Here's a thought: the wave of establishment Republican-types endorsing obama is
going to lead to a massive, massive anti-elite backlash in the 2012 GOP
primary. think about the Democrats' anti-establishment feelings in
2003 -- Howard Dean, the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party,, and then gin up the outrage by factor of ten.
Whether the nominee ends up being palin or huckabee or someone
else, that nominee is going to have to cater to these feelings of anger
and betrayal in order to get the nod.
And here, both Palin and Huckabee have a built in advantage. The GOP base, by and large, will not blame Palin for McCain's failure to win the election -- if, of course, he fails to win the election. The base seems to love her.
The question is whether her political recalibration will be enough by 2012 to sustain a political majority outside the Republican Party. Mike Huckabee doesn't need to rethink himself all that much -- a few positions here, a few positions there, some emphasis in different corners -- and he might well present himself as the most electable conservative candidate.
again, i come down on the
side of palin here. i'm guessing that the GOP primary is going to be
all about telling the base that it's not their fault, and palin is
going to be second to none on that score.
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Whats up with the punctuation on this, bro? 
Yeah, you can pretty much rule out Huckabee and Palin as viable national candidates -- way too Christianist. Keep digging.
Oh God, please please please let Sarah Palin be the GOP nominee in '12! Eight years of Barack Obama sounds pretty good to me!
More likely, Palin will end up as a strange footnote in history- does anyone talk about Quayle or Ferraro with any seriousness any more? Think they ever had a chance at a primary?
Haha, Mitt Romney has positioned himself so well that it is complete lunacy to discuss 2012 without putting his name at the top of the list. It's the economy stupid and American are not going to trust Palin or Huckabee nearly as much as they will trust Romney to turn this economy around. Romney has spent his entire life turning things around whereas neither Huckabee or Palin have any experience in that realm. Mitt can win a general election. His only fight will be in winning the Republican nomination. Obama's terrible economic policies will guarantee America will continue their economic woes and people will put aside any problems they have with Mitt's religion because his ability to save the economy will trump Mitt's religion (for most).
A lot of the country doesn't like her. Her appeal is limited to the farthest of the right. She represents the reason why many Republicans are jumping ship (Powell, Buckley, etc.) Most of the country thinks she's incapable of being President. Being Gov. of Alaska for 4 more years is going to change that? She has no national appeal. She's been toxic to the McCain ticket. She's officially a joke of a politician. Her career in national politics is over in two weeks. Huckabee is a much more natural representative of her base appeal, and much more attractive to people outside of that base. The problem with Huckabee is that is has wacky and naive policy prescriptions. I don't know about Romney. He seems a lot better on paper than in person. Too many people look at him and see Stereotypical, Slimy, Weezley Politician. Plus the Mormon thing will never excite the base too much. Guiliani is pointless. His only appeal was on this vague notion that he did well after 9/11. That further away that day is, the more irrelevent he becomes. Jindal maybe. Probably someone very few are thinking of right now.
I think you are missing an important piece of history. In 1992 the GOP loss was chalked up to (ala Rove) 3 million evangelicals not turning out. The GOP strategy has been to court these voters and has been the key to the Bush elections. Now back to 2008. Evangelical turnout is extremely high and pro-McCain/Palin but the GOP suffers a stinging loss across the board. The conclusion will not be that the GOP needs candidates that appeal to the base more but that they need to reach out to the middle more. The Obama-Con endorsements may not be about Obama so much as about gaining a hands up in the GOP fall out if McCain loses by a fair margin. These people are not eggheads for nothing afterall.
Watch out for John Thune. He's ambitious, telegenic, can transcend the fundy/business wings. If McConnell loses, watch him run for minority leader and be the lead spokesman for the party for the next four years.
Jeb Bush is the only Republican who can unify the party's factions. The anger inside the party will eventually be replaced by a pragmatism. But they need two years to rage against the machine first. By 2010 Jeb will look like the right alternative.
Gang, I'm here to tell you something. Ambinder has a secret. I talk to the same Dem sources he does and they are in a state of panic. Vera Baker, the woman who Obama fooled around with, is real and was indeed expedited out of the country by Michelle. Jim Corsi has tracked her down however (a project unrelated to his sojourn in Kenya) and is bringing her back to American next week. This is the October surprise: Obama's infidelity! Developing...
Yep, John Thune vs Jeb Bush in 2012. Nobody gets this yet, but it'll seem so obvious when the time comes.
Marc, I think that Huckabee and Palin will split the base/evangelical vote. Leaving a Romney to win. Romney's problem this time around was that he got outflanked from the moderate wing of the party, but I don't anticipate any really strong moderate candidate running this time around.
For all the prognisticators, just remember: It was only one year ago when everybody assumed that Giuliani was the favorite in 2008. He then proceeded to run the worst campaign strategy of any GOP candidate in the field by putting all of his eggs in the Florida basket. It's impossible to guess who will emerge for the Republicans in 2012 (and yes, I'm going on the assumption that Obama will win this year). New candidates whom we've never heard of will make headlines and give pundits and bloggers plenty of fodder in the coming years. But as for GOP candidates that we already know, if this season's election is any indication..... Romney? Don't think so. He's arguably a stronger candidate on the economy than most of his GOP rivals, but well, so much for that. He lost to McCain, for crying out loud. Palin? Please. She's become a national joke. I don't think that even the Republicans will forgive her campaign disasters that easily. Huckabee? It's possible. He did much better than most people expected. But I still think that after Bush, the country would have a hard time electing a guy who doesn't think evolution is real. I think Jindal is the GOP's best chance right now. After the success of the Obama campaign, I think the Republicans would be foolish not to consider him (multicultural, popular in Louisiana, young, outside the beltway, Rhodes Scholar). He has his own skeletons in the closet too, and he might be just as right-wing as Bush. But I think he's got a better shot than anyone previously mentioned.
Good lord, Marc. Palin is dumber than a bag of nails. That would be fixable except she doesn't have the intellectual curiosity of a tit mouse--she *almost* makes W. look like Socrates. What's more is she's PROUD of the fact that she has no intellectual ambition. All the anti-liberal elite, 'college education is for arugula eaters' may go over well with the base, but the Dems, moderate Repubs & Independents happen to like the fact that maybe someone half-way smart should be in office.
My money is on Huckabee for the nomination, and no one for the Presidency. There looks to be a nasty fight over the future of the Republican Party - not exactly establishment vs non-establishment, but rather theological conservatives vs economic conservatives. Both camps will say "we lost because McCain wasn't conservative enough" (though they have very different ideas of what that means), and both will point fingers at the establishment members of the other camp. I think Huckabee is the candidate most likely to bridge this divide. He would do it the same way (ironically) George Junior did it: Christian right credentials solid enough that he doesn't have to advertise them much, funded by donations from corporations and executives, behind a face and manner that appeals to low-information (read: don't pay much attention) moderate voters. Of course, he would be competing with Palin on one side and Romney on the other. Palin will have the fanatic ground-troops but not the money for a serious campaign, while Romney will have the reverse. That's does mean Huckabee is a lock for the nomination. Maybe Jindal or someone can out-do him at the same game, or one faction muscles out the other/ This year, the top Democratic candidates had differences only of degree and personality; this resulted in a vigorous race that actually strengthen the winner, and left a "wound" that (conventional wisdom notwithstanding) was relatively easy to heal. Meanwhile, the Republicans had much greater real differences and thus created a bigger, harder-to-fill rift; this is why McCain had to pick Palin - to reach out to the social conservatives who just plain weren't going to show up for him otherwise. That rift will be a battleground next time. The Republicans may pick their nominee based on which one limps over the finish line after an ugly war. And that may well leave them with a party that can't fully get behind its nominee and/or a nominee that no one except a hard-core Republican partisan can like. I predict that (assuming the Democrats don't do anything brutally stupid, which they occasionally do) the Republicans will be in the wilderness until they find a new unified rationale for the very existence of their party.
2012? I think you need to look to 2010 first, when Palin is up for re-election. The Dems and the Republicans in Alaska are out for blood, they want to bring her down. She has made Alaska a national joke. If this mood holds until 2010, there will be no way in hell she gets re-elected. Then she is pretty much done with. In 2012, she would get creamed in the primaries and whoever the nominee is at that point wouldn't dare to but her on the ticket. She's a sinking ship. But she won't be unemployed. I'm sure Fox News will find a spot for her. I cannot wait for the upcoming bloodbath in the GOP. Who will be left standing, the evangelical wing or the fiscal conservatives? It's going to be fun to watch.
Everybody here is assuming there will BE a Republican Party in 2012. I'm not sure that it will still be viable.
I long for the day when principled journalists will stop pretending that Palin is popular outside of her base. She is not, by any rubric whatsoever. She is causing enormous damage to the McCain campaign among independents and Reagan Democrats. But people, including Marc, seem totally unwilling to tell that story. Please, GOP, run Sarah Palin 2012. Please do.
Palin won't run... She will sit 2012 out and retool her image...like it or not Palin fans...she will partly be blamed for loss...exit polls will show independents and moderate republicans flocked to obama becuase of her...powell, adelman are windows into this sentiment also her constituency is huckabees base...consider them loaned out...sure they like her...but they love him more...his show is tops on cable 2 million viewers a night...through his pac he is active politically earning chits with elected officials crowd that didnt know him in 2008... she will see that and wait...she will become a popular two term governor...flirt with iowa and new hampshire...broaden her national appeal and be the next person on the bench... she also doesnt have to run against obama...remember her penchant for name calling will comeback to bite her in a head to head with obama...democrat field will be open in 2012 as biden wont run most likely... unsettled environment in both parties
When everything is said and done with this election, GOP strategists will point to Sarah Palin as the primary reason for McCain's inability to pull in Independent voters. She will return to Alaska, where she will face a backlash for her heavy-handed tactics and lighter-than-air political intelligence. In other words, she is toast. What the Republicans will need is a conservative Barak Obama type ... somebody able to connect with voters on a personal level, to make them feel calm during a storm. They will have to be fiscally conservative, and with some sort of track record of bi-partisanship. It will also be imperative that the GOP nominee avoids the scorched-earth campaign style of Rove/Schmidt. Obama has scored points by counterpunching, letting McCain throw the first punch; McCain brings up Ayers, Obama counters with Keating. More importantly, Obama was ready for it, ready to respond literally in moments.
good points Gus
Bobby Jindal is everything Gus describes
If the future you see for the GOP is correct, then what you are predicting is the END of the party. IF that happens ... the next question is ... What will replace it? Will the Dems split? Will Joe Lieberman and GOP moderates form a new party? Will a new party form to the LEFT of the Dems?
So what you're saying is that Obama is guaranteed a second term as the GOP doubles down on its present self-destruction? Awesome!
Palin is vastly overrated. Right now she is getting a lot of free points for being a telegenic new face who can really read a zinger off a teleprompter. Well in four years she will no longer be a new face, and people will start to wonder why it is she doesn't know anything about anything, can't speak in coherent sentences, and can't answer questions without making a talking point smoothie. The evangelical base may still love her but the base is not that big, or you'd be writing about current nominee Mike Huckabee.
Except Howard Dean never got the nomination. I actually think you will see the Republican Party move the other way - away from Palin and Huckabee. In 1992, the conservative evangelicals abandoned Bush and the party moved in that direction. Today, the establishment, coastal Republicans have abandoned the party and the party will have to move that way. Make no mistake about this, the Republican ticket is a neo-con/evangelical dream and if it gets blown out there is no way the Republicans would be dumb enough to go back to that well. Look for the in-fighting and calls to be more inclusive. It is the only way the Republican Party can survive.
Palin will be impeached or in jail by then. Though that likely won't stop the GOP from nominating her.
Christ, can't we get through 2008 before we think about 2012?
Are people serioulsy putting the possibility of Palin in 12 out there? Seriously? she is not a serious candidate. She never has been, and from the way i've seen her bunker down, she never will be. To win an election you need to convince more voters other than those in your base. Palin can't do that. She's a dangerous pick to have as VP and i honestly cannot see a the gop nominating her in '12. If they do, it will just prove that they have learned nothing from the disastrous campaign they're currently engaged in.
Dan writes: "Obama's terrible economic policies will guarantee America will continue their economic woes and people will put aside any problems they have with Mitt's religion because his ability to save the economy will trump Mitt's religion (for most)." Let's note that Dan's a big fan of the brilliant Repiglican economic policies that dug this country into the current shithole in the first place - and then consider that he doesn't know beans about what "terrible economic policies" really are.
Sam Wang over at http://election.princeton.edu/2008/10/21/state-polls-faster-than-you-think/#more-1944 says this: "At this point I am not expecting the outcome to move more than about 15 EV from the current median."(362 EV Obama) It's over ... let's talk 2012 ;-)
Craig: what exactly are you smoking?
The Republican Party will schism into the hard right wing and the moderates. The moderates will form a new party with a new branding(since the GOP brand is now bad) and attract both moderate Dems, Independents and Republicans. It will happen in 2010 and make a run in 2012. Count on it. The Republican Brand will be left to the Hard right and the fanatical base members.
An extraordinary amount of wishful thinking on here by fellow Dems/liberals. First, remember Ronald Reagan. No one -- and I mean, no one -- thought he could win a national election. All the smart people inside the beltway (particularly Republicans) thought he was a gaffe-prone, lightweight, right-wing extremist (I still think that's a true judgment, but that's a story for another time). His polling vis-a-vis Carter was lackluster until the point he won the GOP nomination. In fact, polling routinely showed that most of his support came from a fanatical and narrow base of extreme right-wingers. He wasn't supposed to be able to even come close to winning so much as the GOP nomination, until in fact he did just that. My point being: there is precedent for a politician like Palin winning a national election. So stop acting as if the mere suggestion is crazy -- it is not. Second, Palin is beloved by the conservative grassroots. Now, that's not sufficient to win a Presidential election. It's not even enough to win the Republican nomination. It does however, mean that she has the potential to run a very competitive campaign, and that she has to be seen as a top-tier candidate for 2012. There literally is no one else in the Republican party with the level of personal popularity of Sarah Palin among the Party rank-and-file. Not Huckabee, not Romney, not Jeb Bush -- hell, probably not even Schwarzenegger. In terms of money, the old, bush-pioneer model is dead. We live in the age of Obama. The only GOP politician who will be competitive in 2012 will be one capable of inspiring a small-donor base of approximately 5 million people. A President Obama will run the first billion-dollar campaign in 2012. The only one, at this point in time, with a prayer of matching that is Sarah Palin. There are huge IFs with Palin. Her relationship with the conventional-wisdom-setting press is horrible. She can only change this if she submits to very probing interviews and demonstrates more fluidity and intellectual depth than she has so far. If Palin doesn't do that, then the MSM will eventually destroy her presidential hopes. The MSM can't win an election for you but it sure can prevent you from winning, if it decides. Palin also needs to take positions on issues that are controversial within the Republican party like immigration. There's no guaranteeing that her popularity with the base remains when she actually gets in the weeds on these topics. Palin also needs to pass a viceral credibility test -- part of Palin's problem is that she doesn't look or act like a President, or even much like an executive. She needs to fix that without losing her basic appeal -- not easy. The top challengers to Palin are John Thune and Mitt Romney. I can't accurately evaluate Bobby Jindal yet. Thune has credibility with the conservative beltway elite, he is also capable of unifying "three-legged" stool. He's youthful, telegenic, and he has beltway credibility. He's a prime candidate to lead a Stop-Palin movement. Romney has a lot of credibility with the party elite and enough of the base that if Palin isn't able to get traction or if the base fractures among two or more options, Romney could win the GOP nomination in a last-man-standing sort of way.
All the talk about Bobby Jindal is amusing. Unless the entire Repiglican base dies off between now and 2012 Jindal has no more shot at being the nominee than Flavor Flav does. The base doesn't take to swarthy folks even if they have Southern accents and perform exorcisms.
The Republican party cannot move to the left. The religious right wont' stand for it, and with them, the coalition is way too small. The Democrats are building very thoroughly and rapidly. Therefore, it is doomed, probably for a generation. Not even John Thune can save them - he's the only appealing and thoughtful persona on their bench. Yet he is only getting older and doesn't set any rooms on fire.(Still, why didn't McCain pick him? A mystery). Pawlenty is similarly dull, and too centrist. Romney (the squirrel hunter), and the fundamentalist favorites (Jindal, Romney, Palin) all have no chance.
It will be really interesting to watch (as a democrat from the sidelines) Sarah Palin run against Romney, Jindal, Jeb and others. With regard to your quest on male white voters moving - they are not. It is close - just a couple of points so I think there may be some tightening but it's not big enough that every poll picks it up. Some of it may just be caught in sampling error in both directions.
What Marc is describing here is more accurately known as a "death spiral." Party loses. Next time around, an angry base chooses the (unelectable) candidate who stokes their resentments. Rinse. Repeat. Personally, I don't think the GOP is as dumb as Marc posits. Except for Palin, they've always been much more concerned than Democrats have been with putting forth a general election winner, as opposed to their favorite. Also, Mike Huckabee is not the guy to unify two halfs of the GOP (social vs. financial conservatives). Huck's an economic populist - he's the Wal-Mart Republican, writ large. Not the Chamber's favorite son. All this speculation is, in the end, pointless. Eighteen months ago we are ALL assured of a Rudy-HRC battle royale.
dry_fish, Reagan the candidate never had numbers as bad as Palin does. He never made nearly the gaffes, either. Palin has become a national joke, much like Quayle did. She will not be a player, unless she runs for the Senate, proves herself there for a decade, and tries again then. That would be her best move.
Marc, If there is anything we learned in 2006 and looks most likely for 2008 is that the electorate, as a whole, is moving left. Howard Dean became a serious front runner because he caught that early momentum of the leftward shift. John McCain is running as a moderate, and not a hard-righter. Abortion has not come up in a substantive way, neither has the federal marriage amendment, don't ask don't tell, euthanasia, etc. The country is moving away from the hard right stances on these issues because they are being reminded of the importance of economic policy. The country isn't going to be looking for a conservative from the republicans in 2012, they're going to want a moderate. Or, if their prospects look laughable to unseat Obama, they might go hard to the base a la McGovern in 1972. Palin as a pick for 2012 frontrunner status is laughable, to say the least. She will have as much leverage then as Quayle did in 2000. Huckabee will have some play, if he decides to run, because he can genuinely play up a populist message, even if his social views are hard right. At this point, all conventional names for 2012 are probably not going to be the actual frontrunners. It will be someone under the radar, IMHO.
You're assuming that Palin is going to weather the political/legal storms in Alaska if she's not elected VP, and that's not at all clear. She threw her lot in with the Personnel Board, and they have chosen a serious investigator who may very well find legal as well as ethical wrongdoing. If that is pursued it's not clear that she can breeze on by it for the nomination in 2012
Oh, is this civil war going to be a hoot! Democrats are long accustomed to squabbles, but Republicans, oh when they fight they fight mean. It will be like the movie, "There Will Be Blood." With the same ending, by the way: Before it's all over, an oil man will club a preacher to death with a bowling pin. Ha ha ha!
This makes no sense at all. If you're going to focus on pointless, premature horse race nonsense think it through, at least....The Dean campaign came from anger over Congressional Democrats' and Presidential candidates' support for the Iraq war. You think there's ten times as much anger caused by the Christopher Buckey & the Colin Powell endorsements as that? I doubt the GOP is going to blame the 2008 election loss on Christopher Buckley & Colin Powell as opposed to say, George W. Bush, John McCain, & Sarah Palin. That said, I'm guessing a base-friendly candidate does well, because they just have far more power in the party than anti-war liberals do in the Democratic party & I do not expect the GOP to panic & vote on "electability" the way the Democrats tend to in primaries.
Also (I forgot to mention this is my earlier post): Jindal is not going to run for president unless he thinks he has a chance. I speculate that McCain's campaign really wanted him to run with McCain this year, but Jindal publicly stated he didn't want a veep spot with McCain. Why? I think he didn't want to jump on what he saw as a sinking ship. If you're on a ticket that loses, it's not often that you can come back a second time and win (Nixon be damned). Jindal also had a cover for this because he wasn't governor for that long, so it allowed it to blame it on his focus on LA, which was probably a contributing factor (he wants to bolster his record). If he's successful in LA, there's no reason why he wouldn't run in 2012. But I think he will honestly only toss his hat into the ring if it looks like Obama can be unseated. Otherwise he will continue to be governor until 2016 (are LA governors term limited) and strike then.
Maybe... but ultimately seems like a stretch. More likely, I think, is that Palin has been rendered totally discredited and irrelevant for 2012. She's been mocked mercilessly and we cannot assume she can learn anything substantial about national and international affairs to actually overturn the perception of her dolt-like performances in 2008. (Like the "when Putin rears his head..." nonsense.) Not to mention the fact that Tina Fey's lasting impression of her has tremendous staying power. Like Dana Carvey's "thousand points of light" Bush 41 mocking has stayed with us. And I can't keep Amy Poehler's Palin rap out of my head! There is simply not enough of the GOP base to sustain a primary run for her. Plus, if she were an actual presidential candidate, she'd have to answer A LOT MORE questions than she does now. She'd have to face the media -- a lot. And without the "filter" of John McCain.
If white men are moving significantly to Sen. McCain, as seen in a lot of the IVR polls and a few phone polls (PPP in FL, Rasmussen Nat'l Tracking, Morning Call Tracking in PA, FoxNews/Rasmussen Tracking in FL), why have most of the national tracking polls failed to pick up the movement? Because you're an idiot, Marc, that's why.
David Mercanus: I agree. There is no way she runs in 2012 -- she needs to at least learn the language (if not actually learn some substance) required to run a serious national campaign, and the best way to do that is for her to run for Senate and serve a term or two.
If Jindal can make it 2 terms as LA Gov. with no scandals or indictments, he SHOULD be the GOP nominee in 2016. but, color me skeptical if I dont believe the GOP can get past his skin color.
Could Palin run in '12? Yes...if her legal problems in Alaska don't do her in. Could she win the nomination? It depends, to an enormous amount, on who else is running. Unless she manages to be the only religious/social reactionary running, probably not. Most likely, someone relatively moderate will sneak thru because the religious/social conservative vote gets split between too many would-be nominees. Could Palin win, if she somehow managed to get the nomination? Only if world events, totally unforeseen and outside anyone's control, occur with timing which leaves Obama with the Democratic nomination but totally trashed. And it would have to be seriously catastrophic, even then. So, it's not totally impossible. But definitely not the way to bet.
I think Marc makes an interesting point about the anti-establishmet feelings if the Republicans were to lose this election. I think that both Huckabee and Palin will run in 2012 and they will give voice to the anti-establishment mood in the party. But I think they will split the social conservative vote allowing Romney to garner enough support from the various factions to have a winning coalition. This sort of happend in the 2008 Republican race with Huckabee, Mccain and Romney.
Huck is the best bet. He was AGAINST the bailout. He has an hour long every week that reaches 3 million people to get his message out. Where is Mitt Romney? He dissappeared. You think he would have spoken up durring the economic crisis since he is such an expert but he was afraid to stand for something that may hurt his image. Sheesh! If Huck were running against Obama he would wipe the floor and ring out the rag. Huck has no Washington connections and reminds people of Joe the Plumber rather than Joe the Senator.
I pray that Palin is their nominee in 2012.
I think Huckabee is likeable--and he has certain populist leanings, I hear, which would make him better able to do the sort of bailing out that McCain & Co are having trouble with. For someone like McCain or Bush, it's only natural that you'd help the guys in big business and ignore everyone else. This gives Huckabee some room: he could say, "Look, I more than any of the other candidates for the GOP nomination in 2008 would have been willing to bail out Main Street and help the middle class--and I can assure you, I can do this better than the Democrats have been doing it!" Of course this is assuming that he can find backers, and then advisors, on the same page. I think that the message Huck got overwhelmingly from 2008 was DO NOT BE POPULIST, and it's hard for me to imagine many in the current galaxy of GOP stars honestly really and truly interested in helping out those who make under $250K/yr.
But really, this is all assuming that 2012 will be Huckabee against maybe Palin, Jindal, Pawlenty. What's to say that we won't see McCain and Giuliani running again? Jeb Bush? ;)
How about let's just not think about 2012 right now. 4 years ago (1 year ago too really) it was assumed Hillary Clinton would be the 2008 Democratic nominee. Look how good that prediction turned out. Many things will happen in the next 4 years that will render any predictions made now about who will even run for the GOP nomination moot. Maybe Jindal will be the GOP's Obama. Maybe somebody even more obscure but more competent than Palin will excite the base and the media and sweep to the nomination. Maybe the party will break in 2 and there will be a rump GOP party with somebody like Mitt Romney as its nominee and a Christian conservative party with Palin, Huckabee, or some other strong social conservative. We just don't know and it's ridiculous to speculate when this year's election still isn't even over.
Palin has been surprisingly awesome, McCain stinks, Obama really REALLY stinks. Heaven help us.
If gop nominates a wingnut like Palin or Huckabee, they should forget about my vote. I want someone from the mainstream like Crist. Though I am a conservative I will never ever vote for a republican from the rightwing of the party. Both Palin and Huckabee are extreme right. I voted for Rudy in this years primary.
Marc, when are you going to blog about how your 2012 favorite Palin is a political con-artist and not a a maverick? AP has this bombshell.. AP INVESTIGATION: Palin children traveled on state news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081021/ap_on_el_pr/palin_family_travel ANCHORAGE, Alaska – Gov. Sarah Palin charged the state for her children to travel with her, including to events where they were not invited, and later amended expense reports to specify that they were on official business. The charges included costs for hotel and commercial flights for three daughters to join Palin to watch their father in a snowmobile race, and a trip to New York, where the governor attended a five-hour conference and stayed with 17-year-old Bristol for five days and four nights in a luxury hotel. In all, Palin has charged the state $21,012 for her three daughters' 64 one-way and 12 round-trip commercial flights since she took office in December 2006. In some other cases, she has charged the state for hotel rooms for the girls. Alaska law does not specifically address expenses for a governor's children. The law allows for payment of expenses for anyone conducting official state business. As governor, Palin justified having the state pay for the travel of her daughters — Bristol, 17; Willow, 14; and Piper, 7 — by noting on travel forms that the girls had been invited to attend or participate in events on the governor's schedule. But some organizers of these events said they were surprised when the Palin children showed up uninvited, or said they agreed to a request by the governor to allow the children to attend.
anne writes: "If Huck were running against Obama he would wipe the floor and ring out the rag. " That's funny. McCain whipped Huckabee's creationist ass with ease. Obama is kicking McCain's green teeth out, again with ease. Most Americans now realize that the world is too complicated to take a chance on some bible-thumping fundamentalist nitwit as president. We have one now, and he's been a disaster. We don't need another snakehandling maniac.
"The base seems to love her."
All we can do now is speculate, but if I had to guess I would say that Romney is out. He came out in support of the 700 billion dollar bailout - political suicide. On top of that, he'll have the same problems he had last time around, namely, convincing people that he really is a fiscal and social conservative. His previous support of abortion, compounded with his socialist Massachusetts health care system will definitely give him serious problems in 2012.
I was watching Romney's national show the other night...wait...it was the guy from Arkansas I think...you know...darn it all, who am I thinking of? I think it's on TWICE on the weekend (wow, must be a heck of a show). Man o' man, who is that guy?... it's right on the tip of my...I KNOW NOW!!! I think it's called...JINDAL!...No...come on brain, THINK! Can someone help me out?
meh. You can't sell a foundered horse. If McCain loses, Palin is done.
Jindal is already planning his Iowa speeches. In fact Newt is nothing that a fullback for him.
Huckabee can become to elite or lazy (Kunich anyone) on fox, plus there can be another fresh southern. Romney has to come as the map advatange I think (He can let them go at it on Iowa and take NH easy. Keep the Western Momron states and add the NE states he for some reason gave to McCain.) Crist will run as the Moderate and I think have the chance to win sort of like McCain (FL, CA, Northeast of Romney fades.). Pawtley and John Thurne have to won the win Iowa Stargery. Even there what will happen to them if they do. Pawtlney likely will have McCain NH team so perhaps he can do something, but it could be though moving for Thurne. Stanford and Perry all the Southerns not name Jindal likely to run. Perry is a joke and likely will be out after Iowa straw Poll. Stanford could make S.C meanless but will he stay into then and risk make the State a non factor if he has not catch on by then? Jindal: He brings many things for him. Generation changed, Policy Wonk (so you know he have Ideas to run on), Smart and Cutural Conservation (Can apppeal to Northern VA without scary away "Real VA" and Visa Versa). Will likely have talk radio support (even above Palin) in most cases. Also if he is seen as a good Governor in LA will turn the page on Katina. The Downside is can he run for Governor in 11 and president at the same time?
I disagree with you totally Marc. The Base loves Palin right now, because (a) they're not paying attention to what her detractors are saying, and (b) McCain hasn't lost yet. In 2012, when The Base has had 4 years' exposure to the conventional wisdom that McCain's choice of Palin was one of the major reasons he lost the campaign, and that fact has finally sunk in, they'll feel vastly different about Sarah Palin.
Still thinking about that new, totally-awesome TV show...the guy was smart, kind, had great ideas, and funny! The guy talked about 12 trillion dollars that could go into U.S. banks from offshore in MONTHS, without the bank interest tax, that is, which is double-taxation. WOW, this would stimulate the market, savings, risk-taking, higher interest on your savings, you name it! The U.S. would be the biggest tax haven in the WORLD! Sounds like that would pretty much negate any need for a bailout, don't you? What was that guy's name? That guy really oughta run for president or somethin'...
There's some solid discussion up above on both sides of the "does Palin have a national political future" divide. Just two additional points: (1) Republicans have a much different historical track record with repect to their treatment of losing candidates than do Democrats. Republicans, in this sense, are pro-recycling, while Dems are the opposite. In 1976, Bob Dole was the Republican VP nominee on a losing ticket with Gerald Ford. According to conventional wisdom, Bob Dole was a drag on the ticket. He was able to make serious presidential runs in 1980, 1988, and 1996 doing progressively better each time. Dole didn't have nearly the level of natural talent that Palin has. In fact, with the exception of George W. Bush, every GOP nominee since Goldwater has lost a previous campaign for President or Vice President. Losing a national election is not prima facie disqualifier for Republicans in the same way it is for Democrats. For that reason alone, it is very difficult to assume that Palin is "done" post-2008. (2) On a scale of 1 to 10, Republicans are at "2" in terms of how much they care what the media elite or Democrats think of who they nominate. In fact, the more criticism from the press, the more they are likely to embrace a candidate. Democrats tend to be quite the opposite in terms of how they factor press criticism into their evaluation of candidates. Press-led (different from CW set by party insiders) conventional wisdom is not very influential in Republican primaries.
Watch this video and tell me ANY republican candidate that can get a reception like this? Hell, even Obama doesn't get this kind of reaction. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ubL-n-hpMm4 The liberals here don't know jack about how republicans nominate their candidates. The nomination is Palin's in 2012 if she wants it. The republican base doesn't give a rat's ass about what liberal democrats or inside the beltway losers like peggy noonan or mike murphy think. The bigger question is whether Palin will choose to run in 2012. She'll only run if she thinks Obama is beatable, otherwise there's no point. She'll probably be better off serving two terms as governor of Alaska and making a major effort to brush up on domestic and foreign policy for a 2016 run which would be open. Biden would be older than McCain and won't run. She'll only be 52 in 2016. But then again, if Obama took that advice he may never have been president. Sometimes you got to strike while the iron is hot and throw caution to the wind. 2012 may be Palin's one chance.
I have enough regard for republicans that I think that once they get a little separation from the emotion of this election, they will come to understand how close we came to having a completely incompetent and unprepared a heartbeat away from the presidency. Obviously, this was going to be a tough year for any Republican, and frankly, even though he spent some of the late summer and early fall ahead, McCain was always a long shot. But how can you look at the movement in the polls over the last six weeks, as the independents have flocked away from McCain because this pick shows him deeply unconcerned about governing competently, and think that the Republican party will turn around and nominate someone else who is completely unconcerned about governing competently? I'm sorry. I just don't see it. Not to mention that the main thing that she has going for her is that she is gorgeous. Will that still be the case in eight years? Will Lowry's knees still buckle when she is in her 50's? Frankly, I don't care who the republican candidates will be in 2012. But I would be shocked beyond belief if Palin is even in the conversation. She won't make it to 2009 with a positive net favorable, and given her scandalous performance thus far as governor, it is tough to imagine opponents would have much trouble tearing her apart. John Cornyn has about as good a chance as Palin to be the nominee.
MaverickMyAss what bombshell ? This AP story is over a month old and I have noticed a disturbing pattern by the MSM recycling any negative information over and over to discredit McCain-Palin. As an independent, I am starting to wonder if the Republicans are right about the bias reporting against McCain-Palin and favorable reporting for Obama-Biden by the MSM. I just hope that Obama is as advertised or this country is in big trouble. Palin Billed State for Nights Spent at Home http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/09/08/AR2008090803088.html By James V. Grimaldi and Karl Vick ANCHORAGE, Sept. 8 -- Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin has billed taxpayers for 312 nights spent in her own home during her first 19 months in office, charging a "per diem" allowance intended to cover meals and incidental expenses while traveling on state business. The governor also has charged the state for travel expenses to take her children on official out-of-town missions. And her husband, Todd, has billed the state for expenses and a daily allowance for trips he makes on official business for his wife. Palin, who earns $125,000 a year, claimed and received $16,951 as her allowance, which officials say was permitted because her official "duty station" is Juneau, according to an analysis of her travel documents by The Washington Post. The governor's daughters and husband charged the state $43,490 to travel, and many of the trips were between their house in Wasilla and Juneau, the capital city 600 miles away, the documents show. Gubernatorial spokeswoman Sharon Leighow said Monday that Palin's expenses are not unusual and that, under state policy, the first family could have claimed per diem expenses for each child taken on official business but has not done so.
Anne, are you serious? A talk show by Huckabee suggests he is playing a serious role for the republican party, and hence qualified in 2012? Did his name even surface as a 2012 contender? Was he much of a contributor to McCain following McCain's nomination? He's a folksy bigot with a nice smile and smooth delivery, hiding behind his Christian faith.
If Palin should somehow manage to gain the Republican Party nomination, which would just be a sad sad reflection on the Party, I suspect that if she tried to run against incumbent President Barack Obama (again) she would get destroyed and demolished. Run over like a little puppy crossing the street. It would be tragic to witness. I have just enough faith in the Republican party to believe that it will see that this narrow, jingoistic, christianist culture wars base with an trickle-down economics message is way too small a coalition and way too outdated a message to do anything other than get mauled. It may just have to confront the CW that this is "a center-right" country. If it fails to do so, God help the Republican Party in the next election.
The Mittster certainly comes across as too phony, but will the Repubs have buyer's remorse (if they lose this year)? Will they say "if only we'd nominated him..." He, after all, is the only guy the Repubs had who could've weathered the economic storm if he was the nominee. (*Maybe* Giuliani, but I think Giuliani's role is reduced to giving angryman keynote addresses.)
Obama claims he cares about poor blacks, but a Boston Globe report exposed how for eight years Obama supported slum projects in Chicago. Poor blacks living in rat and roach infested apartments condemned Obama for not caring about them. Cynthia Ashley, a fourteen-year resident said: "No one should have to live like this, and no one did anything about it." Anthony Frizzell a twenty-year resident said: "In the winter I can feel the cold air coming through the walls and the sockets." Sharee Jones who has lived for years with the rats said: "You could hear them under the floor and in the walls, and they didn't do nothing about it." Paul Johnson who helped organize a protest against Obama said: "Of course he knew. He just didn't care." Showing he just didn't care, Obama wrote letters on Illinois Senate letterhead supporting government loans for slum projects. Obama coauthored the Illinois law that gave tax breaks to his slum lord friends, including now convicted felon Tony Rezko who helped Obama buy a million-dollar house. As a US Senator, Obama worked to increase federal subsidies for his slum lord pals who donated more than $175,000 to Obama's campaigns with Rezko raising another $200,000. While running for president, Obama is promising to create a fund that gives his slum lord buddies $500 million a year. This is outrageous. Learn the truth
I don't understand all this talk of Fiscal vs. Social conservatives in 2012. Fiscal and social conservatism are not incompatible entities. The GOP nominee will be whoever is able to convince the base that they are both. I think the real issue will be neo-cons vs. paleo-cons. The neo-cons face a backlash due to their aggressive foreign policy getting us into an unpopular war, and their movement towards big government. If we're lucky, the neo-cons won't even show up, and it won't be a battle.
Palin, although she has had a ruff ride, has actually got off quite lightly. For very sensible reasons the Obama campaign has not really gone after her. Lets be honest here and say that if they had wanted to they had a wealth of material to hit her with. In a Republican primary there is a 0% chance that she will get such soft treatment from her opponents....after all we are talking about Republicans here! I think her bubble will have burst before she gets that far, but if she does then she's going to need one hell of a good campaign manager behind her. I rate her chances of surviving the primary at 3.26%.
Neither party can win with only its most hardcore base -- Bush wouldn't have won even in 2004 if he only had the most hardcore nut cases. But Palin will only have the nuts -- she's clearly unable even to form clear sentences, much less think deeply about *any* issue. And she's scared of the press, since they show up her ignorance all too well. My prediction -- her political future is toast. She'll go back to Alaska and win reelection as the best dressed Governor of Alaska. You betcha.
This is what happens when my party, the Republican party narrows and becomes the party of white trash, redneck racists with the education level of 6th graders.
Palin is a rope in a game of GOP tug-o-war. She doesn't realize she is getting played. The blame is being leveled at her for the loss. Was her choice to satisfy a disfunctional base and does she therefore discredit the Christianist block from Eisenhower, East Coast Republicans or was this McCain the Impulsive making an ill informed decision? She is an albatross around the party's neck. In the end, the blame will not be with the politicians but with Schmidt, Davis, and Kristol for getting involved or in the way. Jindal won't jeopardize his potential unless BO fails in some major way. Jindal in 16. Mark Sanford or Mitt in 12. The GOP is in a chrysalis: what they emerge as is still suspect.
In Palin you are seeing the Republican nominee for 2012. Make no mistake.
Dean's phoenix was not to run again for the presidency, but the rebirth of the Democratic party. With Obama having firmly taken its control, Dean may ride into the sunset. Palin, on the other hand, will go a different direction. After playing in the big time, its hard to see her going back to being the guv of AK. Ultimately, she has her rifle sights on the top spot for 2012. In the meantime, she has some cleanup to do of this nasty mess that is being uncovered back home. She'll likely get a few wrist slaps, then find something to keep her in the national limelight. I'm thinking talk radio as a female Rush Limbaugh.
Palin has become a national joke. If she decides to run in 2012, the first thing anyone will do is pull out the quotes from the writers have been saying the past few months, along with her wonderful interview quotes that show she doesn't know squat. It's doubtful that she can raise the funds to get very far, given that she appeals to the "base" and they're not the ones with big bigs who can finance a campaign. She will never rise above the support of the 30% dead-enders, so if she wants to run it will be a waste of time for the republicans and good comedy for the rest of us. Her political career outside of Alaska (and possibly inside) is over.
Palin will be back. However, like Nixon, you will see something new, the "New Palin". Palin isn't as stupid as you people think she is. She'll survive whatever the Dems throw at her in Alaska, be a reasonably successful Governor, take a pass on 2012, and come back as a much more pragmatic, much less doctrinaire, much more Jindal-like Palin. That's what none of you are getting. She'll remake herself as an experienced, two-term Governor, Jeb-in-a-skirt. By 2016, she'll have been the toast of the chicken dinner circuit and the National Governor's Association. I also suspect, with Hillary safely out of the way, she'll be the odds-on favorite to be the First Woman President. She sees this, too. Our party will be very unified and extremly hungry by 2016. We'll have taken all the lessons taught to us by Obama and Axelrod and improved on their model. Raising a billion dollars over the internet for Palin during the 2016 cycle will be child's play for her. She'll stand by in 2012 as Mitt Romney gets hammered by Obama in 2012. A key to watch for the future is the relationship she builds with Grover Norquit's Wednesday Group in the coming years in Exile. Guarantee you she'll be on the chicken dinner circuit for 2010, however. Palin/Jindal 2016, you heard it here first. It will win, too. None of you can believe this because you are still in shock from Nixon winning in 1968.
section9 sez: "That's what none of you are getting. She'll remake herself as an experienced, two-term Governor, Jeb-in-a-skirt." If someone reaches the age of 44 and still cannot form complete sentences and cannot speak coherently about worldly topics, they're not going to make any meaningful change in themselves. She has no intellectual curiosity, which similar to real leadership abilities, is something that is innate in a person. She can't remake herself into something she is not. If she was in her 20's that might be possible, but at 44 she's pretty much what she's going to be for the rest of her life. Funny you compare her to Nixon, talk about apples and oranges. Nixon was intelligent.
Palin in 2012! That would mean the GOP really has a deathwish. They might not have other "charismatic" candidates in the wings but remember she came out of nowhere. So did Obama for that matter. The problem with Palin is her innate inability to capitalize on this headline moment that an improbable fate has handed her. Since her nomination as a Vice Presidential candidate she still has not read and grasped the job description in The Constitution! It's not a long or complicated description, the job is basically presiding, tie breaking, and standing in the wings. Two weeks before the election Palin still can't talk about what a VIce President does. She seems to have rampant self-interest, so why can't she even cover her a**? The more she talks, the more people say "What?". She's had an incredible amount of coaching without much improvement and, odds are, she's never going to improve. The governorship was a big stretch. Gotta love Alaska! But most of America is saying "Are you kidding me?". I know I am.
The fate of Sarah Palin rests with Barack Obama. If he turns out to be another Jimmy Carter, a disaster as a president, Sarah Palin has an excellent chance of becoming the first woman president in 2012--assuming that this country is ready for a woman president. If Obama turns out to be an effective and popular president, it really does not matter what the Republicans do in 2012. By the way, it is always humorous to hear Republicans trying to make sense of what happens in the Democratic party and to hear Democrats trying to make sense of what happens in the Republican party.
There is no chance that Palin is still a viable candidate in 2012, or even likely by 2016. Assuming she survives the investigations that are ongoing in Alaska, she would be best off running for the Senate and staying there for a couple terms. She is at present totally clueless about both foreign and domestic policy and does not even know what the job description for Vice President is as stated in the Constitution. It's a pity that California governor Schwarzenegger cannot run due to the fact he was not born here in the US, he would be the most viable candidate on the Republican side, in my view. I don't see Huckabee, Romney or Jindal (although I don't know much of anything about him really) being viable candidates. So, I don't know who the Republicans will pick. Probably some unknown that has not come on the scene as of yet.
A little background. I've lived in FL under Jeb Bush, and in MA under Romney, and I'm a registered Democrat, just a inch or two left of center. After living in Florida for two years and working with 90% Republicans I have come to appreciate them more than ever. With that said, here are my observations that I think may help Republicans. McCain can still win this. It's technically possible is all I'm saying. I have little faith in polls, I tend to examine these things based on judgment and then experience. I've spent serious time in FL and NH, So, I predict McCain will win both FL and NH. If McCain wins the election, It will be for one term, and the next president will be a female, but you'll never hear from Palin again. If Obama wins, McCain will rightly shoulder the blame and Palin's done for at least a generation. McCain could have easily won this election, because he's the only Republican I would have been fine with winning if he had been the nominee in 2000, 2004, or 2008 (if Obama or Clinton lost, and Huckabee was VP). I haven't had a Democrat McCain really screwed up in picking Palin. It seemed to only deepen the cancer that is his campaign. Unfortunately, he sold out who he really was for the sake of wining. I'll really feel bad for him if he doesn't win. Huckabee was the best choice, and Ronmey a distant (distant) second. On paper, those were his best choices. Now assuming Obama wins, for 2012 I would avoid Palin and Jeb Bush. Jeb was an OK governor of Florida, but unfortunately the Bush moniker is a bit tarnished. Fortunately, or unfortunately, the GOP as we knew it before 2007 is no more. It'll either ceed its membership into sub-factions or make room for a bigger cut for the other minor parties. As for Palin *sigh* I was hoping for SO much more. I really was I kept waiting for it...Da Thrilla From Wasilla! But, the bad news is that whether McCain wins or not, his pick of Palin says more of his lack of judgment that anything else. With that said. The republicans best bet for 2012 or 2016 will be either Huckabee/Jindal, or Mysterious-SuperCompentent-GOP-female/Huckabee
Romney is unelectable. I think Huckabee/Palin would be the smart choice for the GOP in 2012 - they can’t win without running on a religious and socially conservative platform. Low tax just isn’t enough.
Okay I have thought about this for a while. I fully support Barack Obama obviously. So in this fashion, I want to really strategize for him in my own head. I have really thought about this. The Republican party is weak. They have resorted to name calling in at a time Americans are worrying about their immediate future. They are political toast in 2008. But what about 2012??? Who is respected so high and above other politicians that Democrats, Republicans alike would flock to them??? The Republican base cannot run another crazy conservative Sundance kid against Obama's cool, savvy, calm and collected Butch Cassidy. The Republican flank has to get their respect and dignity back. I mean haha, I don't want them to, but I am a strategic thinker. If I was going to run any candidate against Obama, the one person that could beat him HANDS DOWN, is the person that just endorsed him: COLIN POWEL. Colin Powel is respected and beloved by so many people Republican and Democrat. People could call me crazy seeing how he just endorsed Obama, but powel could just use this to say "I endorsed President Obama, at a time when I thought the country was on the wrong track. My beloved party was resorting to infighting and namecalling to win an election. That is not honorable. I made a non biased decision primarily on the fact that I was scared for this country. You can bet you won't see that from my campaign, and now that I have my chance to speak, I am not always going to agree with my party 100%. I endorse myself now, because I know I would do a better job" Something like that would knock Obama and the DNC's argument right off the table. I am probably wrong though, the RNC will run some crazy conservative goof who only speaks for a portion of the country, and ultimately lose in 2012. That situation would give them a win, and you all know it. So....... HUCKABEE / PALIN 2008!!!!!!!!! ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!
Who gives a rats ass about somones faith...that is a PRIVATE matter and always should be...Huckabee crooses party lines because of his honesty and guts...........
Huckabee does have guts and had to fight against the establishment GOP thru the primaries. Conservative talk radio crucified him daily and he had little money. Yet he still came in number two because his honesty and integrity come from within and grab his audience. On top of that quality he is quick witted and funny. Add to that being a good rock and roll bass player and that would be why Fox has invested heavily in a TV show for him in prime time. You must remember in the next election he will not be fighting against Fox news because they do not eat their own. He will have an instant army of previous backers in the millions and money will not be a stone around his neck because he has already proven he can run an effective campaign. It was just announced by fairtax.org that they are thrilled to be forming an even closer relationship with Gov Huckabee and expect to see more about the Fair Tax on his show and on radio and in his new book. Another large and growing army of supporters.
Obama's presidency will be worst than Carter's. Sarah Palin will make huge history in 2012, some 90 years after women obtained the right to vote in this country as the first woman ever nominated to the presidency and winning. She will have a Hispanic male running mate and will win the presidency with a Reagan landslide!
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Huckabee and Palin? Are you kidding me? Palin has no value in expanding the Republican party concept of the Big Tent (if that even exists anymore). Her appeal among conservatives is even limited. Plus, every other running mate who has failed to win the WH has ended up not playing a major role in the party in the years after defeat. In 2012 look for Mitt Romney and Bobby Jindal to rescue our party.
Posted by Ramon Valdez | October 21, 2008 2:45 PM