Provocation of The Day: Too Many Dems

There are TOO many new Democrats for Barack Obama to lose in Pennsylvania.

Back-up:  "Democratic registration has surged by 13 percent and Republican ranks have shrunk by 1 percent as a record 8.6 million people registered to vote in battleground Pennsylvania in the 2008 presidential election."

Discuss.

 

Comments

I'm singing.

It's all over except for McCain showing how much further he can disgrace himself.

Posted by The Fat Lady | October 7, 2008 6:57 PM

wouldn't John McCain's time, money and resources be better spent going after MI? Or re-doubling it's efforts in OH & FL? Even WI or MN look like better pick-up opportunities. Among the myriad of failures at McCain-HQ one of the biggest has to be a misallocation of resources. I don't know who they thought they were running against... John Kerry or something.

Posted by JS | October 7, 2008 6:58 PM

The quote makes it sound like 8.6 million people registered recently to vote in PA. Which of course is absurd.

Posted by Naveen | October 7, 2008 7:00 PM

I read all of these things hopefully, then I begin to wonder: Can the Iowa model really be replicated successfully on a national level?

We'll see in 28 days.

Posted by Rhoda | October 7, 2008 7:01 PM

Of the big three swing states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio) in the region, Michigan was probably the best one for McCain to reach for. I believe it was the best one on Nate Silver's ROI index. Naturally, the McCain campaign has internal polling, but there must have been something really alarming for him to "pull out" from there.

Posted by Joel | October 7, 2008 7:04 PM

True. And it will be a problem McCain experiences in more than one state.

Posted by Chris O. | October 7, 2008 7:06 PM

Which makes it all the more laughable that the first stop after the debate for McCain is PA. I think spending a little more time with editorial boards in Iowa might be a better use of his time.

Posted by Greg | October 7, 2008 7:13 PM

True.

Witness; Palin has spent two days in Florida hitting four media markets. If they had any shred of hope at winning Pennsylvania they would put her there. McCain is reduced to clinging for dear life, holding the Bush states minus Iowa and New Mexico. That is his only path to victory.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | October 7, 2008 7:32 PM

Marc, why waste any breath on this. Obama is not +12.5 in PA and running away. This will be McCain's next retreat just like Lee from Gettysburg except his surrender will be in 28 days and Lee's took 21 months.

Posted by John Nail | October 7, 2008 7:43 PM

Methinks McCain will pull out of PA - perhaps not as violently or as noticeably as Michigan - in the next week or so. The dynamic in NEPA has changed dramatically since the Palin nomination: I hear a lot more of "I can't believe what's happening," when referring to the economy and the Palin selection. Sure people like her in the area, but exogenous factors are driving people to Obama.

Posted by AG | October 7, 2008 8:21 PM

I can't believe that even PA is looking good.

But tell me, IF McCain pulls out of even there, what is his route to victory? What conceivable way can he win?

I don't want to get my hopes up, but I keep telling everyone that the Obama campaigns STRENGTH is get out the vote, not all of the great messaging that you see everyday.

But I must have low self-esteem, b/c I still worry that we'll somehow lose...

Posted by chris robinson | October 7, 2008 8:26 PM

Keep the faith Chris...

Remember that since the beginning Barack set out to build a movement block by block, town by town, state by state empowering ordinary people to do extraordinary things. The turn out in this election will shatter all records. I am absolutely convinced that we're gonna win this election in a landslide...They are reaching voters wherever they are, phone, email, doot to door, text, its massive and all inclusive. The McSame campaign pales in comparison...

Posted by Nemo | October 7, 2008 8:47 PM

Depends on where the new Democrats are, and whether they're actually Democrats. Remember when Limbaugh mobilized dittoheads to vote for Hillary in the primaries?

Posted by allbetsareoff | October 7, 2008 10:09 PM

allbetsareoff-

Depends on where the new Democrats are, and whether they're actually Democrats.

I am an Obama volunteer who just spent ten days gathering 475 registrations in Philadelphia. If my experience is representative, most of the new Pennsylvania Democrats are not actually Democrats at all, they are Obama supporters.

The majority of first-time voters who signed up with me were teens and twenty-somethings who didn't know what the party names were, they just knew they wanted Obama over McCain. A smaller percentage were those in their 30s and 40s who were more likely, but not guaranteed, to know that Barack was a Dem.

I should also mention that a not-inconsiderable number of people signed up as independents but intend to vote for Obama. They had made up their mind about this election but not about their political identities.

Posted by Mithras | October 7, 2008 10:22 PM