In the absence of solid information about who might take what position in the event that Sen. Barack Obama holds on to win, here's a guide to the RUMINT. Those who know aren't talking. So no one knows. And if a name isn't listed below, it means nothing... just that the transition team is doing a good job of keeping their lists close to the ground. AND -- bear in mind that it is quite possible that, aside from a few key positions, Barack Obama hasn't really given any thought to any of this. Enough throatclearing? Ok. Let's begin.
As you hear or read names, e-mail me and I'll add them to these lists. If circumstances warrant, I'll keep a similar list for the McCain administration, although Republicans aren't doing much speculating these days.
You can bet that certain DC think tanks -- the Center for American Progress, the New America Foundation -- will see their ranks depleted as dozens of their policy wonks stream into the administration.
Think that David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, will stay in Chicago? That's not clear -- many colleagues believe he will take a senior-level planning and strategy role inside the White House. Robert Gibbs, Obama's longtime chief spokesman, would naturally evolve into the White House Press Secretary or communications director. I asked David Plouffe last week what he'd do post November 4. He just smiled and looked at me as if I was crazy to even think about that stuff.
Tom Daschle -- the CW says he's first in line to be chief of staff, but the smarter money puts him atop the Department of Health and Human Services, where he'd administer the administration's health care policies. (He might also elected to serve as an adviser outside government.)
Greg Craig -- along with Susan Rice, are well positioned to take senior national security roles.
Michael Froman -- a key member of the transition team along with Chris Lu, he's mentioned as a possible chief of staff candidate. Lu would also take a senior position in the administration.
Robert Gates -- almost everyone inside the Beltway believes he'll be asked to stay on as SecDef as the transition into Afghanistan and out of Iraq is managed; he's played the politics deftly. Does Obama appoint a strong number two -- and eventual successor?
Jack Reed -- the Rhode Island senator accompanied Barack Obama to Iraq and Europe and reportedly declined to be vetted for VP. Does he want to give into government? He'd be a natural for Sec/State.
Larry Summers -- the former Harvard president and Clinton treasury secretary has become close to the Obama economic team; he is also close to Froman; he's an obvious wise man choice. On the other hand: he has obvious baggage. Women's groups will protest.
Timothy F. Geithner -- the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. Young, bold, brash, center leftish -- but might be doing so good a job where he is right now. Also: young. For some reason, we like our treasury secretaries to be of a certain vintage.
Mike Hayden -- might be asked to stay on as CIA director for a while.
Other names: Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan; Steve Rattner;
Gov. Janet Napolitano -- she could serve anywhere she wants: attorney general, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Education. Obama thinks highly of her
Gov. Tim Kaine -- he's up and out.
Gov. Kathleen Sebelius -- this former American Federation of Teachers member is rumored to be a candidate for Secretary of Education.
John Brennan -- former deputy DCI and head of the NCTC, might be in line to be Obama's director of national intelligence. But so might Tony Lake. Will CIA director Mike Hayden stay where he is?
Sen. Dick Lugar -- Secretary of State?
Other names mentioned in other publications: Joe Lieberman (Pentagon or State) John Podesta (chief of staff) Pete Rouse (chief of staff) Jim Messina (chief of staff) Luis Navarro, Edward Kaufman and Mark H. Gitenstein (Biden staff), Robert Rubin, Paul Vocker (Sec/Treas), Cassandra Butts (senior WH official, domestic policy director), Valerie Jarrett (chief of staff or counselor to the president) John Kerry, Chris Dodd, Richard Holbrooke (Sec/State), Chuck Hagel, Thomas Pickering (Sec/Def) Tim Reomer (Homeland Security), Artur Davis, Patrick Fitzgerald (Attorney General) More here.
« Counterevidence Watch: GOP Early Vote In California | Main | The Transition: The Temporary Workspace, More Names, And Rahm For CoS? » Obama's Transition: the RUMINT27 Oct 2008 11:12 am Comments (85)
Joe Lieberman??!!!! Someone is pulling someone's leg there. He's hardly on board with Obama positions on foreign policy, and likely too hawkish to be trusted at the Pentagon. Love Napolitano and Sebelius; I think Plouffe plans to sleep for a week. Maybe a month. 
Marc -- what about non-politicians? Do you know, or know how to find out, who from academia or industry would be on shortlists or be angling for positions? How does such a campaign get waged? Is anyone talking about Steven Chu for Energy Secretary? If not, why not?
Would love to see Fitzgerald as AG. Just putting him in that position would snap everyone to attention. Non-partisan and morally correct. Just look at his work on the Burge case in Chicago. No one wanted to touch it cause Daley's hands are all over it and he just came in and moved everything along and now a torturous cop will be going to prison and likely bring some corrupt pols with him. It'd be nice to have that kind of attitude at the top.
Fitzgerald and Gates definitely. Lieberman in some symbolic but pointless role perhaps. The rest I'm really unsure - I know how much Obama has praised 'Team of Rivals' - and I'm hoping he genuinely picks the best people, full stop.
Lieberman? Um, dream on. Just because someone somewhere mentions someone else's name, that doesn't make the person credible.
I think Pete Rouse is going to be chief of staff. That's the only thing I'd put money on right now.
How about Samantha Power? They distanced themselves from her after her Hillary comments, but why can't they bring her back after Nov. 4? Are there any rumblings about her involvement in an Obama administration?
"Other names mentioned in other publications: Joe Lieberman (Pentagon or State)" April Fool's Day is April 1, not Nov. 4, silly!
Any buzz about Lessig? I can't imagine a better FCC chair. Although my ultimate dream role for him would be SCOTUS...
Agree with the Lieberman comments. are you kidding me?? He is going to be shunned by democrats everywhere as he should be.
Marc, I'd just throw out the following. One of the things that helped contribute to the disaster that was 1994 was Clinton raiding Congress to fill out his cabinet. All of a sudden, people who were safe (Lloyd Benson, Les Aspin) left open vulnerable seats that made fighting off the tidal wave even harder. So I find it hard to believe that someone like Jack Reed would be in line for a cabinet spot, because he'd be replaced by a Republican. Same thing with Chris Dodd. And someone like Napolitano might have a real shot to steal a Senate seat in 2 years. I realize that the goal of politics is to govern, and the best shot of governing well would be to appoint the most capable people. But I have to believe there are a significant number of people who could do the cabinet jobs quite capably without doing damage to Democratic electoral hopes.
Wow, great stuff Marc. Never really thought of that, but what are the chances of Obama offering Lieberman a job in the executive to get rid of him in the senate? CT isn’t voting GOP anytime soon, and it might lead the way for Lamont to take his rightful position in a special election. It would snatch Lieberman from the dogs he’s taunted, and the seat would better represent its constituents. Could be a win / win for all, although I don’t like rewarding the horrible behavior of Lieberman and would like to see him scuttled from politics; the alternative might be better for the party and a progressive agenda.
I see an awful lot of Dem Govorner from Red states there. Is it smart to drain that pool just yet? Don't those folks provide good grass roots anchors to make in roads? Seems that it is robbing peter to pay paul.
A really interesting post, really. Makes me think about this thing I came across on YT that sums up what this election is all about. Time to get fired up and get past the hype!!! Makes you think: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RpIWXOX4shg
Daschle = change you can hope in Same for Daschle's former chief of staff Rouse. Ha! Most of the list reads like ‘most hated’ poster from the “liberal” whacko-sphere. GFB obama is elected but should it happen most any of those would be payback enough to the “well educated” “creative” class.
What about Bill Richardson?
Never really thought of that, but what are the chances of Obama offering Lieberman a job in the executive to get rid of him in the senate? Slim to none, because CT has a GOP governor. Better keep him where he is. I don't think Napolitano or Sebelius are going anywhere. Kaine maybe, because he's term limited. Here are the names that I've "heard": Howard Dean at HHS
He'll have to wait a few years for Governor Napolitano...we cannot spare her here in AZ.
I nominate Joe Liebermann as Secretary for Janitorial services =) Room with a view of four brick walls in the basement.
Joe Lieberman??? Are you insane? It would make sense if there was a Dem governor in Conn. but there isn't. What idiotic publication mentioned Lieberman as a possibility?
Oracle: Slim to none, because CT has a GOP governor. Better keep him where he is. As, so a defacto appointment by the Gov and no special election? Tried looking that up, but couldn't find anything on CT law. Anyone know if that's true or where to look?
I agree that Richardson will get his. (I'm also afraid that Lieberman won't.) Can Montana afford to let Schweitzer head Energy?
No way for Lieberman! If there's one person who will receive vendetta treatment from BO, it's Joe. Watch, in four years the Obama White House will send a hit squad to CT and take the guy out for good (assuming he's too ignorant to see the writing on the wall and step down). First, he's losing his seniority and positions within the Dems. Next, he'll switch his registration to R and vote party line completely. Third, he'll wake up in four years out of work, without much in-state respect and with zero favor from the Obama family.
He's not worth a vendetta - he's no threat, which is why it might be worth a symbolic gesture which costs nothing and can be used for the 'unity' message. Give him an embassy somewhere. He'll take it, since he knows he backed the wrong horse and he wont get elected anywhere again save perhaps Florida. I wonder what position he was lined up for in McCain's cabinet? The hit squads will be out for people that might matter in 2012. That ain't Joe.
A democratic wins a mandate in both electoral and popular votes and he is going to give away the most powerful cabinet position (state) and defense to republicans - _and_ promote the disloyal lieberman? Time to get out of la la land. The mandate is for change, not 4 more years of the same.
The real irony here would be if the Dems end up with 58 senate seats + Sanders, meaning that Lieberman would be the critical 60th vote so that after two years of tolerating him as #51, we're in for at least two more of tolerating him as #60.
To echo Patrick: The narrative that says that Republicans can best protect America's national security has been intensely harmful to the country. The time to start tearing down that narrative is now. Why not Lake for Sec-Def? Or Carl Levin, who is from a safe seat with a Democratic Governor. (Unlike Sen. Reed, unfortunately.)
Marc, All prognosticators are idiots, so count me in.. :-) Secretary of State will go to Sen Richard Lugar. He and Obama have a working relationship, and agree with and on an approach for Iraq and Afghanistan.
If read Buffett's name as a possible treas sec. Not sure if he would take it, but the Oracle of Omaha has worked closely with the Obama campaign.
Leiberman?! Leiberman?! I want all my campaign donations back immediately. Gates, Fitzgerald, Lugar all good.
You have to be high to think Lieberman or Gates will be in an Obama administration. That is pure figment of the villager’s imaginations and further evidence of how disconnected they are from the real world. Powers will be in his administration for sure. There is no reason not to and if someone raises a stink because of what she said about Hillary I would guess Obama would have her lined up in advance to say nice things about Powers. I have no reason to think any one in Washington is considering this guy, but it would not surprise me at all if Obama didn’t bring Andrew Bracevich (sp?) on in some form.
What does 'Kaine: up and out' mean? Anyone?
I wasn't a part of the Dump Lieberman Chorus in 2006, but his actions since then, especially on the campaign trail this year make me think I should have been. It's one thing to name Republicans to a cabinet, as I hope Obama does. But to name a former Democrat who endorsed your opponent and constantly tore down your good name? Joe Lieberman doesn't deserve to be Undersecretary of Pet Food Inspection.
Are there really so few women available for these lists? If the Cabinet is so full of old white men come January, an awful lot of us will be very disappointed (and no, I wasn't a Hillary supporter)>
I think Sec. Health is going to be a HUGE PUBLIC role for whomever gets it. If Obama wants to see it pass, it needs to be someone who can get it passed in the Senate PLUS help make the sale to the public. Hillary? Doubtful. Liz Edwards? I dunno... I thought she'd have had a shot pre-affair, but that was just so ugly. But I think she'd be more likely than Daschle.
I think him putting Hillary in the cabinet would be a HUGE mistake for one of the same reasons it would have been a mistake to pick her as VP. One thing anyone with half a brain has to consider is the opportunity cost of taking the person out of their current position, regardless of how good they would be in the position you want to appoint them to. Health care legislation will likely be one of Obama's biggest attempted legislative accomplishments. So why would you remove who is likely to be one of your most effective field generals in that push from the field (and making it even worse is the only other plausable high profile person to lead the effort from inside Congress, Kennedy, is ill). It would be like suddenly moving Patten to the headquarters staff halfway through his push across Europe. It would be a mistake to take her out of Congress.
The comments here reinforce my thought that Lugar would be a good SOS.
Lieberman? Huh? Frackin' Lieberman? You or whoever is floating this (must be Lieberman himself, methinks) is completely insane. As an Obama supporter from before he even announced, I'd have to say I'd be incensed if Lieberman keeps a senate chairmanship, let alone a post of any kind other than Chief Toilet Cleaner in an Obama administration. A team of rivals assumes equality of character and intelligence if not opinion. Lieberman has neither character or intelligence. And he will send Obama's most loyal supporters into complete and utter rage. Not gonna happen.
Matt Yglesias for Secretary of Transportation!
Why do we need to put a Republican in the Secretary of State or Defense positions. Doesn't this just reinforce the image that the Republicans are necessary to do the 'serious' jobs i.e. State or Defense but when Republicans give Democrats a cabinet position it is just Norm Mineta as Sec. of Transportation. No to Gates or Lugar. Definitely no to Liebermann. Hagel needed to endorse Obama to qualify.
Do they really think they will pick off enough seats to afford taking in so many Senators? I think we will find most Senators staying put. 60 is not going to happen if you keep pulling people out. You already lose Obama and Biden. Reed too? Lieberman? Are we crazy? Even so, for now, it is better to keep someone who caucuses with you on most issues, even though he will defect on Iraq.
Hegel: Vet Affairs, it needs a major overhaul and someone who cares about the issue. Perhaps with Warner. Lessig: Obama has said he wants a Chief Technology Officer. Someone to bring transparency to the government, that is right up Lessig's bailiwick. Shirley Franklin: Definitely HUD Finally, Dept. of Energy is going to be a huge position and require someone with enormous diplomatic skills to transition us from our current positions domestically and globally.
Mo:
I’m skeptical that the fancy names that everyone knows will be interested in some of these jobs. Is Edsall just pulling this stuff out of his butt or is this it sourced? Rendell at Commerce? Arnold at Energy? Andy Stern at Labor? The guy’s one of the most important progressives in the country, and he’s going to become an Administration apparatchik? I’m certain George Miller is far more powerful as Chairman of Education and Workforce. Miller at Interior seems even more far-fetched. It must be said that, other than State/DoD/Justice/Treasury, being in the Cabinet kind of sucks...which is why many on the A-List take a pass. I worked in three tier 2 Departments in the Clinton Administration, and if the sun rose on a given day, there were grumbles about junior White House staffers bossing us around and the fact that you can’t do a damned thing without approval from OMB.
HHS is beneath Daschle. HA! Shit, Sec. of Agriculture wouldn't be beneath Daschle. I second marbury's request for clarification on "Gov. Tim Kaine -- he's up and out." WTF is that supposed to mean? Also, Lugar is a shoo-in for Energy.
Michael Pollan for Sec of Ag. What about Bubba, could he be made Ambassador to the UN to placate the Clintons? I could also see Powell in that role. Lieberman, for all his bad choices, is still a pretty smart guy. It might be good to give him a relatively short term cabinet post, just to get his seat back on the Dem side of the ledger.
JKC, Actually, it was Obama that mentioned him in the debate. I think he'd be a great Treas Sec, though I agree, he'd never want to leave Berkshire. Though, maybe in the spirit of his giant donation to the Gates Foundation, he'll give Americans some charity and take over Treasury for a couple of years. His biographer doesn't think it will happen though.
Ok this talk of transition gives me the creeps. I know rationally that it is sound judgment to plan for this ahead of time... But you know what, Obama may not win this thing on Nov 4... And as a Chicago resident the potential for an all-out mourning in my city in addition to the economic gloom is not a good prospect!
The governor of RI is a Republican, so Reed would be a poor cabinet choise. The Lt. Gov. in VA is a Republican, so Kaine would also be a poor choice.
Is Krugman on no-one's lists?
Gov. Janet Napolitano certainly seems like a good advocate for Obama, but assuming that McCain retires, wouldn't she want to look at the Senate seat?
I think I recognized most of the names on the list and I don't think any were African-American. Wouldn't it be ironic if GWB had more African-Americans in his cabinet than a President Obama? He wouldn't dare.
Michelle Rhee (current DC public schools chancellor) for secretary of education? She's a reformer who has shaken things up in the district. Both McCain and Obama spoke highly of her during the final debate.
Kaine is definitely going into the cabinet in some capacity. He can't run again next year, so why not? I've heard the Lt. Governor is a maniac and he would get a primary challenge next year so it might actually work out.... I think Gates is sticking around for a year or two, afterwards Obama will put a Democrat in there. I hope Richardson gets State, think he would be good there. Lugar is a needed friend on the foreign relations committee. Holder will be the next AG, no doubt....Daschle as Chief of Staff, Obama is as close to him as anybody who's mentioned here...I hope Napolitano and Sebelius run for Senate in 2010, but they're great servants so bring 'em aboard....
Attention Lieberman haters: Appointing Joe Lieberman to an Obama administration would be a political masterstroke. Here's why: Obama has been running against politics-as-usual and partisanship for the past 20 months. One of the best ways to show he actually practices what he preaches would be to appoint a member of the losing team to the cabinet. McCain himself would likely say no to any post -- he takes politics too personally -- and Palin is toxic. So who's next in the inner circle? Lieberman and Graham, either one of which would make a good conciliatory pick. But picking Lieberman yields a bonus, because it also removes him from the Senate and allows the appointment of an actual Democrat in his place, thus consolidating the majority. The trick would be to find a post for Lieberman that's both high-profile and harmless. State and Defense are out -- those plums have to go to loyal Dems -- so how about Homeland Security? After all, he already chairs the committee...
Re: Rubin or Summers at Treasury. I can't wait to hear from Brooksley Born at the confirmation hearing. Actually, what about Brooksley Born? As Martin Mayer noted, "Ms. Born has made a deposit and she is entitled to do some withdrawing."
I've read elsewhere that Robert Gibbs would be White House Communications Director and Linda Douglass would be White House Press Secretary (which is similar to their current campaign roles).
Hey, what about John Edwards at AG? Did something happen to him?? Oh, wait . . .
Regarding the speculation on Sebelius getting Secretary of Education, I've heard talk of her getting Sec of Energy and Caroline Kennedy getting Sec of Education. Of course, that was just from some talking heads that have no real information, but it's fun to spaculate.
Austen Goolsbee to CEA Corzine is another darkhorse for Sec-Tres
i've seen holbrooke's name pop up as a potential director of national intel. I think that's a lot more likely than him at state.
I like Lugar a lot at State - he's well-respected abroad, I think, as much as Richardson - but he would also be a sign that US foreign policy isn't doing a 180, it's just moving back into sanity. Lugar would send a message that we're back to being serious and willing to work with our allies, focus more on diplomacy - but that we're not about to be pushed around. That said - Lugar is 76 - that seems a bit on the old side for someone who's going to have a lot of work to do.
I give the thumbs down on Lieberman too. I've never understood people's elevated opinion of him. I'd love to see CHUCK HAGEL in Obama's cabinet. There's a great New Yorker article about him (Nov. 3rd issue), that reveals what kind of man he is. It's on-line here: I was bummed to hear he wasn't running for re-election in the Senate, and I don't even live in his state. So the possibility of having him in the Obama administration...well, that just curls my toes.
Hey whats the best way to get joe out of the senate, give him some low profile role in the administration.
Colin Powell was mentioned as a possibility after his endorsement, I'd like to see him back at Secretary of State or at the Pentagon. I think Samantha Powers will be one of his advisers if not a formal cabinet position. Caroline Kennedy as also been mentioned, she could possibly be his Chief of Staff or an ambassador somewhere. What about a dark horse? Bill Clinton as ambassador to the UN. Very outside possibility but he does have a positive image overseas, he's been doing his disaster relief spiel with HW, he lives in NYC, and it could be a way of appeasing the Clintons once and for all. Just something to consider.
OK, here's a new one: Tammy Duckworth for Veterans' Affairs. If she gets picked I'll look like a genius.
Obama has said that Fitzgerald will stay put in Chicago. Promoting Fitzgerald would have the whiff of a quid pro quo to get him off of Richard Daley's back.
"Thinking Clearly" wrote:
Yeah, why reward a sensible Republican with a seat at the table when you can give the plum to a turncoat blowhard? Does anyone honestly believe that the Republicans see Lieberman as a member of their team? The guy's a useful idiot, but that's it. But picking Lieberman yields a bonus, because it also removes him from the Senate and allows the appointment of an actual Democrat in his place, thus consolidating the majority. Do your homework before spouting off these fantasies in public.
There were also rumors that Sarah Palin would be Obama's fashion consultant. Plus, Rudy Giuliani would be White House Press Secretary.
If Chris Gregoire loses her re-election effort in Washington State she would be an obvious choice for heading the EPA. Also qualified for AG.
lieberman will be knowhere near this cabinet.
hmmm Virginia gives Obama the presidency by going Democratic for the first time since LBJ -- and it's reward is a year of right wing B-lister Bill Bolling as governor? Please. let Tim Kaine serve out his term. He can be anything in Jan 2010...
The previous set of Bush people offer some solid lessons. Barack's economic team has got to connect with the American people. The academic, quant types like Geithner will have significant hurdles to building the trust of Americans. And if someone tells me that _Jaime Dimon_ another one of these hucksters is at the window of control, influence, I will know that my support for Obama was a mistake. The leadership needs a Claire McCaskill type. I don't care if the person can blackbox a swap, or if they can count currency valuations in their head. I want trust and good communicators ( Geithner/Dimon, are kidding?)
Fomer Peace Corps volunteers favor Caroline Kennedy as Director of Peace Corps ...carrying the legacy of JFK to the Obamaa adminsitration
Any job for Hilary Clinton? Do most insiders feel that the Clintons have paid their dues to be in the Obama club? Recalling LBJ's remarks about "Better inside the tent pi**ing out, then outside the tent pi**ing in", and the Godfather's "Keep your friends close, but your enemies closer", would it not be wise to give Hilary a substantial, not necessarily central, role in the Administration? I hope Samantha Power is back on the team. Colin Powell as a Special Representative in a place like Central Asia - if Obama is going to tackle Al Qaeda in Pakistan, Central Asia (Afghanistan, Uzbekistan etc) may be more strategically critical than the Middle East. Joe Lieberman is going to end up being despised by Democrats (as a turncoat), and by Repubicans (as ineffectual and untrustworthy) so I think he should be left to his own devices.
John Lewis for HUD Secretary. He's a natural for the job, and very popular on both sides of the isle.
How about Cory Booker at HUD?
Marc is a good reporter, but like all these "parlor game" reports, its flawed. I know for a fact Biden hardly talks to his COS Navarro. Very little chance Luis gets anything worthwhile from the VP shop.
Nothing against Fitzgerald for AG, but what about Sen. Russ Feingold of Wisconsin? It'd sure be nice to have someone who actually stood up against warrantless wiretapping, torture, and the denial of habeas corpus in charge of the Justice Dept.
I'm sure Napolitano would love to escape from the wreckage she has created in AZ, but I hope she is forced to stay and try to fix what she has done.
Hi Thank you for a good public service in this article.
While Republicans haven't speculated much on a new R. cabinet yet, I understand that McCain has selected a food taster, to begin working as of inauguration day.
How about Jeffrey Sachs as Secretary of the Department of Global Development, a new Cabinet position?
Obama's stated intention to have bipartisan participation in his cabinet is fraught with danger. Remember how such a strategy contributed to the undermining of Carter (ie Iran-Contra)? Lieberman has little to offer but deceit. Reasonable Republicans should be supported and nurtured in congress so that legislation may be passed.
|
Subscribe to this blog by Email Twitter || On Facebook || QIK Live Channel  Recent Posts
Monthly Archives
|
| 
Copyright © 2009 by The Atlantic Monthly Group. All rights reserved.
Joe Lieberman at the beginning of the last paragraph has to be a typo. Make him ambassador to Upper Kreplakistan.
Posted by gaucho | October 27, 2008 11:20 AM