Tonights's Debate Explained In Three Short Bulletpoints

1. In an election season where excitement for the unknown has replaced fear of the unknown, John McCain has a decision to make. Either he can try to reverse the collective valence of the nation -- that is, scare the pants off of everybody, or he can try to replace the object of the excitement. Decisions about Obama's character -- who the guy is -- have hardened, and not in a good way for McCain. McCain et. al. asked "Who Is This Guy?" Debate viewers saw a charming, calming nerd, not a dangerous, unknown, fussy Chicago pol. Or whatever. You can't force people to believe something that doesn't seem to be there.

2. Divided government is a pragmatic argument, and one that McCain is uniquely positioned to make here, one that intuitively should work among independents, although the evidence is equivocal.  Vote McCain as a check on the government-hungry, power-mad liberals.  McCain can tick through a list of ways in which he's already served as a one-man check on Republicans, more so than Democrats, at times. Unfortunately, McCain has damaged his standing in the past few weeks, as voters perceive his candidacy to be more the divisive of the two. (Maybe this isn't fair, but it is what it is.)  So there'll be a dissonance at work as McCain seeks the middle ground.

3. Watch, again, to see if you can pick up McCain's contempt for Obama. Its been obvious during the first two debates, and it provokes curiosity... independent voters who support McCain like Obama.... so McCain's moodiness is very jarring. The media will pick up on it, they'll communicate it to viewers, and it will trickle down. He has to convey genuine respect for Obama unless he has none, in which case he ought to just admit that the prospect of an Obama presidency angers him. Obama might hold similar contempt for McCain, but he hides it well.

BONUS:

Will moderator Bob Scheiffer feel an obligation to be extra tough on the frontrunner? (I have no inside info any which way, I should say by way of self-protection..)  If so, is that fair?