Pew, which has some of the best cross-tabs in the business, has Obama up 14 among likely voters. He is tied with McCain among whites; he leads by 20 points among independents; he leads among men (by seven points) and women (by 20 points.)
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They're just not. The NBC News / Wall Street Journal poll credits Obama's ten point lead among registered voters to his strength among women, suburban voters and Catholics. About as many Americans have confidence in Obama's ability to be commander in chief as they have confidence in McCain.
Pew, which has some of the best cross-tabs in the business, has Obama up 14 among likely voters. He is tied with McCain among whites; he leads by 20 points among independents; he leads among men (by seven points) and women (by 20 points.)
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» Dissecting the AP poll that says the race is tied from A Couple Things Comments (13)
They're just not. Well, not for the reality based. And it's true 8 years of Bush have driven many into that once-despised subgroup. However, if you are one of Bachman's REAL Americans living in Palin's REAL small town America, or maybe posting at Red State, or you are Bill Kristol, then the polls are closing, and real doubts are arising about That One--what do we know about him, after all? He could be a cylon. 
Looking at the cross-tabs, it seems this sample is a very rich one. Over 33% of the respondents (867/2599) make over $75,000? Cmon. The U.S. Census Bureau in 2005 placed the percentage of people making over $75,000 at 26.7% Don't mean to be a wet blanket, but this has to explain the inflated numbers.
Barack Obama trails by 3 points among non-college educated whites. And he's behind by 7 among white men. John Kerry, like every other Democrat since 1964, got crushed by white men and non-college educated whites.
not sure if i agree with Fr2B's analysis. the sample presented is of likely voters, not an exact replica of the US population. I would argue that if wealthier people vote in greater proportion relative to poorer people, the oversampling of those making over 75K makes sense.
Not to mention that the over $75K set is dragging Obama's numbers *down* here. Obama looks something like +30 for those under $50K. Freaking elitists.
Something helpful would be a chart showing at a glance "adjustments" that were made to various polls in order to bring them more in line with what the MSM wants. On a related note, maybe Ambinder could ask some of his friends in the MSM what impact they think their coverage is going to have on their careers. For instance, not too many people are going to buy milk from China anytime soon. What if individual reporters were the same way? That is, a good percentage of those who saw that a story was written by a specific reporter didn't bother reading the article because they'd been made familiar with that reporter's lies on BHO's behalf. What if something like that happened to dozens of top MSM reporters? Maybe Ambinder should ask them.
I have no evidence to base this on, but could that 75k figure be household income as opposed to per capita income? That could explain a lot. Either that, or only people who hate America answer their telephones.
This is excellent news....FOR JOHN MCCAIN!!!
You just wait until that audio tape of Michelle Obama going all crazy to an African website hits the pavement. I have heard it is going to to be released to that guy who is on a hunger strike outside in Hawaii until they release his REAL birth certificate...once it passes through Norwegian customs, and Jerome Corsi gives them his bank account number.
Marc, We always enjoy reading your "take" on this election! Hope all is well with you, Mr. B.
Boy! Still are some deluded people bringing up that old, discredited canard about Obama's birth certificate. If he weren't a native-born American, the Constitution says HE CAN'T BE PRESIDENT!!
AP poll just released has the race tied. I would call that tightening.
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While the national polls are great (from an elitist Obamabot standpoint) the state polls are where it counts. And we are competitive in (drumroll, please) North Dakota, North Carolina and Georgia!
Hoi polloi!
Posted by donovong | October 21, 2008 8:40 PM