The distribution and categories are based on polling, historical
trends, conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart
analysts in those states.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA (89) electoral votes)
Toss-ups: FL, OH, NV, NC, MO, IN (89) electoral votes)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, ND, WV, NE-2 (26) electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, SD, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY, ND (137) electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 286 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 163 electoral votes
Tossups: 89 electoral votes
** ALL of the 2004 Kerry states are now solidly turning for Obama or they lean in his direction. New Mexico and Iowa are solidly in Obama's corner.
Colorado moves to LEAN Obama on the basis of the McCain campaign's advertising concessions there, Obama's strength in the polls, and evidence of depression within McCain's field organization.
Virginia moves to LEAN Obama.
Nebraska's 2nd congressional district moves to LEAN McCain from toss-up.
Indiana moves from LEAN McCain to TOSSUP on the basis of polling, Obama's organizational advantages, and conversations with McCain and Obama advisers.
West Virginia remains LEAN McCain.
There is no reason to move Iowa from LIKELY Obama. It's not clear why McCain is traveling to the state.
ALL of the tossups states were won by George W. Bush in 2004.
In terms of their likelihood to flip to Obama:
Iowa, New Mexico -- tier one.
Colorado, Virginia, Florida -- tier two.
Ohio, North Carolina -- tier three.
Missouri, Indiana, Montana -- tier four.
« Palin In 2012: The Argument | Main | GOPWars: The First Major Event » The Atlantic Electoral Map 10/2323 Oct 2008 11:39 am Comments (30)
Why is Pennsylvania "lean Obama"? He's up in all polls by double-digits. If Pennsylvania is "lean Obama", then Texas should be "lean McCain." 
By your own argument ("Colorado, Virginia, Florida -- tier two."), Florida should be "leans Obama" rather than toss-up.
I think you mixed up North and South Dakota. North Dakota leans McCain. South Dakota is the solid McCain.
Of your list of Bush states Obama can win you omit Nevada. Tier 1 or 2. And at least 3 recent polls have shown Obama tied or ahead in North Dakota. Tier 4 with IN and MO. Unless internal polls are different for MT no poll has shown Obama ahead there in the last 2 months. But if ND can do it so can they, plus they have Democrats in both senate seats and governor. If Montanans could be convinced Obama doesn't care about their guns, I bet he'd win.
I think Indiana is likely to go Obama, since McCain is getting into the game there way too late. Just a sense--the McCain folks got outplayed by Obama's team, unsurprising when you've got Steve Schmidt up against David Axelrod. Steve Schmidt: when Mark Penn costs too much. http://www.balloon-juice.com/?p=12744 South Dakota might actually be closer than people realize as well. The only recent polling out of there is the Mason-Dixon poll, which usually tilts Republican, has McCain leading 48-41. If that poll understates Obama's support--if he's really, say, four points down--and if McCain's supporters there get complacent it might flip. Judging by the Mason-Dixon poll, I think it does belong in the "Lean McCain" category, and North Dakota belongs in the tossup.
The media is still trying go manufacture an artificially close race -- and as an Obama supporter that might be a good thing, to guard against overconfidence. Michigan? The state McCain conceded weeks ago? No new polls but the three most recent ones had Obama +16, +16o and +18. Minnesota? I guess Marc's going on the last SUSA poll that has Obama up only +6 but three other recent polls put Obama +12. And McCain is not really trying here either. Wisconsin? Give me a break! There have been five polls since 10/12 and they're +8, +11, +12, +13 and +15. That excludes a 10/10 Q-poll with Obama +17. These are damn strong "leaners" if you ask me. An finally, not that North Dakota will matter much, but how the hell is that "likely" McCain. Does Marc even read the polls? The last two polls in N.D. have a tie and Obama +2. I'm not saying Obama is going to win or even that the GOP stronghold is a "toss-up" but if Wisconsin, Minnesota and Michigan are all "leaners" for Obama then N.D. sure is one as well.
Obama will win every lean and toss up state... the question today is which Lean McCain states he can pick off to hit 400 EV's.
Welcome to the reality based version of America, Marc! This makes Chuck Todd and NBC News one of the few remaining holdouts in the Too Close to Call Caucus. Something isn't right with how you have listed the Dakotas. SD is more of a likely McCain and ND is arguably a toss up or at least a lean McCain. Also I'm not sure why you hesitate to move Kerry states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota where Obama leads by double digits into the likely Obama column.
How in the world is ND a "likely McCain"? Do you not look at polls? Otherwise I agree with you on everything except PA as lean rather than likely--that's based purely on media spin.
I'll join the chorus who claim you've mixed up the Dakotas, and that Nevada should make that flip list. And I doubt PA polls are wrong, but there's no harm in ensuring Dem gotv efforts there and in OH.
Good call on Colorado. Early/mail voting numbers are going to be key. Republicans usually have better than a 60-40 advantage over Democrats. As of yesterday, early voting numbers were split right down the middle (I think there were actually about 200 more Republican early + mail voters than Democratic as of yesterday, out of 250,000 or so cast), with a ton of independents who are polling 60-40 in favor of Obama in most CO polls. Plus, given that the plurality of mail ballots have been turned in (running about 51-49 GOP-Dem), but early voting has just begun (running 2:1 Dem-GOP), I suspect that you will eventually see a 55-45 or 60-40 Democratic edge in everyone voting before 11/4. And doing the math, if that's the case (and assuming voters split 90-10 in favor of their registered party, with independents breaking a conservative 53-47 in favor of Obama), then Obama is going to enter Election Day with a 56.5-43.5 lead with about 50% of the votes cast. You can't overcome that if you are McCain.
Go to fivethirtyeight.com if you want to see a great site that give you a more complete statistical picture of the race.
Or more bluntly, go to fivethirtyeight if you want to read someone who has a clue statistically.
I'm stunned that the site allows the kind of garbage posted by "Fred" to stay up in the comments section. Didn't it occur to anyone who works there to offer visitors the option to flag inappropriate posts, the way you can on, oh I don't know, EVERY other blog? Barring that, the lazy way out would be a simple email link or form adjacent to the comments, requiring us to do the work of identifying the problem but at least giving us that option. Nope, that's not there either. Giving psychopaths like "Fred" a forum to spew their bile is so utterly at odds with The Atlantic's ethos that I can only assume it's the result of an incompetent technical staff, and not an editorial decision. Whatever the cause, you should be ashamed.
There is no reason to move Iowa from LIKELY Obama. It's not clear why McCain is traveling to the state. He's dedicating the remainder of this election to stirring up race resentment. It's not that hard to figure out. He's not trying to win Iowa, he's trying to sow the seeds of discord across white America.
I think Mark can't believe the tide that the polls show. Certainly Nevada is at least tier 3 and probably tier 2. Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin are all stronger for Obama than a number of the likely McCain states. Every Pennsylvanis poll this week has Obama up at least 10. The only North Dakota polls this month have the race either tied or Obama ahead. One typo as well. There are ony 3 Congressional districts in Nebraska.
@Phil I think what Marc means by NE-4 and 5 is that the statewide winner is Likely McCain. There are three congressional districts in Nebraska, which translates to five electoral votes. The winner in each Congressional district gets an EV and then the statewide winner gets an additional two EVs.
The only one of these I would disagree with it MO in a lower tier than OH - it's clearly now safer for Obama than OH is. I think IN is purely a differential turnout story - there are 4 large universities in the State. If they all turn out, the State goes to Obama by 5 points.
"He's not trying to win Iowa, he's trying to sow the seeds of discord across white America." He picked a helluva Iowa town to do it. A factory town like Waterloo's got some pretty deeply seated racial resentments.
Your rankings are at least a week behind. Talk about conservative methodology. Try using Pollster.com as a source - they are far more reliable than this.
If you read this, and then the post above, it's clear that the author of this blog neither reads his comments nor is moved to change his weird opinions by actual events.
Actually, Mr. Merle, I do read them. My milkshake (a.k.a., predictions) brings all the boys to the yard.
Marc: you've got North Dakota listed twice (once out of alphabetical order under "likely McCain" and once as "lean McCain"). Also, there's a mathematical error; assuming that North Dakota is supposed to be "lean McCain," the "likely McCain" entries have 136 electoral votes, not 137, and the "lean McCain" entries total 27 electoral votes, not 26. I'm guessing you forgot to take Nebraska-2 into account in the final totals.
Marc: Should I start a "Jenna Bush and a loaf of stale bread in 2024" rumor site to make yours look sane by comparison?
Assuming Sen. John McCain wins the election, the first phase of the first major battle of the war for the heart, soul and resources of the Republican Party will take place in Miami at the Republican Governors Association winter meeting from Nov. 12-14. This guy is such an amateur. Marc, have you started looking for job opportunities for post-November 4th?
Why the hell is PA a lean state, stop believe the bullshit spin coming out the McCain campaign, it's not even close. Marc, how about some critical thinking once in a while?
Yeah,sure Mark. Admit it. You are just one more Republican in denial. Mcain is history. period. End of conversation. Ditto Reagan conservatism. Not a moment too soon.
Ohio is "tier 3" in likelihood to flip to Obama... uh, as low as tier 3 based on what, exactly? Clinton won it in 92 and 96, it has a popular Dem governor, the Rs got wiped out there in2006, and its a toss up in the polls.
Mark, I think you need more categories. Some of your Lean Obama states are not "lean" anything, they're pretty much safe. If you want a gradient, then I'd suggest having another category for "Likely Obama." Here's an electoral college preview I did the other day including each state's unemployment data: The Electoral College and Unemployment
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You finally got it right Marc! We knew this at least 3 weeks ago.
Posted by Rebecca | October 23, 2008 11:46 AM