Going into this debate, Gov. Sarah Palin is the story. Every look, glance, gesture, utterance, sentence, every alveolar sound will be dissected and compared to her resonant convention speech in September.
Headed out of the debate, the McCain campaign wants Sen. Joe Biden, and, by proxy, Sen. Obama, to be the story.
There is no single expectation level for Palin to meet tonight. There are, quite obviously, a half dozen different levels corresponding to the difference audiences.
The American public wants to know whether Gov. Palin has the stature to stand on the world stage with Biden, Obama and McCain, that she is not manifestly different; that she is exceptional.
Unengaged liberal Democrats are waiting for her to drag her knuckles across the stage.
Engaged liberal Democrats expect her to emote and preen, to be folksy and rural, to avoid substance.
In the McCain campaign: frankly, expectations are high -- perhaps nowhere higher. The weight of the world is on Gov. Palin; she needs to avoid mistakes, challenge Sen. Biden, help to turn the narrative of the race back to Barack Obama, and to recapture her public image.
The media -- well, various different elements are watching for different things. Some, let's be honest, expect a knuckle-dragger too, but others will give her the win if she avoids major errors and finds a way to rise above her talking points.
The Obama campaign believes that the expectations game is absurd. Joe Biden cannot be mean, but he can't be nice, because that would be sexist too. He can't be too senatorial, but he can't be too regular, etc. Aides expect Joe Biden to do just fine.
Professional conservatives hope that Palin comes off as minimally competent.
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