The Atlantic Electoral Map October 7 Reskin Edition

The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in those states. MARGINAL TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns seem to be asserting themselves but exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning to a particular candidate at this point. TRUE TOSS UPS -- states where historical voting patterns are not asserting themselves AND exogenous factors prevent the electorate from leaning.

-----------

Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)

Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI (42 electoral votes)

Marginal toss-ups:  FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)

True toss-ups: NV, CO, VA, NC  (42 electoral votes)

Lean McCain:  GA, IN, MO, MT, SD (43 electoral votes)

Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE 1, OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY, ND (141 electoral votes)

Obama: likely + leaners: 239 electoral votes

McCain: likely + leaners = 184  electoral votes

Tossups: 115 electoral votes

NH and PA probably lean Obama at this point, but I'm not moving them yet due to insufficient analysis and lingering cultural/racial issues for Obama in PA.

Iowa -- moves from lean Obama to SOLID Obama.

Minnesota - still enough traction for McCain here so as to warrant a lean-Obama designation, but even Al Franken is moving up.

North Carolina: -- Republicans are convinced that Elisabeth Dole will lose her seat.  Public and private polling show the race to be a real tie.

Michigan - Last night, the Michigan Republican Party released a survey conducted for the MIRS newsletter showing Obama with a five point lead in Michigan, hoping to pressure the McCain campaign to revisit its decision to pull ads from the state.

Wisconsin -- the polls are holding; Wisconsin now leans Obama.

Virginia: Obama is performing at or near 60% in Northern Virginia in just about every survey, and Republicans concede that the Obama ground game dwarfs their own. Obama has spent a lot of time here recently.

Ohio: The state stubbornly resisted Obama's charm until the bottom fell out of the economy, and now it's coming around. McCain's decision to withdraw from Michigan gives Obama time for a liesurely two-day bus tour through Ohio later this week.
 
NE 2: Sarah Palin's drop-in here was a clear sign that team Arlington is worried about the 2nd congressional district around Omaha.

Comments

Marc -

Good list, but perhaps you could clarify about "marginal tossups".

You list: FL, NH, WI, PA, OH, NE 2 (73 electoral votes)

You really should just make these "Obama slightly favored" or "McCain slightly favored". Many of us are confused as to whether you believe that FL/OH are leaning marginally towards Obama or marginally towards McCain.

For the rest, it's fairly clear which way they're leaning (NE2 towards McCain, PA, WI, NH towards Obama).

Posted by Virginia Centrist | October 7, 2008 9:49 AM

I still say CO should be "lean Obama." Only one poll in the last upteen has shown McCain ahead, and it's crappy ARG. Most show a 4-6 point Obama edge.

Posted by Joe | October 7, 2008 10:00 AM

I think Marc needs to decide whether he is analyzing the map where it is right now (where PA, WI, and NH are not toss-ups, but NC and NE 2 are) and where it will be for a close race (where PA, WI, and NH would be toss-ups, but NC and NE 2 are lean McCain).

Posted by Greg | October 7, 2008 10:00 AM

Mark, Three polls now have Obama up at least 8 points in NH. You should make the move.

Posted by champt10 | October 7, 2008 10:01 AM

You need to also remember to include NE3 in the Likely McCain list. It's actually his safest electoral vote of all, safer than Utah.

Posted by DBX | October 7, 2008 10:07 AM

www.pollster.com

Unlike you, they don't pull this shit out of their ass.

Posted by Craig | October 7, 2008 10:41 AM

Looks almost right. Why is PA still in marginal toss-up status?

I think at the Presidential level GA and SD are Safe McCain. If anything ND is the lean one, no?

But much closer than previous efforts.

Posted by Nicholas Beaudrot | October 7, 2008 11:20 AM

Wisconsin is listed twice.

Posted by Will | October 7, 2008 12:00 PM

It's all a little silly, since America is firmly in the "Likely Obama" camp.

It's sweet. Election Day can't come fast enough. The Age Of Stupid is about to end!

Posted by MoeLarryAndJesus | October 7, 2008 12:12 PM

I'm going to have to defend Marc from doubters just this once. With the exception of IN, which I'd say is a "true tossup," his map looks right on the money. And yes, ge's even right to be a tad wary of calling PA for Obama. Race is a big deal there.

Posted by Dirk | October 7, 2008 12:21 PM

Pennsylvania is at +15 Obama according to Survey USA, and +10 Obama according to Morning Call. But - we better call those toss ups, because of like, rascism and stuff.

My respect for this blog just took a huge nose dive.

Posted by John | October 7, 2008 3:25 PM

I love the fact that everyone buys into the Pennsylvania is Philly and Pittsburgh with Alabama in the middle argument. One third of the electorate lives in the Philadelphia metropolitan area, and the Philadelphia suburbs have been trending from Republican to Democrat. The MSM assumes that Hillary won the election because of these 'cultural" issues with the white working class. Not true, she won because she had the strong support of Governor Ed Rendell, Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter, Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl and the Pennylvania State Democratic party.
Obama was down twenty in PA after the Ohio primary, and did a pretty good job in getting it to nine. He will have the entire Philadelphia party apparatus behind him, you will have strong support in Philadelphia which will cancel any cultural issues that may come from other areas of the state. Do your homework in PA. If Kerry could win in 2004 with far less going for him, Obama will win by at least six percent in PA.

Posted by Kitibo | October 7, 2008 6:24 PM