tend to allocate them 70% to McCain, 20% to Obama (probably high, but I'm shoving the ground game pickups into here), and 10% dropping off the poll. So, with respect to the Pew number, that gives you a 55-45 Obama win.
It is simply not plausible that the Republican ticket, no matter how bad off, is at 36% in the real world. Nader's 3% result is also implausible, given that he nabbed less than half of one percent in 2004. What I think is happening here is that Pew is letting respondents get away with stating no preference or undecided, whereas most other pollsters are pushing people a bit harder to name a preference. Thus, thanks to warmer support, Obama's 52% is in line with most other polls, while thanks to the cooler support for McCain, he appears to be even weaker than he actually is. That said, the cool reaction to McCain does not bode well for his GOTV operation, at least amongst those who aren't in love with Palin.
either Pew or IDB is going to be lunching on crow for a long time. My guess is Obama's real lead is around 7. So, in other words, they both will be eating crow.
Among voters with IQs under 90, McCain leads 82%-1%, with the rest undecided.
By the way, Joe and Mike H are both right, in a way. Their arguments are two sides of the same coin. The majority of undecideds are likely GOP presidential voters (either Bush Republicans or Reagan Democrats) but either can't admit or won't commit to voting McCain at this point. Even though a lot of them will eventually come home to McCain, some won't, and some will stay home. Still leads to a comfortable Obama win on Nov. 4.
What a joke. I can't wait to see how wrong you hacks in the press are after the election.
Really Ritchie? Do you have any interest in putting your money where your mouth is? What's that? Cat got your tongue?
I think that no matter what the polls are saying this is going to go down to the wire. Here are two articles that shed some doubt in my mind that all will go as predicted: http://hillbuzz.wordpress.com/2008/10/28/breaking-heres-what-we-know-about-pennsylvania-right-now/
Until the actual votes are counted, the polls are just an abstraction - as Chris Berman always says: "That's why they play the games" I'll be highly anxious until McCain concedes!
Richie if you're so confident, go put your money on it at intrade.com... you stand to make a boatload if McCain wins.
So how do you reconcile the Pew poll with today's Gallup poll, which shows Obama with only a 2 point lead? (Using its "traditional" model; the other model assumes more newly registered voters and shows a 7 point lead.) One of these is an "outlier" -- which one?
Gallup's "traditional" model assumes 2004 turnout, which anyone knows is flat wrong. I'm not sure the Pew poll is more accurate either, although they are a superior pollster. I'd go with the Rasmussen-R2000 spread which has been stable at around O+5 and O+9 or so nationally. I think a 5-9 point lead sounds about right.
Personally I would love to believe the Pew numbers, but they seem so outlandishly off. I live in Northern Virginia and it is quite evident that there is a lot of energy and passion behind the McCain-Palin ticket. Gallup strikes me as far more accurate. However, in one week, we will not have to guess any more.
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Holy ****.
Posted by Bill | October 28, 2008 10:39 AM