The Atlantic Electoral Map: 10/14

The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states.

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH  (67 electoral votes)

Toss-ups: FL, OH, NE-2, NV, CO, VA, NC, MO (101 electoral votes)

Lean McCain: GA, IN, MT, SD, WV  (36) electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, ND, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 264 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 173 electoral votes

Tossups: 101 electoral votes

** ALL of the 2004 Kerry states are now solidly turning for Obama or they lean in his direction.

** ALL of the tossups states (and the one CD) were won by George W. Bush in 2004.

** West Virginia moves from SOLID McCain to lean McCain; Missouri is once again a toss-up; New Hampshire and Pennsylvania move into Obama's category solidly.

** Indiana is on the cusp of moving from lean McCain to tossup. 

** Though the McCain-Palin ticket traveled to eastern Iowa, public and private polling for Dems and Republicans shows Obama to be ahead by double digits.  McCain's internal polling shows a deficit analogous to what the campaign believes is his national deficit -- about six points.

** West Virginia: There are two counties in the Washington, D.C. DMA: Berkeley and
Jefferson. Obama's been organizing fairly heavily in those counties; the state in my estimation still leans to McCain, although the Democratic ticket might soon make another visit. (Biden visited in September.)

** Watching Colorado very closely... it might soon lean Obama.