Marc Ambinder: November 2008 Archives

Four years from now

As Barack Obama prepares for his third press conference in as many days, it is still remarkable even as we head into the holidays to think that just four years ago, the president-elect was a senator-elect, heading from Springfield to the Senate. Yes, it's become trite, but what a difference four years makes.

In that spirit it's interesting to think about 2012, and how our earliest of early senses of the Republican field might change. How some of the early contenders make use of their four years may go a long way to determining the next standard bearer. We already know Romney vs. Huckabee battle will simmer at Lincoln-Reagan dinners and book signings across the country. And one gets the sense that Gov. Sarah Palin will never fade away (I can see Wasilla from my house - on my TV at least). Two other Republicans face some interesting decisions, though, as they consider their future.

Gov. Bobby Jindal already tested the waters in Iowa this week. He won office easily in 2007 in a state still reeling from Hurricane Katrina, and with a state legislature filled with newcomers thanks to term limits, he has been able to advance many conservative causes and earn kudos from across the GOP spectrum. Jindal can very easily bury himself in the work of his office, even as he jets off to Des Moines and Manchester when the occasion warrants. But he will face a tough decision in 2011, when he must decide simultaneously whether to run for re-election at the same time he'd have to begin the heavy lifting of a presidential campaign. Could he contest his re-election and a straw poll at the same time? Does he bet his future on 2012 and forsake another term, or does he take the chance that 2016 might be a better opportunity?

Gov. Tim Pawlenty was even higher on the McCain veep list, with some news organizations convinced as little as one day before the announcement that he was the pick. He took some interesting, albeit subtle shots at Palin at this month's RGA gathering, and has been accepting many booking requests on cable news. He, like Jindal, faces a tough decision about re-election, but with the election in 2010, he would have an easier time pivoting from one campaign to another. The real question is, with two terms already under his belt, is three really a charm? He has yet to top 50 percent in a statewide race, and state Democrats would certainly try to make trouble for him again, even if there's no obvious challenger now. Riding off into the sunset as a successful Republican governor in a state that almost, and still may have a Senator Al Franken makes for some good talking points in Nashua. And unlike Mitt Romney, he'd have more than one term to brag about.

In the end, it's where Obama's presidency stands after two and a half years that will have the greatest impact on the Republican field. But we'll be keeping an eye on these and other contenders as they at least position themselves for a challenge.

-Mike Memoli

Is Clinton barred from State job?

Pete Williams of NBC raised the question on MSNBC this afternoon: Is Hillary Clinton barred by the Constitution from accepting the post of secretary of state?

Article One, Section Six of the U.S. Constitution says:

No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time; and no Person holding any Office under the United States, shall be a Member of either House during his Continuance in Office.

Essentially, you cannot take a job if the salary was increased during your current congressional term. And the salary for cabinet officials has gone up in the past year. Even if it is lowered back down, constitutional scholars say that may not be enough to fix the problem.

The question is whether this would be an issue at confirmation - if Clinton is nominated to the post - and who would raise it. Senators traditionally grant their colleagues some deference and it could be considered politics at its worst if Republicans try to block her nomination with this argument. But senators may be loathe to vote for something scholars tell them is unconstitutional.

That being said, this development may make Obama, or Clinton, think twice about the appointment.

-Matthew Berger

A sign of the times...

Lunching with a friend today, he raised an interesting question about Obama's press conference today. When was the last time we saw a deputy director of the Office of Management and Budget announced by an incoming administration at a press conference? And before the naming of the secretary of state?

-Matthew Berger

Ted Kaufman gets Biden's seat

Delaware's governor picked Biden aide Ted Kaufman to fill the next vice president's seat in the Senate, per the News Journal. He's Biden's longtime aide, former chief of staff and was a senior advisor to his presidential and vice presidential bids. He'll be sworn in mid-January, after Biden takes the seat for the beginning of his seventh term on Jan. 6.

Let the questions about Beau Biden in 2010 begin. And it means there will be a fun photo op when Dick Cheney swears in Biden for his new Senate term.

-Matthew Berger and Mike Memoli

The next Delaware senator

Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner (D) "will make an announcement regarding the U.S. Senate seat to be vacated by Vice President-elect Joe Biden," her office announced today.

At this stage it's unclear whether she plans to announce who will replace Biden, or simply a timetable for a decision. There are so many unanswered questions about the situation, led of course by speculation over whom would be named.

Another revolves around when Biden plans to resign. During the campaign, he was apparently only asked once about the subject, and told a local Missouri TV station he would resign only shortly before taking the oath of office as VP.

Some have suggested Biden should resign sooner to allow his replacement the chance to get a leg up on seniority over other new senators. But even this is murky, given the fact that Biden was re-elected to a new term that would begin Jan. 6. A historian at the Senate says an appointee may have to be re-appointed if Biden resigned sooner rather than later.

"Since the appointment would cover two separate terms, ending and beginning on January 3, 2009, it is possible that an appointment would have to be made for the remainder of this term, and another for the term beginning on January 3 (the constitutional beginning of the term), which would then go until the next general election," said Senate historian Betty Koen, who cautioned that the guidelines on Delaware law "are not specific enough to answer this question."

The Wilmington News Journal runs down the latest list of names rumored to be in line for an appointment. What's interesting about Minner making an announcement today is that it may signal Biden is, in fact, planning to let the outgoing governor appoint his replacement, not Gov.-elect Jack Markell, who'd make the decision if Biden waits to resign until Jan. 20.

Biden and Minner are close, and she would be more likely to make a placeholder appointment if Biden hopes to see his son, state AG Beau Biden, eventually run in the special election (he's ruled out an appointment now, which was a given since he's now in Iraq). Markell was not the chosen candidate of the state Democratic establishment, and I've heard some speculation that he'd be less inclined to make an appointment that would transparently set the stage for the younger Biden to run, especially since that appointment would be one of his first actions as governor (though I suspect both would be deferential to Biden in the end).

Looming largest has been outgoing Lt. Gov. John Carney, who Minner had endorsed in last year's gubernatorial primary. "Send JC to DC" buttons were spotted at Return Day, the state's traditional post-election political affair, where Biden appeared, signaling Carney is eager for the appointment. Whether he wants it to be a temporary gig, however, is unclear.

Will update more once we hear from Minner at 2:30 pm.

-Mike Memoli

Palin's not going anywhere...

Her Thanksgiving turkey pardoning fiasco aside, Gov. Sarah Palin doesn't seem to be going anywhere. And she has her supporters. Just look at this new ad, paid for by Our Country Deserves Better, a conservative political action committee.

PAC spokesman Sal Russo said they have received $2 million in donations for the ads, which will start running tomorrow in Alaska and will include a national buy. "We wanted to give Sarah Palin the reassurance that despite the critics, Americans by and large appreciated her service and want her to continue to be a voice."

He said there was some "back and forth" about whether the political ad would air on the television networks. He said it would air on cable news outlets. In Alaska, the ad is airing in primetime Wednesday.

-Matthew Berger

Obama punting on gays in the military repeal

The Washington Times reports the Obama administration may wait until at least 2010 before pushing through Congress an end to the military's "don't ask, don't tell" policy towards gays and lesbians.

While Obama campaigned to the gay community on a repeal - which would allow gays and lesbians to serve freely - it is not surprising that he is placing the issue on the backburner. It has gained public support in recent years among both the general public (75 percent supported gays in the military in a July Washington Post-ABC News poll) and military brass (more than 100 retired generals and admirals called for the repeal last week). It would likely pass Congress as well. But it is not where Obama would like to use his political capitol right now.

For one, the LGBT community is at a period of weakness, coming off losses in California and Florida on propositions to outlaw gay marriage. By focusing initially on an issue prominent in the LGBT community, Obama would be essentially ignoring the message he received from two states that helped get him elected, which supported a Democratic candidate but did not back steps forward in gay rights. A repeal now would be perceived as an appeal to a liberal base at a time when he should be reaching out to moderates, including religious moderates for whom gay issues remain a touchy subject.

Secondly, a change in the military rules would not go down smoothly. Conservative veterans would likely protest, as would many of the religious groups that mounted the strong challenges against gay marriage in California and Florida. The Republican Party would likely quickly grab hold of the debate as a wedge issue as well. Obama would need time and energy to defend the repeal, and that would distract from the economic crisis, which could hurt his public support at a time the nation is economically weakening.

By punting the issue, though, it reopens the perennial question - is there ever a right time to make a big move on gay rights. By 2010, midterm congressional contests will add new reasons not to push a repeal on "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."

-Matthew Berger

Another name in RNC race?

The Hotline reporting this morning:

After receiving calls from RNC members asking him to run for RNC chair, ex-OH Sec/State Ken Blackwell is now considering a bid (Wake-Up Call! sources).

Blackwell was soundly defeated in his Ohio gov bid in '06, after a controversial stint as the secretary of state there. He's since been writing at Town Hall and heading up the Coalition for a Conservative Majority.

If he were to be a candidate for the RNC gig, that would mean the party has two African Americans vying to be one of the party's leading voices during an Obama administration. Michael Steele, the former Maryland lieutenant gov, is also in the mix.

As candidates in 2006, Blackwell mostly held to his strict conservative views on abortion, taxes and gun rights, while Steele presented a more moderate face in the deeper blue Free State.

-Mike Memoli

"Statement"

A delightfully cryptic comment issued earlier from Hillary Clinton's Senate office, following the simple headline, "STATEMENT" (On what? one might ask)

Per Philippe Reines: "We're still in discussions, which are very much on track. Any reports beyond that are premature."

New York Times, among others, says she'll resign her Senate seat to accept Pres-elect Obama's offer to be Secretary of State.

-Mike Memoli

Cabinet speculation: the succession factor

Upon hearing the other night that AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano was the likely DHS pick, my first thought was about the curiosity that Obama just handed Republicans a governor's office. Arizona has no lieutenant governor, and so Napolitano's successor, if and when the appointment happens, would be the Republican secretary of state, Jan Brewer.

There are a few similarly interesting (at least I find them interesting) scenarios in other states if Pres-elect Obama selects certain incumbent governors and senators. Here are a few, using some of the names on the speculation list compiled by my friends at NBC:

Kansas and Montana: Both Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Brian Schweitzer chose Republicans to be their running mates - Sebelius in her '06 re-election, and Schweitzer in his initial '04 run. Mark Parkinson a Democrat now, but he used to be the Kansas Republican Party chairman, switching parties eventually amidst the turmoil within the state GOP. Schweitzer chose John Bohlinger as his running mate after a public search in which he sought applications from across the state. The two were re-elected solidly in the Democratic column.

Rhode Island and Maine: Jack Reed for Defense would give Republican Gov. Don Carcieri a chance to flip a Senate seat in Rhode Island by appointing a Republican. Gov. John Baldacci could even things out by appointing a fellow Democrat in Maine to replace Sens. Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, should either be picked.

Michigan and New Mexico: If either Bill Richardson or Jennifer Granholm gets tapped, the Democratic lieutenant governors would take over in both states. The storyline here would be that this scenario potentially helps the party hold the seats beyond 2010 by giving the number twos the advantage of running as the incumbent in two years.

Pennsylvania: The death last week of Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll makes an Ed Rendell Cabinet pick less likely, as Ben Smith pointed out last week. Republican Joe Scarnati is now the lt. gov. under state law, and Democrats wouldn't want to give him another promotion anytime soon.

Virginia: Tim Kaine was the first governor outside of Obama's home state to endorse the Illinois senator. If he were to earn a Cabinet seat, that would hand the governorship to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling for the final year of the term. It would complicate things even for the GOP, since state Attorney General, Bob McDonnell was preparing to be the party's nominee for governor next year. Might Bolling run to stay as gov instead of seeking re-election, as he plans now? And does any of it help if Terry McAuliffe were the Democratic nominee.

New Jersey: Jon Corzine left the Senate before his first term ended to run for governor. Now, he could potentially leave the governor's office with a year left in his term to head Treasury. New Jersey still doesn't have a lieutenant governor (though that changes soon), so Senate President Dick Codey would again become "acting governor," as he did in 2004 when Jim McGreevey resigned. Some New Jersey Democrats might not mind this scenario, at least those who think that the popular Codey might actually be a stronger candidate in 2009 against a likely strong Republican challenger in Chris Christie.

- Mike Memoli

A DHS shift to immigration?

So it looks like Arizona Gov. Janet Napolitano will be the next homeland security secretary. It's an underappreciated position for Obama, because the new department has never had a Democratic leader. The next secretary will essentially be laying out the party's philosophy on a wide range of issues, from border security and immigration to counterterrorism.

Napolitano, by all accounts, brings a lot to the table as a potential homeland security secretary. As the governor of a border state, she would bring a unique perspective to the immigration debate, where she has advocated for increased enforcement but opposes a fence. She's been tough on businesses that hired undocumented workers, a tough position to take as a Democratic governor in a state with a large Hispanic population. She called for the National Guard to police the border and coordinated an online system so employers could check new hires' work status.

She's also a former U.S. attorney, which gives her law enforcement credentials. Counterterrorism, though, is not her area of expertise, certainly when compared to someone like Michael Chertoff. It will likely raise questions about whether the department will shift resources to immigration issues, and reopen discussions about whether the Federal Emergency Management Agency will be moved out from its purview.

But perhaps where Napolitano could be utilized most is in helping the fledging department deal with the states and cities it needs to coordinate with. Since the beginning, the department has drawn complaints from local law enforcement who say they aren't getting the resources or the information they need from DHS. Napolitano has been on the other side of the coin, and therefore likely be well attuned to those concerns.

-Matthew Berger

Running scared (already)

After losing a dozen plus seats in the past two cycles, Republicans are already looking ahead to 2010 (MN and GA races notwithstanding). As some speculate already about whether the playing field is favorable for the GOP, handicappers should not ignore one of the lessons of this cycle: run scared or go home.

There are a host of other factors at play, but smart folks say that incumbents like Susan Collins survived a Democratic wave in a blue state because she anticipated the challenges ahead early on, and was ready from the get go against a solid Democratic recruit. Meanwhile, Saxby Chambliss faces a runoff in part because he was late to react to what became a tough race against a tough, though unknown, opponent.

With that in mind, there are some interesting tea leaves worth reading in the earliest stages of the next round. For starters - money. On Wednesday, the good folks at The Hotline ran a great chart listing cash on hand totals for the incumbents, showing most have a $1 to 3 million base. Sens. Shelby, Bayh and Schumer - all likely safe -- lead the pack with $10 million+, but next is the very vulnerable Arlen Specter, with more than $5 million.

Toward the bottom of the list are a few incumbents who may face strong challenges, like NC's Burr ($980K), NH's Gregg ($880K) and AR's Lincoln ($684K). Jim Bunning, who barely won in '04, has an anemic $175K, leading some to speculate he may retire even as he's stated otherwise. Burr's is an interesting case given the defeat of his colleague, Liddy Dole, and the fact that no one has been re-elected to the seat he holds now in decades. An adviser promises he has been working the state hard throughout his term, however.

Poking around the Internets, you get another sense of who's already girding their loins, as Joe Biden would say. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who's raised the specter of a challenge from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, has an active site that currently promotes a fundraising push in honor of her 68th birthday. David Vitter's (R-LA) site features a smiling family photo, and the slogan "Fighting for our Future." Arlen Specter is home at specter2010.com (though he may want to take down the photo of him and the losing GOP ticket).

At the other extreme, a half dozen incumbents have no Web page, including again Gregg and Lincoln. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) site invites visitors to watch "Senator-elect" Martinez' victory speech. Chris Dodd and John McCain still have their presidential sites up.

There's a long road ahead, including some open seats and at least one special election to come. VP-elect Joe Biden will resign his Senate seat within weeks of his being sworn in for a seventh term. But more on that later.

-Mike Memoli

Clinton move starts more Senate jockeying

NBC's Andrea Mitchell is reporting this morning that Hillary Clinton is likely to accept the State Department post after Thanksgiving. Largely left out of the conversation about her move to Foggy Bottom is who would get her seat in the Senate. With a Democratic governor in New York, the move would not change the balance of power, but it certainly would start a new parlor game in Washington and Albany.

My first thought would have to be Rep. Nita Lowey, who abandoned her run for the Senate in 2000 once Clinton entered the fray. I spoke with her in 2006 for Congressional Quarterly and she acknowledged that she stepped aside for Clinton and was disappointed. Lowey is well known in the state, and well regarded on Capitol Hill from her time as chair of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. But she is 71 and told me she would be less interested in the job now that she is the chairwoman of the House Appropriations subcommittee on foreign operations (at the time we were hypothesizing about an open seat if Clinton won the White House).

The safer bet is Andrew Cuomo, who has been looking for an opportunity to rise in state and national politics for a while. Choosing Cuomo would help Gov. David Paterson dispose of a potential Democratic rival when Paterson runs for his first elected term in 2010.

Paterson may also look to shore up a constituency he'll need in 2010. The New York Times reports Paterson is looking for someone who is from upstate, is a woman or Latino. Rep. Nydia Velazquez would meet two of those goals, the only problem is she represents Brooklyn, Queens and Manhattan. Rep. Brian Higgins, who represents Buffalo, is being talked about as well.

And then there's this name being talked about...Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

-Matthew Berger

The Ambinder Transition

Beginning today, I'll be off for a few days, doing this, that, and the other.

Two great young journalists, Mike Memoli and Matthew Berger, have agreed to pick up the slack. Mike just wrapped up a stint as campaign reporter for NBC and the National Journal. In that role, he spent most of the past year on the road covering the New Hampshire primary, the Clintons and the Obama. Prior to that, he spent three years at The Hotline, covering local, state and national campaigns, and was associated editor of Last Call.

Matthew covered Rudy Giuliani's campaign for NBC and the National Journal. Before that, he was a staff writer for CQ Daily and freelanced for a variety of publications, including the Jerusalem Post.

Please also use this occasion to visit other Atlantic voices.

They span an extraordinary range of ideologies and styles, and all have one thing in common: they're not afraid to write what they really think.

See you soon.

Brennan, Harding Slated For Top Intelligence Jobs

Democratic and national security sources say that former National Counterrorism Center head John Brennan remains the favorite to be nominated director of the Central Intelligence Agency even as his pending appointment raises the hackles of some Obama advisers because of his ties to George Tenet and controversial programs.

The sources say that Brennan has begun to recruit a team he hopes to bring with him to the agency, and that he has been vetted. Brennan did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment. Along with former CIA official Jami Miscik, he is helping to organize Obama's intelligence agency transition and policy review.

Also being vetted for a key intelligence job is Maj. Gen. Robert Harding (Ret)., formerly director of operations at the Defense Intelligence Agency and a former head of the army's intelligence operations.

Brennan, who was once slated to be deputy to current DNI Mike McConnell, is a lifelong Republican who converted to Obama last year, after his friend Tony Lake asked Brennan to serve on an intelligence advisory panel. A career CIA officer, Brennan favors a holistic and systematic approach to intelligence gathering, and earned the respect of Democrats as the founding director of the Terrorist Threat Integration Center, now the National Counterrorism Center. On terrorism, as he told National Journal's Shane Harris, United States foreign policy should be more proactive.

I am a strong proponent of trying to focus more of our efforts on the upstream phenomenon of terrorism. I make the analogy to pollution. We learned that pollutants kill us when they get into the water we drink or the fish we eat or the air we breathe. But I think we also learned that we have to go upstream to identify and eliminate those sources of pollution. Terrorism is a tactic, and we have to be more focused upstream. Since 9/11, understandably we've focused downstream, on those terrorists who might be in our midst or trying to kill us, the operators. I think there needs to be much more attention paid to those upstream factors and conditions that spawn terrorists.

But, as George Tenet's chief of staff and deputy executive dierctor, Brennan was undoubtedly read into some of the Bush Administration's more controversial intelligence programs, although there is no evidence that he made decisions. In interviews since leaving the government, Brennan has expressed support for the government's rendition policy, calling it effective, "enhanced" interrogation techniques and immunity for telecommunications companies involved in government spying efforts.

Obama takes an opposite position on all three subjects. His widely reported choice of former deputy attorney Eric Holder as attorney general may help mollify critics of the Brennan pick, as Holder and White House counsel Gregory Craig, along with Obama's national security adviser and director of national intelligence, will set policy, not Brennan.

ABC News reported tonight that Marine Gen. James Jones (Ret.) is the leading candidate to be Barack Obama's national security adviser, and Adm. Dennis Blair (Ret.), the top candidate to be director of national intelligence.

Obama Field Organizers Hold Post Election Conference Calls

Obama's political team wants the advice of its field organizers to figure out what happens to the movement they've built. There are so many senior field organizers that the Obama campaign had to organize five days of conferences with four simultaneous calls per conference.

Here's an e-mail forwarded by one field organizer:

Dear Field Organizers:

Congratulations again to all of you! Thank you for the contribution you made building this movement and electing Senator Obama the next President of the United States. You are the reason we have come this far. Let me make that clear: YOU are the reason Barack Obama is assembling a team of people to run our government right now. YOU are the reason we have and will continue to change the world.
As a part of the transition process, we are completing a thorough analysis of the campaign and are seeking your input on where we should go from here. In order to do this, we are setting up a series of one hour conference calls starting this Friday, November 21^st through Tuesday, November 25^th. You will be joined by up to 9 other Field Organizers from throughout the country for this discussion which will be led by a facilitator from the campaign.
I'm asking that each of you sign up for one of these calls online by the end of the day this Thursday. Just click on the links below to rsvp for a call (each day has multiple calls you can attend. They are set up as MyBo events - do not worry about the "location" of the calls. We had to put a city in there to make it a MyBo event). The conference call information is all provided online. Thank you for your participation in this important process. Look forward to hearing from each one of you.

All call times are listed in Central Standard Time
[Note: Each time slot has four calls happening simultaneously. If a call is full for the time at which you'd like to participate, simply scroll down to sign up for another call at that time]
This is your chance to tell us what you think of your experience as an Organizer on the campaign and what you think should happen with this movement going forward. We will also update you on the transition at the beginning of the calls to make sure you are looped in on where things stand.
In solidarity,

Clinton Decision Expected Soon

Democrats close to Sen. Hillary Clinton have told associates that by close of business on Friday, they hope to know, one way or the other, whether Clinton will become President-elect Barack Obama's Secretary of State. Others say that while they expect a decision very soon, although no time-frame has been given.

Fewer than a half dozen Clinton aides and advisers are privy to the details of the vetting and to the state of Clinton's thinking about the job.

Given the size of the colander holes in Washington these days, the decision, whenever it is made, will probably leak fairly rapidly.

The Politico's Mike Allen reported Wednesday that loose ends will be wrapped up in short order, and that an announcement of Clinton's position could come before Thanksgiving.

Transition officials caution that the timing of any announcement is subject to change. One Democrat in daily contact with transition officials said the Clinton appointment "is all but a done deal," although that official did not know whether Clinton has formally accepted a formal offer.

So maybe we know nothing more than we know already.

A Clinton spokesman referred all requests for comment to the transition team; a transition spokesman declined to comment.

Tales From The NSA: The Official Word On The Liberty Incident

On Monday, thanks to the National Security Archive, the National Security Agency released thousands of pages from its enormous, official, classified history of the nation's signal intelligence and communications security operations during the code war. Its author is Dr. Thomas Johnson, the agency's official historian.

In the labyrinthine and opaque history of the United States's relationship with Israel, the deadly 1967 attack by Israeli fighter jets on a United States Navy intelligence ship, the USS Liberty, remains a sore point and is much debated. Despite the sensitivity of the incident -- it involved the most secretive agency in government, a most important American alliance, extremely sensitive technical details, historians and journalists have an enormous reservoir of documents to mine through, and most of the major players have long-since given their first-person interviews.

The official version is that the U.S. accepts the Israeli explanation for the attack; that it was an accident, the result of a chain of errors in judgment, command and execution. But the truth is that it the U.S. government was skeptical for far longer than had been previously acknowledged. (The Chicago Tribune's John Crewdson has perhaps the most comprehensive, most compelling recent account of the controversy.) One of the key disputes: was the ship itself, or another NSA collection technology, monitoring Israeli defense communications? (And did Israel, figuring this out, seek to disable the ship or send a message to Americans by strafing it?)

The official declassified NSA history says no, although there is a caveat; "Although there was no sigint bearing directly on the attack, there was a [16 LETTER REDACTION] report shortly after the incident dealing with the aftermath. It detailed air-ground communications between a controller as Halstor and two Israeli helicopters with reconnoitered the Liberty as it was turning toward Malta."

We are left to guess at what's redacted. Here's a clue: Crewdson's 2007 article notes that a Navy SIGINT collection airplane picked up conversations between the helicopters and Israeli controllers in the immediate aftermath. The Navy specialist who listened to the events in real-time told Crewdson that the NSA's voluminous release of documents was incomplete.

Here's a portion from the new history:

The entire history, which will take us afficiandos a while to pluck through, was once classified as Top Secret Umbra, with Umbra denoting intelligence of a specific level of sensitivity. At the bottom of the document, the reader is instructed to Handle Via Talent-Keyhole Comint Channels Jointly. For those who aren't intel fetishists, Talent-Keyhole is a category designation of sensitive compartmented information that deals with signals intelligence. Talent information deals with aircraft-gathered intelligence; Keyhole denotes imagery (imint) from satellites. Comint refers to sensitive signals intelligence methods and sources. Basically, the history was written at a level of classification that basically forbid even many intelligence professionals from reading it.

Of course, that's all been declassified. Or most of it -- the documents are studded with fascinating redactions...

Obama And A New Liberal Consensus

If Barack Obama wants to forge a new liberal consensus in mainstream America, would it be better for him to hire only Democrats for his administration? Or would it be better for him to do what he tells us he is inclined to do: appoint some Republicans to enact liberal policies?

If high-profile Republicans (say, Arnold Schwarzenegger) are in charge of large liberal initiatives (say, a public works project to rebuild infrastructure across America), that might create the impression that not only are Obama's progressive views mainstream, but that Republicans have tacitly conceded the economic debate altogether.

Some Democrats are wary of Obama's professed bipartisanship. But there's been no evidence that his views are torn between the left and the right; he is clearly putting forth a progressive, or liberal, agenda. So, rather than a Democrat bringing in a bunch of Republicans to govern by splitting the baby between the two sides, it appears that we have a case of a Democrat bringing in Republicans to put a bipartisan face on progressive policy, shades of, say, George Bush bringing in Ted Kennedy to put a bipartisan face on "compassionate conservatism."

During the last period of liberal consensus (from the 1930s through the early 1960s), Republicans like Eisenhower may not have been as liberal as Democrats like Adlai Stevenson, but they accepted the new political realities and worked to strengthen and extend Roosevelt's ideas (it was Eisenhower, after all, who built the enormous infrastructure project known as the interstate highway system, and who railed against those conservatives seeking to dismantle Social Security).

Continue reading "Obama And A New Liberal Consensus" »

McCain Likes Napolitano As Homeland Security Czar

Why anyone would want to take over DHS is a mystery to many in Washington, and it's not entirely clear that Gov. Janet Napolitano will get the job.

But fellow Arizonan, Sen. John McCain, may have given us a clue. He called Napolitano today and emerged from the call with a statement of congratulations and support:

Today, Senator McCain called and congratulated Governor Janet Napolitano on her emergence as top contender for Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. Senator McCain said "Governor Napolitano's experience as the former U.S. Attorney for Arizona, Arizona's Attorney General, and as Governor warrants her rapid confirmation by the Senate and I hope she is quickly confirmed." Senator McCain looks forward to working with her throughout the nomination process.

BTW: no inside information here on whether Penny Pritzker is going to get the Commerce portfolio, but the idea of having a Penny at Commerce during a recession is kind of appropriate, no?

California Dreams Come True

The biggest state in the union is finally its getting its due in Congress.

Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker.

George Miller, overseeing education policy.

And now Henry Waxman, who officially ousted John Dingell today, will be a co-architect of the nation's health care and energy/climate change policies.

The Atlantic's Boldest: The Department Of Corrections

1. Yesterday, I wrote way too hastily that President Clinton had canceled his campaign trip to Georgia in order to attend to his wife's "pressing business." Here's what happened: because Clinton wants to attend to said business, his staff asked Jim Martin's campaign to move the location of a fundraiser closer to the venue for Clinton's public speech. There was some confusion, some gnashing of teeth, and knowledgeably people downstream picked up bad information. Unfortunately, I took the information and printed it before checking with Clinton's spokesman, Matt McKenna, whose evening was almost ruined by a call list that grew by 20 names of reporters who were trying to figure out what was happening. My reporting was sloppy; that's what happened.

2. Earlier this week, I speculated about John Kerry and the Department of the Interior. Actually, I'd be surprised if Kerry leaves the Senate if he doesn't become Secretary of State.

3. A reader writes:

I don't really care much about the overall point being made, but as a professional poker player, i have to say that "Reader David Loewenberg" is completely misusing his poker metaphor. In fact, his metaphor works entirely against the point he is trying to make. When someone is shortstacked (the phrase is not "small stacked", you take any chance that is +ev to eliminate him. you DON'T want any player to stick around ever if you eliminate them in a tournament. (it's pretty similar in a cash game). As to calling a shortstack's bluffing, in that situation the caller is rarely more than a 60% favorite to win that particular hand.

2012 Watch: Mike Huckabee In Iowa Today

Former Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) will be in Cedar Rapids, IA and Des Moines, IA today to promote his new book, "Do the Right Thing: Inside the Movement To Bring Common Sense Back To America," which hit bookstores on Tuesday.

To be sure, Huckabee is popular in Iowa, and he wants to sell books, so you shouldn't necessarily read much into his visit to DSM. On the other hand, his publishing company chose Iowa to host his first outside-the-Beltway event.

RNC Chair Race: Don Wildmon Endorses Katon Dawson

American Family Association founder Don E. Wildmon has endorsed South Carolina Republican Party head Katon Dawson's RNC chairman's bid.

In an e-mail sent to supporters today, Wildmon writes that "if the Republican Party is to survive, it must get back to its roots. I believe that Katon Dawson...has the ability to take the party where it needs to go."

As a post script, Wildmon throws a little dirt at one of Dawson's opponents. He passes along a transcript of Lt. Gov. Michael Steele equivocating about Roe v. Wade in 2006. "[F]or many in the pro-life movement, Steele's comments could disqualify him from receiving their support."

Wildmon endorsed Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign. It's notable that he's not endorsing Huckabee's preferred candidate, Chip Saltsman.

Those Oogedy Boogedy Christians

Is there evidence that suburban independents chose not to vote Republican primarily or even pluralily* because they worried about what Kathleen Parker calls the Oogedy Boogedy sect within the party? (i.e., Andrew's Christianists, Ross's conservative evangelicals.)? Lots of people assume that there is. This assumption is common more to liberals and centrists than it is to conservatives, of course. It'd be good to see some hard numbers from either side of this debate.

The problem with Sarah Palin, at least according to pre-election polls, was not that she exemplified/amplified the Christian right. It was that voters perceived her to be incompetent and not able to handle the job of commander in chief. In any event, there might be evidence to support this claim; Barack Obama ( a self-described evangelical, it must be said) turned over a whole bunch of suburbs in fast-growing areas. Democrats tried mightily to make inroads with conservative evangelicals, and they failed. This demographic group is, as Larison points out, is one of the most reliable factions within the party. At this point, they matter enough. The dirty secret is not that a large part of the Republican establishment is worried about their influence. There are two secrets, actually: one -- that the "leaders" of the various movements within social conservatism are ill-adapted to modern politics and can exacerbate tensions between the movement and outsiders; and two -- that a large part of the Republican establishment believes they can pander to these voters, not address their core concerns, and still rely on them for support. You can't build a Republican Party without them, but, depending on where you are in this great land of ours, you can safely ignore their cultural demands and still be a success, even if you're a Republican. When Charlie Crist ran for governor of Florida, he vacillated between pandering to the right and ignoring them. As governor, he's ignored them. And his approval rating is at 68%.

Continue reading "Those Oogedy Boogedy Christians" »

Digesting The News Today

Chock full of news, not enough time to post.

** Barack Obama has asked former Sen. Tom Daschle to serve as Secretary of HHS, thus putting the South Dakotan on point to represent the administration in crafting a major health care reform legislation. Daschle has been serving in this role informally for weeks. In February, he published a widely lauded but little read book on health care reform. HHS is an enormous, caterwauling sprawl of an empire, the biggest (budget wise) outside Defense.

** Colleagues at CongressDaily report that members of the House Democratic steering committee voted by a slim margin to oust Rep, John Dingell from his post as chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. The full house will vote tomorrow. Coincidentally, the Dow closed below 8,000 on fears that Congress won't bail out the auto industry. China may.

** Why, if Republican Norm Coleman is leading Al Franken at the beginning of a recount, are Republicans fairly pessimistic about his chances? It's the undervotes. But it will be close....

Axelrod, Brown, Craig, Lu Announced

David Axelrod will be a senior adviser to the President. Readers of this column known him well. Here is his official biography:

David Axelrod served as President-elect Obama's Chief Strategist during the presidential campaign, and led Obama's 2004 Senate campaign. A native of New York City, Axelrod graduated from the University of Chicago and spent eight years as a reporter for the Chicago Tribune, where he covered national, state and local politics and became the youngest political writer and columnist in the paper's history. Leaving journalism in 1984, Axelrod managed Paul Simon's upset victory over incumbent U.S. Senator Charles Percy of Illinois. In 1985, he founded Axelrod & Associates, a political consulting firm known today as AKP&D Message and Media. Axelrod has worked for leading Democrats across the country, including Senators Hillary Clinton, Chris Dodd, and Herb Kohl, as well as Governor Tom Vilsack of Iowa, Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts, Congressman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois, and Mayor Richard Daley of Chicago, along with mayors of big cities across the country. He is married to Susan Axelrod, president and founder of Citizens United for Research in Epilepsy (CURE). They have three grown children.

Lisa Brown, a former White House counsel for Al Gore and currently the executive director of the American Constitution Society, will be Staff Secretary, where she'll be tasked with managing the flow of information and paper to and from President Obama. The name of the job -- "staff secretary" -- it at odds with its importance. Brown will have more face time with Obama than just about any other White House staffer.

Greg Craig will be White House counsel. His biography is also well known to readers of this column.

Chris Lu, the executive director of the transition, will be cabinet secretary, where he'll manage the White House's relationship with agencies and Cabinet Secretaries. It's another vital behind-the-scenes job that's usually a stepping stone to an even more important frontline job. When agency heads have a problem, or when the White House has a problem with an agency head, Mr. Lu will be the first person who's called, or calls. Lu is a Harvard Law School classmate of Sen. Obama's.

Bill Clinton [DOES NOT] Cancel Georgia Campaign Visit

~~Former president Bill Clinton~~ canceled his visit to Georgia today, where he was to campaign this evening for Democratic Senate candidate Jim Martin.

The reason given to Martin's campaign?

WJC had "pressing business" to attend to.

Lots of confusion.

The Clinton event is still on, though the venue has been changed.

A Clinton spokesman says that the former President is on his way to Georgia now.

Hopefully, the Martin campaign knows this. More later when I figured out what happened.

Apologies to those who I mislead.

The RNC Chairman's Race: Saltsman Platform

RNC chairman candidate John "Chip" Saltsman has mailed his platform to members of the national committee. It provides us with an opportunity to look at the race.

Plan_for_Republican_Victory-Chip_Saltsman[1].pdf

In the schema, Saltsman comes down on the side of those who believe that the Republican Party does not have an ideological problem and that the country has not repudiated conservatism. He identifies target demographics -- younger voters, Hispanics, African Americans, and suggests that enhanced outreach will catalyze their movement toward Republicans. (Not to be outdone, candidate Michael Steele tells the Washington Times that "outreach" isn't enough; the chairman must actually listen to these constituents. "The problem is that within the operations of the RNC, they don't give a damn. It's all about outreach ... and outreach means let's throw a cocktail party, find some black folks and Hispanics and women, wrap our arms around them." Ok -- but what does the RNC say to these folks?

Continue reading "The RNC Chairman's Race: Saltsman Platform" »

The Future Of Obama Activism

(Note: Buzzin' Ben Smith first called attention to this.)

Barack Obama's political team -- OFA2, as they call it internally -- wants to know what Obama's supports would like to do with the 10,000,000-strong Obama volunteer army. Actually, that's 10 million e-mail addresses; the campaign estimates that two million people volunteered in some way and about one million volunteered to help get out Obama's vote.

They've sent a fairly comprehensive survey to everyone on The List asking everything from whether supporters attend religious services to whether they identify themselves with one of 16 identity groups to whether they'd be interested in helping Obama "pass legislation through grassroots efforts."

In an introductory e-mail, campaign manager David Plouffe writes that Obama and Biden "will need your support more than ever. You've built an organization in your community and across the country that will continue to work for change -- whether it's by building grassroots support for legislation, backing state and local candidates, or sharing organizing techniques to effect change in your neighborhood. Your hard work built this movement. Now it's up to you to decide how we move forward."

Read the five-page survey here.

Annals Of Stupid Corporate PR Tricks

The adjective applies.

This morning, Ford's chief executive officer, Alan Mulally, arrived on Capitol Hill driving a new Ford Fusion Hybrid.

The press knew this was going to happen because Ford's PR machine sent word to daybook editors yesterday.

One could forgive the company for this photo-op; after all, Detroit is very anxious to prove that it gets why people are so frustrated, and it gets why fuel efficient cars are its future. And the Ford Fusion is a pretty good car. If the company's ethos is changing, then maybe the photo op is even intellectually honest.

No one expects Mulally to drive from Detroit (or Seattle, where he lives) to Washington in a hybrid. Heck, we don't expect him to fly to DC in coach class; that would be sanctimonious and cheap. He's still a CEO....

But you've got to wonder whether anyone in Mulally's inner circle was thinking through the consequences of allowing the CEO to travel to Washington on the company's own private jet as they're seeking a bailout -- the failure or success of which depends on the automakers winning a public relations battle.... within which the company has to prove that (a) it really is running out of cash (b) its management is cutting back on expenses and (c) management gets it.

Eric Holder, Old Washington, New Washington.

Friends and associates of Eric Holder are now tripping over themselves to confirm to reporters that Holder is preparing to assume the top job at the Department of Justice.

In Old Washington, nominees were dead if they had no political constituencies: the left wouldn't going to defend Holder and the right would go bonkers.

In Old Washington, the onus would be on Senate Democrats to grill Holder about the episode; if they do so, sufficiently, it won't be a problem. If they don't, Republicans will have a cudgel to lord over Obama's Justice and national security policies.

Holder -- and the vice presidential vetting process -- survived the mini-maelstrom about the Rich pardons, over which Holder has publicly and privately agonized, it must be said, and actually had little to do with. He was brought into the process late, not having been fully briefed, and made a gut call, which turned out to be a bad call.

But being AG is different. Maybe Obama's Washington is different. Holder's views on torture, NSA wiretapping et. al. are crystal clear and quite rousing to the intellectual left. Maybe, in these times, an acknowledged error in judgment eight and a half years ago isn't close to being a disqualifier. Remember, Obama has at many times bemoaned the panopticon-like scrutiny that those who choose public service must survive, and he has shown a capacity for choosing competent individuals who've made major political mistakes before.

And President Bush's AG appointments weren't exactly shrinking violets in the controversy department.

Lieberman: Two Additional Views: A Failure As Chairman; Obama's Poker Face

The first, from several readers is that Sen. Lieberman has simply been a bad committee chairman -- he never held probing hearings into the President's homeland security doings, or its response to Katrina. (The counter to this might be that none of the other committees in the Senate want to yield their portfolios to the new Homeland Security committee, although Lieberman could have gotten hearings if he had wanted to.) Here's an argument from Prof. John Zaslow that is harder to rebut:

All of this might be forgiven if Lieberman had shown that he was an excellent committee chairman. But in fact, he has been a terrible one. This is partly because of his failure to investigate the serial incompetence of the administration on just about everything. Katrina was only one. And this didn't have to be partisan: incompetence is incompetence no matter who does it. Judge Richard Posner of the 7th Circuit--certainly no liberal--has in several opinions accused the immigration judges in ICE of being the most incompetent he had seen (as an example, see http://www.law.com/jsp/article.jsp?id=1208861007986) but there are lots of others). Wouldn't it have been nice to have had the Senate Homeland Security investigating these things and trying to fix them? You can also read Edward Alden's terrific new book, "The Closing of the American Border", which shows in quite painstaking detail the horrific problems that DHS has had in getting up to speed, establishing sound policies, or even understanding what the problem is/was. And where was Joe Lieberman in all of this? Nowhere.

This is far more than just political payback. It reflects a concern that, now that Democrats simply do not have the will to enforce the public mandate. I don't care about Lieberman personally; but I care an awful lot about the country. And I'm not sure that Senate Democrats do.

Reader David Loewenberg has been watching his WSOP:

One of the most important points about winning poker is counting your opponents' chips. Joe Lieberman is "small stacked" in chips and that's why Obama wants him at the table. How so? Because Obama will win those chips later on in the "game." Obama is a poker-player (and I'm sure that Lieberman is not). He knows "when to hold 'em and when to fold 'em." Trust me, he will call Lieberman's bluffing (actually, he'll have someone else call it) when it's time, when he needs the votes for important legislation, for example. And if Saint Joe starts to feel comfortable and begins to "bully the table" again, he'll get called and show his weak hand against, undoubtedly, Obama's winning hand. The President-elect hasn't missed a "read" yet; he knows he can play Lieberman for as long (or as short) as he wants to.

Joe Lieberman's First Interview

It'll be tomorrow, with Katie Couric, in Washington, D.C. It airs tomorrow night on the CBS Evening News.

Got questions for the senator?

E-mail me, and I'll pass them along to Katie. (Yes, really.)

Inside The Clinton (ClintonS) Vet

The vetting of Hillary Clinton is ongoing, delicate, sensitive and private -- but not, according to people with direct knowledge of the work, acrimonious.

Despite press reports about former President Bill Clinton's resistance to turn over information about his income sources, international business dealings and foundation donors, he has instructed Cheryl Mills, the long-time Clinton lawyer overseeing the liaison with Obama's team, to collect and turn over everything requested by Obama's vetters.

Bill Clinton has also indicated, according to sources, that he would be willing to step down as the functional leader of his foundation for the duration of his wife's tenure in the Obama administration. He would readily agree, these sources say, to disclose any new sources of income and submit his speaking schedule -- and his speeches -- to State Department officials in advance.

A team of lawyers supervises the vetting of more than a dozen candidates for top administration jobs. Todd Stern, an attorney at Wilmer Hale and a close associate of John Podesta's, is an informal liaison between the Clinton and Obama teams. Stern is also supervising the transition team's review of the structure of the White House and executive orders.

As Politico's Glenn Thrush reports, Clinton is keeping her counsel, limiting updates on her thinking to a small circle of advisers who are known to be particularly discreet. Clinton's larger circle of political aides are eager to portray the Clintons as cooperative and transparent -- see this post from Clinton adviser Howard Wolfson on the couple's financial disclosures to date -- but sources involved in the vetting and others close to Obama concur: the two teams are working well together and there have been "no bumps in the road." Lawyers working on the vet are prohibited by their professional ethos, as well as signed non-disclosure agreements, from discussing the work.

Without being privy to Clinton's interior thinking, here is some informed speculation about the choice she faces. She would be Secretary of State in an administration dominated by other foreign policy heavyweights. She will wonder where Joe Biden fits in to all of this; the two senators are collegial and competitive. There is some angst with Joe Biden's circle of confidants about Clinton's serving as Secretary of State. It is not clear whether Biden himself shares the angst.

Clinton's every utterance would have to be prescreened; she would not be able to pick and choose her battles; she might be delimited by the State Department's bureaucratic imperatives. On the other hand, it is conceivable that President Obama would hand Sen. Clinton a ticket with the words "Middle East Peace" printed on it, and say: "Go," giving Clinton the flexibility and transitive authority to secure her place in history.

Obama, in his conversations with Sen. Clinton over the course of the campaign and after, has told Clinton that he wants her to play a key role in the various big-ticket proposals that he'll send to Congress, including health care. Clinton takes Obama at his word, even as other senators maneuver around and ahead of her. If Obama designates Clinton as the lead on a subject, she'll probably be the lead on that subject.

Provocation of The Day: Why Obama Will Escape The Blame For Lieberman

Well, liberals and progressives have just won themselves a major election. Eight years worth of pent-up azure-colored progressivism spewed forth from a long-simmering volcano. There's a mandate in here, somewhere. Now, conservatives may be right in the ultimate sense that Americans did not intend to let progressives define the extent of the change they voted in, and they are burnt when observers link the conservative movement of the late 1970s (which Reagan ran with) to the liberal movement of the Howard Dean-Barack Obama era (which Barack Obama kept some distance from). History will probably sustain the comparison in one sense: conservatives claimed a mandate after 1980, even if one did not exist in the phenominological sense, and liberals have as much right to claim a mandate today as conservatives did then.

Barack Obama, a man of the left with an empiricist, pragmatic, and politically hard-hearted temperament, is poised to deliber major progressive legislation: a transformative energy economy; universal health care; labor law reform; expanded federal rights for gays; transportation and infastructure spending; expansive regulation.

The few grumbles and grumblers will probably be shunted to the side, and anger may be channeled elsewhere. The Democratic Party is as united, now, as united since it's been since the government shutdown in the mid 1990s, and certainly as united as it ever will be.

Obama has proven adept at bringing new voices into his coalition without alienating existing supporters.

Obama's priorities in this fight over Joe Lieberman fight are in line with his priorities during the campaign: don't bother with petty fights that waste precious time and resources. Gather as much support as possible for the big prize.

He operates as a coalition-builder, and the political culture simply not used to that type of president, since we haven't had one for at least the past twenty years.

So: we shall try to look for fault lines that this volcanic eruption exposed. We can -- and will -- find contrarian voices to fill the storyline that we're absolutely certain must exist because it has existed for so long.

Or: we can adjust to new realities. One of them is that Obama found new ways to ascend to the summit, ways that don't involve rewarding pressure groups, ways that didn't even involve the netroots elites (although it certainly borrowed/stole/used the technological gridwork that they spent years building.)

Many on the left spent most of of 2008 questioning Obama's campaign, strategy, tactics, debate performances, obama's responses to this or that event.

Those voices have quieted; Obama won by seven points and two hundred electoral votes. He's going to get the benefit of the doubt.

Newsweek: Obama Asks Eric Holder To Be AG

Michael Isikoff, naturally:

President-elect Obama has decided to tap Eric Holder as his attorney general, putting the veteran Washington lawyer in place to become the first African-American to head the Justice Department, according to two legal sources close to the presidential transition.

Holder, who served as deputy attorney general during the Clinton administration, still has to undergo a formal "vetting" review by the Obama transition team before the selection is final and is publicly announced, said one of the sources, who asked not to be identified talking about the transition process. But in the discussions over the past few days, Obama offered Holder the job and he accepted, the source said. The announcement is not likely until after Obama announces his choices to lead the Treasury and State departments.

An interesting choice if it's true; He's known in political circles for one thing, but he's very well respected by his colleagues in the legal profession. That's all one can say for now. He'll have one of the more interesting confirmation hearings.

But -- again -- and this may reflect reportorial jealousy -- do these leaks bother Obama?

Or is he reconciled to the fact of them?

Obama Wants Orszag At OMB

Barack Obama has tapped CBO director Peter Orszag to be director of the Office of Management and Budget, my collegues at National Journal report today.

He's a youngish overachiever, just 40, and subscribes to the theory of what he once called "cool-headed, warm-hearted" economic policy. Judging by his blog, Orszag has smart and interesting things to say about the intersection of psychology and economics, the long-term vs. short-term effects of climate change legislation, honest budgeting and accounting, and lots more.

OMB is the executive branch's budgetary arm and management oversight evaluator. The director serves as a key presidential adviser on the economy and is responsible for projecting the fiscal consequences of any presidential decision. OMB would figure out how much Barack Obama's health care plan will cost, for example, as it gets introduced in Congress. It'll score every bill that Congress sends to Obama. It's the repository of policy, responsible for official statements. More to the point, though, is that OMB will administer Obama's transparency agenda. Regulatory reform will originate at OMB.

For Today, One Angry Left

Sen. and chairman Joe Lieberman:

"I was pleased with the discussion we had at the Democratic Party caucus this morning. There was a very good and worthwhile exchange of views and there was a productive outcome. I want to thank Senator Reid for his wise and valued leadership on this matter. I look forward to continuing to chair the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and working to ensure our country remains safe and secure.

"The election is now over and we have a new President-elect - it is imperative that we put politics aside and address the challenges facing our country. I look forward to working with President Obama, and with my colleagues from both parties to restore our economic prosperity, reform our healthcare system, protect the environment, keep our country safe, and on many others issues. Let us turn the page, honoring our differences and moving forward together."

Today will be the exception.

The left will be vocal and angry.

By and large, they aren't going to blame Obama; more on that later.

They're going to blame the Senate as an institution and the press. .

One reader implied in an e-mail that if the press had only covered the story better, than decision-makers would have better context within which to punish Lieberman; basically, the press is at fault for not educating the American people well enough about Lieberman's political sins which would have led to (>>) more pressure on the Senate which would have led to (>>) more pressure on Obama and Harry Reid which might have yielded (>>) a different vote. Here is the sentence from that reader: "Perhaps if people were actually informed by the media in detail of what Lieberman has said and did, there might have been more pressure to have him removed."

What's the bill of particulars here? What were Joe Lieberman's sins? So far as I can gather - and this hunter-gatherer verb is brought to you by years of talking to liberals and progressives, Mr. Lieberman:

... undercut the Democratic Party at critical junctures.

... undercut the Democratic Party's national security messaging efforts at critical junctures, reinforcing the views of independents that Democrats were weak, or transiently concerned with the subject, or unserious.

... supported the Iraq War, the Surge, President Bush at all turns.

... endorsed John McCain and spoke at the Republican convention. Criticized Obama disrespectfully.

... is seen as a sanctimonious creature who leeches; he takes the benefit of communion with the Democratic Party without performing the rituals.

... is unrepentant.

It's easy to see why Democrats resort to the fricative when pronouncing his name.

And were Senate Democrats in a retributive mood, it's easy to imagine how these sins would become venal and prohibitively grave, and bye-bye- Joe. Kicking Lieberman out of his job would have made Democrats feel good about being Democrats. It would encourage party loyalty, and what political scientists call the solidary benefits of political party membership. It would discourage those who bucked the party line.

But Senate Democrats are in a governing mood. Winning by seven points nationally and having large majorities in both chambers can do that to a party. It's going to be easier, relative to punishing Lieberman (and therefore pushing him to the Republican Party), to send progressive legislation to the President. They'll need him on filibuster breaking votes. His impact on foreign policy will be minimal. Some Senators have taken to the microphones to brag about the spirit of reconciliation that pervades the party. Maybe. But the Democrats today have sent the message that they favor convenience over party; expediency over parochialism. Make no mistake: keeping Lieberman where he was the expedient decision here.

Secret Obama Transition Team Video, Or Not

An offering from the folks at The Landline.

Late Morning / Early Afternoon Tweets

Reporters Looking For Obama v. Left Main Event

There are indications this morning that Sen. Joe Lieberman will keep his post as chairman of the Homeland Security committee, and there are indications that Sen. Barack Obama's intervention will be recorded as one of the major reasons why this is so.

Reporters, and I can't exempt myself from this, have been salivating somewhat voyueristically for a round of public fighting between the Left, broadly represented by the Netroots, and the Obama transition entity.

It will be interesting to see whether the press plays up Obama's influence on lawmakers, or if anti-Lieberman Democrats blame Harry Reid, or blame weak-kneed Senate Democrats instead of Obama.

Note: the vote this morning is by secret ballot, so expect the unexpected. Or maybe the expected.

Kerry For Interior?

If Sen. John Kerry doesn't become Secretary of State, will he be disappointed?

Probably.

But there's (at least) one more cabinet position that Kerry wouldn't be opposed to taking: Secretary of the Interior.

As the Bush Administration's recent moves suggest, Interior has a major say in creating and implementing natural resource policy, an obsession of Kerry's ever since he came to the Senate.

"If You Leak, You're Gone."

Several Obama transition staffers have put a version of that quotation in transition co-chief John Podesta's mouth.

Many of the major staff appointments so far - Rahm Emanuel as chief of staff, Greg Craig as White House counsel, the fact of the Clinton meeting, along with details about internal thinking on Gitmo and other subjects - have escaped whatever barriers the Obama team has set in place.

Every transition staffer and adviser has signed a non-disclosure agreement, and staff members are regularly warned by their superiors not to talk to the press.

My guess is that the sheer size of the universe that Obama's now dealing with - huge agency teams, reams of outside advisers being asked for their opinions - renders silence virtually impossible.

It's important to remember where the "No Drama Obama" meme started: it has less to do with information getting out about decisions than about information getting out about internal deliberations or arguments.

It's kind of amazing, if you think about it, that Obama, according to reports, is a step away from picking his chief political rival to be Secretary of State, and not one hint of serious anxiety about the choice has gotten out.

Seriously - think about the legions of former staffers Daschle and Kerry staffers who work for Obama; they're not talking to the press about their disappointment. If the decision's been made, then the drama's done. No looking backwards.

The White House Gifts A Bailout; The Politics Of GMme On the Hill

Two ways to interpret this:

Thanks to the White House, the Democrats are now stuck with half of the original $700b rescue plan It's not going to be all on the Bush administration. The Democrats get to decide whom to help and whom to hurt by not helping.

Or: the White House has granted to the Obama administration and the next Congress needed flexibility. Indeed, Democratic leaders had been pushing the White House to do just this, although they've never assumed that taking control of parts of the bailout would sell like a sunburst.

There'll be lots of pin-head dancing about whether program X is part of the first $350b or the second; a lot of entities and people have already laid claim to part of the money, and the White House isn't finished divvying up its half of the piece.

The White House won't use its share of the money to bail out the auto industry, instead preferring to tap billions that were set aside in the 2007 energy bill to help automakers "retool" their operations. Democrats argue that the $700b was passed to stabilize failing sectors of the economy, so $25b with strings attached (i.e., allowing the companies to pay no dividends) would get them through their emergency. They're prefer to keep the retooling money to incentivize the industry into producing more energy efficient cars and streamlining their production processes.

On Wednesday, theatre. Automakers will testify on the Hill. Proponents of the rescue plan hope that they'll convey an urgency that the current debate doesn't really have, or at least, hasn't been palpable enough. Is this a GM problem? A Detroit problem? Or a national problem because of secondary suppliers like Delphi and auto dealers in all 50 states.

If GM is forced to declare Chapter 7 bankrupcy and shut down immediately, its assets could be sold off. How quickly? No one knows. How many jobs would be lost temporarily? 100,000? Unclear. Permanently? More than a million? Three million?

Continue reading "The White House Gifts A Bailout; The Politics Of GMme On the Hill" »

The Waxman-Dingell Fight And The Future

On Wednesday, the House steering committee will vote to decide whether to oust Rep. John Dingell from the post of chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, where he's been a thorn in the green-besotted side of environmental and clean energy advocates. Rep. Henry Waxman wants to take his job.

The timing is propitious, given the subject matter of the main Congressional debate -- whether to transfer government cash to the auto industry, which has been Dingell's main patron and concern for decades. Detroit wants Dingell to win; Waxman has fought for more clean air regulation for 30 years. There's already talk of behind-the-scenes negotiations: maybe Dingell will stay put for another year and then step down. Waxman, and many Democratic colleagues, won't have that.

Waxman wants the job for obvious reasons: the committee will be the most powerful in the new Congress, one that'll deal with health care and energy legislation. (Ways and Means? Pleghghgh.) A lot of impatient liberal Democrats want to see Dingell go; he is too old, too blinkered in his thinking and too at odds with the party on energy, they say; just as many, it seems, want him to say, including some influential members of the leadership, even if for reasons of preserving the integrity of the seniority system.

Senior Democratic aides expect that the vote will go to the full caucus; all the loser of the steering committee vote has to do is present a letter with 35 House members. The full vote would be Thursday via secret ballot.

Dingell will need a way to save face if he loses. Perhaps he'd take a lead role in a government-ordered restructuring of the auto industry, or maybe he'd serve on a commission appointed to do the same thing.

Will There Be A State Of The Union Speech In 2009?

Constitutionally, he's required to give from "from time to time," not every year, but the expectation is that, yes, there will be an early 2009 State of the Union address.

But given that President-elect Obama's inauguration takes place a week or so before the SOTU is traditionally given, the plan, as of right now, is to push the formal State of the Union into early February. Note: the speech might not be labeled as a "State of the Union" -- it might be labeled an "economic address."

And note well that Obama's first budget is due in the middle of February....

Obama, McCain Statement On Their Meeting

Here's a joint statement from President-elect Barack Obama and U.S. Senator John McCain:

"At this defining moment in history, we believe that Americans of all parties want and need their leaders to come together and change the bad habits of Washington so that we can solve the common and urgent challenges of our time. It is in this spirit that we had a productive conversation today about the need to launch a new era of reform where we take on government waste and bitter partisanship in Washington in order to restore trust in government, and bring back prosperity and opportunity for every hardworking American family. We hope to work together in the days and months ahead on critical challenges like solving our financial crisis, creating a new energy economy, and protecting our nation's security."

Unraveling The Mystery Of Clinton's Secret Chicago Trip

On Wednesday, the call came in from Chicago: President-elect Obama wanted to meet with Sen. Clinton, in private, the next day.

According to Democratic sources, Clinton disclosed the information to only three people and swore them to secrecy.

Clinton's team went to extreme lengths to keep the trip a secret. When Clinton arrived at La Guardia airport in New York for the Delta flight, she was the last person to board the plane. In Chicago, she was the first person to disembark.

The subterfuge did not work -- Clinton was spotted as she boarded the plane in New York. It wasn't until later that day, when a pool reporter noticed a second motorcade of black SUVs leaving the underground garage of the Chicago federal building where Obama is holding court, that journalists began to ask whether Clinton had just taken a private meeting with Obama.

Initial confirmation seemed to come from an unnamed Clinton spokesperson who allegedly told NBC's Andrea Mitchell that Clinton was in Chicago for "private business." Mitchell later clarified that she heard the words from a Clinton "adviser," not from Clinton's Senate office. (The New York Times, in a correction today, attributes "media reports" for the misinformation.)

Neither Clinton nor Obama spokespeople have formally acknowledged that the two had a meeting, although Obama confirmed it on 60 Minutes.

So -- what's responsible for the radio silence between Thursday and today?

A few things:

Sources close to the process have said that Obama and Clinton discussed a variety of possible roles she could play in a new administration, including Secretary of State.

If Clinton is offered a cabinet spot and decides to accept it, it's not unreasonable to expect her to want to think about her options and spend time discussing the offer with her close friends and advisers.

As it happens, three of her top advisers -- former campaign manager Maggie Williams, chief legal adviser Cheryl Mills, and President Clinton -- were out of the country late last week.

Mills, who was Abu Dhabi, has always played a central role on any matters related to the Clinton's joint finances or the presidents' foundation work. Any vet of Clinton's finances would run through Mills.

Bill and Hillary would be called upon to make decisions about transparency together, and since the former president was in Europe and Kuwait through Sunday, it's not unreasonable to expect Hillary Clinton to want to cogitate with her husband in person.

People close to the Obama transition say they understand all this -- they understood all this last week --- and that there's been no delaying, there's been no acrimony, and that Clinton and her team have acted professionally and appropriately.

Obama's First Big-Ticket Item....

Talking to top economic advisors about how we're gonna create jobs, how we get the economy back on track and what do we do in terms of some long-term issues like energy and healthcare. And how do we sequence those things in a way that we can actually get things through Congress?

That's Barack Obama on 60 Minutes, asking himself a few questions about priorities.

A little while later, Obama answers his own question, as Steve Kroft asks him about the importance of shoring up the economy.

Kroft: Does doing something about energy is it less important now than...

Mr. Obama: It's more important. It may be a little harder politically, but it's more important.

Kroft: Why?

Mr. Obama: Well, because this has been our pattern. We go from shock to trance. You know, oil prices go up, gas prices at the pump go up, everybody goes into a flurry of activity. And then the prices go back down and suddenly we act like it's not important, and we start, you know filling up our SUVs again.

And, as a consequence, we never make any progress. It's part of the addiction, all right. That has to be broken. Now is the time to break it.

What this suggests is that the first big-ticket item Obama has decided to purchase is major energy legislation.

Obama's Filling The White House, And Early

The Obama transition office dropped more senior staff appointments this morning. The names are interesting in themselves -- an ideologically diverse passel of people -- but, again, what's remarkable, at least for a Democrat, is how early Obama is staffing his White House. Most of Bill Clinton's senior staff weren't appointed until a least a month later. Read the press release after the jump.

Continue reading "Obama's Filling The White House, And Early" »

A Clue About The Identity Of The Next CIA Director?

(send your transition tips and RUMINT here; Judy Miller-level anonymity guaranteed, but for goodness sakes, use your non-government e-mail account!)

On Friday, after he was announced as an agency review team member for Barack Obama,
John O. Brennan submitted his resignation from INSA, an intelligence community and industry think tank; he had been the group's chairman since 2007.

An associate of Brennan's said that he has also stepped down -- perhaps temporarily -- from his position as CEO of the The Analysis Corporation (TAC), a national security and counterterrorism contractor.

Transition rules prohibit agency review team members from drawing salaries on the side or working for non-profits engaged in their subject areas; Brennan's decision to accept an invitation suggests a willingness to work for the Obama administration after the transition ends.

National security experts believe that Mr. Brennan, who endorsed Obama early in the campaign, has the inside track to Langley, where he served as deputy executive director under George Tenet and the founding director of the Terrorist Threat Analysis Center (now the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC).)

Brennan has served on both the operations and analysis sides of the CIA, serving as chief of station in Saudi Arabia, chief of analysis for the director's counterterrorism center, and a daily intelligence briefer for Bill Clinton.

Brennan and Obama have not always agreed on intelligence policy. Brennan supported retroactive legal immunity for telecom companies who helped the government's surveillance programs after 9/11; Obama did not.

Brennan's long association George Tenet and with the CIA during the first few years of the Bush administration may give civil liberties advocates and Congressional Democrats some pause; it is not clear to what degree Brennan participated in or was read into many of the intelligence community's controversial post 9/11 /Iraq programs, including extraordinary renditions and orders that sanctioned coercive interrogation techniques.

Since leaving the government, Brennan has written and lectured extensively about management and reform of the intelligence community. He's also written a provocative paper on Iran, arguing that the next president should quickly appoint a presidential level envoy to the country.

Here's the INSA resignation letter:

Dear Board Members:
It is with regret that I must submit my resignation as Chairman of the Board of INSA; my resignation letter is attached. As stated in the letter, I must relinquish the position of INSA Chairman, as I have committed to working full time on the transition team of President-elect Barack Obama. In order to be compliant with the Presidential Transition Team's code of ethical conduct, I need to separate myself from my for-profit and not-for-profit responsibilities while I am engaged in transition matters. As the INSA by-laws do not allow for a leave of absence by the INSA Chairman, and time does not allow for Board to convene to address the issue, I must tender my resignation.
I have greatly enjoyed my association with INSA over the past 18 months, and I sincerely appreciate and value the collegiality, professionalism, and wisdom shown by the members of the Board.
Respectfully,
John Brennan

Obama's First Weekly Address

Phil Schiliro Will Be Leg. Affairs Point Person At White House

More staffing announcements....

Phil Schiliro, Assistant to the President for Legislative Affairs

Philip M. Schiliro is currently the Director of Congressional Relations for the transition team of President-Elect Barack Obama. Schiliro was a senior advisor to Senator Obama's presidential campaign. He has worked in the United States Congress for more than 25 years. Schiliro served as the Chief of Staff to Representative Henry Waxman and the House Oversight Committee in the House, and the Policy Director for Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle and Staff Director of the Senate Democratic Leadership Committees in the Senate.

Schiliro's known as one of the savviest, smartest chiefs of staffs in DC. It also never hurts to have the gov't. oversight committee chairman's right hand man in your corner...

Richardson Meets With Obama, Too

CBS News and the AP are reporting that New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson met with Sen. Barack Obama today...

Has Hillary Been Offered The Job?

Has Sen. Barack Obama ask Hillary Clinton to serve as his Secretary of State?

The Huffington Post, citing two sources, says yes.

I confess I cannot get sources to tell me this, which means that (a) they've got better sources than I do, which is quite possible, (b) or it isn't true, which is also possible. I know, very helpful. Sorry.

Here's what might be happening:

It is possible that Obama asked Clinton to serve, and that Clinton, hoping that it wouldn't leak, promptly told a bunch of aides, former aides and friends

It is possible that Obama asked Clinton to serve and that the Obama transition / campaign apparatus is parceling out leaks in order to service the news cycle somehow or habituate Democrats to the idea, or even to somehow float a trial balloon for world leaders who happen to be in Washington this weekend.

It is possible that Obama was solicitous; asked Clinton where she might want to serve, and that Clinton was left with the the impression that she had been offered a job.

It is possible that Obama was solicitous and genuinely interested in hearing from Clinton and genuinely wanted to know what she wanted to -- or planned to -- do over the next four years.

It is possible that Obama offered the job to her, that she asked him whether she could take a few days to think about, and that someone downstream found out about it from the principals and leaked it without authorization.

It is possible that Obama was solicitous and genuinely interested in hearing from Clinton and genuinely wanted to know what she wanted to do ... and downstream, based on what Clinton and Obama told people about the meeting, a mistranslation occurred and people became convinced that Obama had offered her something.

Jarrett Lands At The White House

Officially now: Valerie Jarrett will be a senior adviser to President Barack Obama, a transition official confirms.

Jodi Kantor of the New York Times confirms that she'll be assistant to the president for intergovernmental affairs and public liaison, managing the relationship between the White House and the public and the White House and the rest of the government. It's a vital role: Karl Rove's portfolio included oversight of these two positions...

The Obama Transition: Five Ponderables

Aside from the fascinating but voyeristic question of what Barack Obama will do to anger liberals and his core supporters, aside from the speculation about Hillary Clinton...here's the first edition of five things to watch.

1. Which comes first? Climate change legislation or health care? Obama has certainly thought about this, and his advisers don't really agree. Sen. Ted Kennedy is busy crafting what he hopes will be SB-1 (and working quietly with John Dingell in the House to try and introduce legislation jointly.) There are lots of competing health care plans out there...Max Baucus's and Ron Wyden's.... The impetus to do health care early is coming from some of the party's most prominent voices, like the SEIU's Andrew Stern, as well as from a lot of the corporate types that Obama consorts with. On the other hand, Obama has said that we're in a post-consumer spending economy and that the future economic growth will be predicated on establishing energy independence and new sources of energy. With gas prices low, Obama might find it more politically palatable to educate the country on why a cap and trade system will raise gas prices and utility prices in the short term but (in theory) produce dividends over time.

2. China. No one's watching China. We're borrowing more and more; the budget deficit might approach a trillion dollars this year. Tax revenues will only trickle in next year. Megan McArdle asks what would in any other era be a rhetorical question: what if China decided what the U.S. was no longer creditworthy? What if they expect more from the U.S?

Continue reading "The Obama Transition: Five Ponderables" »

Think About Subscribing. Again.

My editors at the Atlantic have never put pressure on me to hawk any product or call attention to anything in the print magazine or even to shill for subscriptions.

That's one of the reasons I thought I'd take it upon myself to ask you, readers of this reported blog on politics, to think about subscribing to the magazine.

It's a privilege to be associated with a publication that was founded as a clarion call to the nation's conscience. A magazine that got Iraq right. A magazine that produced the best argument for Barack Obama and the most serious and thoughtful exposition of John McCain's thinking. An accurate preview of the presidential debates. And those Hillary Clinton stories: my initial thought was... I'm jealous of Josh Green's sources! They even publish my schlock from time-to-time.

I'll concede the point: you can get read the Atlantic for free on the website. But reading the magazine is an experience. And today, with the nexus of the economy focused on Washington, with an administration facing epochal challenges... it's an experience that I think more people should share.

If you haven't checked out the print magazine lately, not only are you missing really terrific, forward-looking articles about everything that matters and a redesign that's pretty freakin' cool, you're missing the cachet that comes with being to say, "I'm a subscriber to the Atlantic," which is even more prestigious than being able to say, "I'm a writer for the Atlantic." (I've tried both in bars.)

And then there's Jeffrey Goldberg's advice column, which reads even better on the printed page than it does on the web.

If you're interested in subscribing, please click here.

What Hillary Clinton Gets Out Of A Cabinet Spot, And Other Thoughts

1. There's was a private meeting. Contrary to what I said earlier, Rahm Emanuel wasn't in the room. He was in DC. But no one was in the room with the principals.

2. The meeting was not a formal interview; the guidance we're getting is that the two discussed the upcoming administration and the ways they can work together.

3. When the reports about Clinton taking the Sec/State job first surfaced two weeks ago, their genesis was largely a circle of Democrats in New York who are angling for their preferred to candidate to become the next senator from New York.. ... .Along these lines: the arguments made by some people close to John Kerry and Bill Richardson that their campaigning for Obama somehow gives them an edge in this process... these arguments are rather absurd given Obama's penchant for "rewarding" people who didn't endorse him, like Joe Biden and Rahm Emanuel.

4. The Obama transition probably doesn't want to make the mistake that the Obama campaign made when Obama sung Clinton's praises, confirmed she'd be on anyone's short list, and then failed to vet her. Some in Clinton's orbit believe that Obama is going out of his way to show respect for Clinton, even to the point of floating her name for a top job and doing his due dilligence this time.

5. Don't believe reports that Max Baucus intends to take the lead role on health care legislation, anticipating a leadership vacuum because of Sen. Ted Kennedy's illness and a possible Hillary Clinton departure. What Baucus wants to do is make sure that his finance committee plays a key role, so he's found a way to invest in the debate.

6. The CW in Washington is that Obama wants Clinton in his cabinet more than Clinton wants to be in the cabinet, the theory being that the moment she steps into the administration, she loses her power base, she loses her Senate seat forever, and she loses her voice on domestic policy. She concedes her political identity. Actually, on policy: uncuriously silent in all this is Sen. Joe Biden, who has strong foreign policy ideas of his own and a bigger platform to share them with Obama. Would Clinton become a glorified PR tool for Obama if she accepted the job? A Powell, rather than a Rice?

How To Tell Your VoteBuilders From Your MyBOs, Your Catalists From Your VANs

My inbox is full of press releases from technology entities claiming that they were responsible for giving the Obama campaign the critical edge in terms of software and data, replete with conflicting claims about who deserves credit for what.

The terms of art and trademarks can be confusing, so here's a guide to the basic Obama technology universe, including who did what.

This stuff is dense, and it gets confusing even to practitioners -- be warned. But it's also the first look at how the Democratic Party as in institution mastered the modern technology of politics.

I'll revise and expand this post as necessary.

The BIG advance for Democrats this cycle is NOT so much the data -- it's how the data was used and who used it.

First, a few definitions.

MyBarackObama.com -- the central online volunteer/social networking/mobilization hub of the campaign. Synonymous to many with the DNC's PartyBuilder, which preceded it. Created by BlueStateDigital, it helped the campaign expand dramatically: 2 million active users, 35,000 affinity groups, etc.

VAN -- a. k. a. "the Van," or just "VAN". Voter Activation Network. A private Boston-based voter file software company responsible for creating VoteBuilder, the active interface used by field organizations doing door-to-door canvasses, event organizing and other volunteer management and mobilization activities.

VoteBuilder -- VoteBuilder is the DNC's voter file; the branded version of the VAN tool that the party gives for free to all the state parties and was also licensed to the presidential primary campaigns. The frontline interface for field organizers.

Catalist -- a private data company run by Harold Ickes and Laura Quinn that has detailed information on 280 million Americans -- just about every registered voter and eligible voter in the United States; how they vote (f they do); where they live; what motivates them. More than 90 groups subscribed to Catalist data in 2008, including the Obama campaign. For the general election, the Obama campaign used Catalist's data to update and backstop the VAN Votebuilders, and to maanage the data flow into and out of their various organizing and fundraising tools.

Catalist appends a unique identifier to each name as it flows through its master national file -- and this allows the various data silos to be synced and in effect "talk to each other." The Obama campaign liked Catalist's ability to rapidly update its data and used Catalist data to keep tabs on its early voting programs. (Note: the RNC keeps its data in-house.)

Strategic Telemetry: Ken Strasma's firm used data from a variety of sources to set targets and create the likely voter model used by the Obama campaign. The exact composition of that model is among the biggest secrets in the political universe. But even more important: all the issue, persuasion and support models that Strasma's firm completed.

Continue reading "How To Tell Your VoteBuilders From Your MyBOs, Your Catalists From Your VANs" »

Obama Met With Clinton

Three independent sources say that President-elect Barack Obama met yesterday with Sen. Hillary Clinton in Chicago.

The meeting took place at Obama's transition offices in the mid-afternoon.

It did not appear on the schedule that's distributed to Clinton staff and handlers.

One knowledgeable source said that the meeting was "not an interview." The source would not elaborate.

~~The source said that chief of staff designate Rahm Emanuel sat in on the session, or or parts of it.~~ (This part of it is not true.)

MORE....

Palin's Emergence

A strategist for a rival potential presidential rival e-mails to express amusement with Gov. Sarah Palin's come one, come all PR strategy:

"Fine with us. Let her be the sacrificial lamb for 2012."

Which means: a lot of the folks who you'd think are angling to run in 2012 are certainly preparing to do so, but they're looking to and thinking about 2016....

Clinton, In Chicago, Has Private Business, Fuels Cabinet Spec

Sen. Hillary Clinton spent the day in Chicago on "private" business, fueling speculation that she met with President-elect Barack Obama to discuss a position in his cabinet, possibly Secretary of State.

Obama spent time today at his transition headquarters and at a nearby federal building. Clinton was not seen at either place, although reporters staking out Obama reported seeing a separate motorcade consisting of three SUVs leave Obama's building's garage. (Post-primaries, Clinton generally travels in a two-car motorcade.)

Philippe Reines, a senior adviser to Clinton, would only say that Clinton had no public schedule and referred questions to the Obama transition team.

"Any speculation about cabinet or other administration appointments is really for President-Elect Obama's transition team to address," he wrote in an e-mail.

Three transition aides refused to comment.

One Democrat who is privy to Sen. Clinton's schedule would not say whether Clinton met with Obama. But this Democrat did say that the speculation that she was under consideration should be taken seriously. And Democratic aides report that Clinton's Senate staff was suddenly very busy and very opaque about the reason for their activity.

That said, there is no reason, other than speculation, to believe that Obama has suddenly warmed to the idea of putting a harsh rival into his cabinet; it's not known whether Obama trusts Clinton; whether he trusts her managerial ability; whether they've reconciled personally; it is certainly true that many former Clinton aides are now working for Obama, including several of Hillary Clinton's top policy advisers.

Clinton would be a formidable nominee despite her primary battles with Obama over the direction and temperament of foreign policy. A member of the Senate Armed Services committee and as First Lady, she is on a first-name basis with world leaders and generals. News of Clinton's trip to Chicago has already made worldwide headlines.

The Secretary of State is also the manager-in-chief of a large government agency, one that has been demoralized during the Bush Administration.

Unknown, at this point, is whether Sen. Joe Biden has weighed on Clinton. Clinton certainly has weighed in on Obama's ability to handle national security crises, running an hard-hitting ad before the Pennsylvania primary that asked whether Obama was ready to take the inevitable "3:00 am" call. Clinton also mocked Obama's assertion that he would meet with leaders of rogue nations without preconditions, although the policy space between the two candidates was less than it appeared.

As the husband to the future Secretary of State, former President Clinton would be forced to disclose details about his private business dealings with other countries, and Obama's vetters would probably ask to see donor records for the Clinton Library Foundation.

Michael Steele Announces For RNC Chairman

Former Maryland Lieutenant Gov. Michael Steele is formally in the race to be chair of the RNC. He will get lots of public attention. But he, at the outset, more popular among Republicans generally than among the Republicans on the Republican National Committee, even though he has more allies on that committee than some of his opponents would like to believe. He has some work to do, but he is a formidable candidate. Here's the press release:

Former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele today announced his candidacy for the position of Chairman of the Republican National Committee.
Steele was clear in his reason for running by saying, "the Republican Party must present a vision for the future of America that relies on our conservative values and core principles. It is wrong to believe the voters have suddenly become liberal. They have just lost any sense of confidence that the Republican Party holds the answers to their problems. We must face the fact that our party has failed in recent years to live up to our own principles -- we have failed to be 'solutions oriented' in addressing the concerns of all Americans."
Steele made his decision to run last weekend but delayed his public announcement until today so that he could call as many RNC members as possible to personally discuss the future of the Republican Party and to seek their support. "I have been working the phones for days now in an attempt to reach the leadership of our Party as quickly as possible", Steele stated. He believes the future of the Party lies with the states and wanted to set the tone from the outset that he will place an emphasis on the members of the Committee to begin rebuilding.
"Having been a member of the RNC, as state chairman of the MD Republican Party from 2000 to 2002, as a County Chairman from 1994 to 2000; I know first-hand the RNC must truly be run as a federation of state parties in order to be effective."
"I believe the leadership of our party must come from its grassroots because the members of the RNC are the best representation of what direction our party needs to take. The state chairmen, national committeewomen, and national committeemen are the party leaders who are closest to the voters - they know what the voters want - they talk to them everyday. I have walked a mile in their shoes; without them you become out of touch with the issues that are important to Main Street Americans."
"I want Republicans to get back to winning elections, not just for the sake of winning, but for the sake of our Country's future. Most Americans today see a Republican Party that defines itself by what it is against rather than what it is for. We can tell you why public schools aren't working, but not articulate a compelling vision for how we'll better educate children. We're well equipped to rail against tax increases; but can't begin to explain how we'll help the poor. The success of our Party's resurgence will come from the states -- from our local leaders and from our Governors."
We must articulate a positive vision for America's future that speaks to Americans' hopes, concerns and needs. It's time to stop defining ourselves by what we are not, and tell voters what we believe, how we'll lead, and where we'll go ... how we Republicans will make America better ... how we'll make their families more prosperous, their children better educated, their parents more secure, and all of us healthier, safer, and stronger. That means we must articulate our vision in the local public square, on TV, on Radio, in the local newspapers, on the internet. With God's help and the guidance of the men and women who give strength to our Republican National Committee, I am prepared to do just that."

Caption This!

Obama's First Post-Election Interview

He'll speak to CBS News's Steve Kroft on Sunday.

The interview will air on 60 Minutes.

Obama Resigns; Who's Next?

"It has been one of the highest honors and privileges of my life to have served the people of Illinois in the United States Senate. In a state that represents the crossroads of a nation, I have met so many men and women who've taken different journeys, but hold common hopes for their children's future. It is these Illinois families and their stories that will stay with me as I leave the United States Senate and begin the hard task of fulfilling the simple hopes and common dreams of all Americans as our nation's next President."

More people e-mail me to ask about the Illinois Senate than about the presidential transition. Many peddle the conspiracy theory that Gov. Rod Blagojevich will appoint himself in order to somehow escape the various federal investigations his administration has spawned. That's not likely. He's also not likely to appoint Valerie Jarrett to the job; she doesn't want it; she'd rather spent the next four-to-eight years with her best buddy, Barack Obama, in the White House. None of the mentioned candidates seem ideal: the biggest knock against Jesse Jackson, Jr. is that in 2010, he'd do poorly "downstate" -- i.e, among white people -- because his name is Jesse Jackson. Iraq War hero Tammy Duckworth has a fan in incoming chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, but Chicago liberals are still smarting from the DCCC's support of Duckworth over Christine Celegis in a 2006 house primary. State Senate President Emil Jones Jr. is a friend of Barack Obama's, but reformers regard him as a traditional Cook County politician. Then there's the problem of the Blago taint: whoever he picks might be associated with him, and the governor, as the New York Times points out today, has a 13% approval rating.

Obama Inflation; Clintonites Invade Virginia

1. Obama inflation has hit at least one growing sector of the economy: the charity circuit. In addition to his duties as transition do-chair, John Podesta, the former Clinton White House chief of staff, is a professor at Georgetown Law. Each year, he donates a home-cooked meal to the GU Law chapter of the Equal Justice Foundation, which provides small stipends to students working in public interest law during their summer breaks. Each year, Podesta's dinner fetches a handsome sum at a live charity auction.... but this year, the home-cooked meal for ten drew Buffett-like interest: students ponied up $3000 for the privilege.

2. When Hillary Clinton dropped out of the race, two of her youngest and most ardent supporters started a national campaign to convince Democrats to "VoteBoth" and pressure Barack Obama into selecting Clinton as his vice president. That didn't work out. But the political bug hasn't left Adam Parkhomenko. The 23-year-old is considering a run for the Virginia House of Delegates in the 47th district, which covers Court House, Clarendon, Virginia Square and other parts of Arlington, VA. Parkhomenko was born in DC but grew up in Virginia; he works now at the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children and is a member of the Washington, D.C. police reserves. (There is no such program in Arlington.) If he runs, he'll run on a platform of keeping the community safe -- and safer for children. Incumbent Al Eisenberg is said to be close to announcing his retirement. Parkhomenko is close friends with Terry McAuliffe, who is running for governor. He's already learned a thing or two about playing defense: here is what he told a friend who asked about his credentials: "If someone wants to ask why haven't i finished college, I think its fair to say that college degrees haven't exactly got things in Richmond moving, let alone traffic in Northern Virginia."

Lieberman's A Scold, Not A Ken Starr

This is a fun distraction, but isn't the bloggy left having a major overreaction to the idea of keeping Lieberman in his current position?

It's true that he'll have subpoena power over the new administration, but the idea that he'll be a serious political player in the coming term is frankly laughable.

If Joe Lieberman wants to wage a one-man crusade against President Obama, he can certainly do so, but it's hard to imagine him winning such a fight, or even making himself look good by losing.

Most likely, Obama will bring Lieberman back into the fold graciously, and he'll vote with the Democrats, and occasionally go on Meet The Press to express his disappointment about something or other.

He seems to enjoy being a scold, but there's no evidence he has the the belly to be Ken Starr.

It's not even clear that he will run for re-election in 2012; he'd certainly face the same kind of primary fight in Connecticut as he did in '06, with the added possibility of Chris Shays running a strong Republican campaign. Joe's pretty boxed in right now.

The RNC Throws A Pie In John McCain's Face

Nine days after the election, the Republican National Committee is no longer interested in being friends with their nominee.

They've filed suit today in courts in Louisiana and Washington, D.C. claiming that the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA)'s ban on soft money donations to parties is unconstitutional.

This isn't one of those arcane debates.

Republican activists, donors, state party chairs, national committee men and women HATED the soft money ban because they (a) well, many of them thought it was unconstitutional but (b) more prosaically, they worried it would give an energized Democratic Party an edge in fundraising and (c) even more pragmatically, the party funded a lot of its stuff with soft money and always had an edge over Democrats. At the time, the RNC's hard dollar donate-by-mail lists were the pride of the industry, but Howard Dean was quickly transforming the campaign finance landscape for Democrats.

John McCain is the man behind the soft money ban...well, so was Fred Thompson, but he won't admit to it. The goal was to break the link in a nexus of potential corruption between corporate interests, union interests and politicians.

Even though other parts of BCRA have been modified, campaign finance reformers point to the soft money ban as an accomplishment; no longer are federal office-holders soliciting massive "unregulated" donations from corporate interests.

One of the reasons why RNC committee members and party hacks had so much trouble accepting McCain was that he was the guy who dismantled the way things were. (The professional conservatives used first amendment arguments and the like -- I have sympathy for these arguments despite my flip tone here.)

Nine days on, McCain is no longer the nominee, Mike Duncan, the RNC chairman, is probably going to run for re-election, and no one is really paying any attention to the RNC's internal doings.

There has literally been no more propitious a moment for the RNC to attempt to challenge the soft money ban. It's kind of a ploy. Why not concentrate on policy? Making up the internet deficit? Modernizing the Voter Vault database? How soon do they expect the courts to rule on this? (This won't be done before the 2009 governors races...sorry.)

Duncan, in a statement, said that the RNC "must have the ability to support state candidates, coordinate expenditures with our candidates and truly engage in political activity on a national level." (This is slightly misleading: the RNC can do all of these things now within limits, which is what Duncan seeks to erase.)

Transition Rumor Patrol: Political Office, Daschle's Role, Clinton For SoS?

The rumors percolating through Washington and an attempt to set the record straight.

Rumor: President-elect Barack Obama's White House will include a political affairs office.

Fact: This is probably true, according to a close-in Obama adviser and a Democrat who has been briefed on this. Though Sen. John McCain promised in his campaign to do away with the office, which manages the president's relationship with all the arms of his party, Obama's team has all but decided to keep the office. It's not clear what role an Obama White House political director will have; its power has ebbed and flowed through the Clinton and Bush years. Currently, the Obama team is debating whether to create an in-house think tank - -a Strategic Initiatives shop -- inside the White Housel; Karl Rove created one for President Bush, and the name itself might prove too controversial.

Rumor: Ex-Sen. Tom Daschle is putting together Obama's health care proposals and is in frequent touch with members of Congress -- Sen. Max Baucus, Rep. John Dingell, Sen. Ted Kennedy -- who are working on the issue.

Fact: This is true.

Rumor: Is Hillary Clinton on the short list to be Secretary of State?

Fact: Unclear. This rumor is not given much credence in Clinton land or in Obama land; it might well be a creation of the press. Or not. What would Joe Biden think about this?

The Klain Dilemma

There's word tonight that Sen. Joe Biden has selected Washington, D.C. lawyer Ron Klain to be his chief of staff, and that may lead to a debate within some Democratic activist circles about just what Barack Obama's administration will look like.

Klain served Biden as counsel on the Senate Judiciary Committee; he was Al Gore's chief of staff for the latter part of the Clinton administration; he joined Steve Case's Revolution start-up; and Kevin Spacey was selected to play him in "Recount," much to the pleasure of Klain's mother.

Klain knows Washington.

So -- wait -- just how Change-y are Ron Klain and Rahm Emanuel? (Klain's Wikipedia entry begins: "He is an influential Washington insider.")

Go back to the campaign though. Obama hasn't ever surrounded himself with outsiders; he was encouraged to run by Tom Daschle and Dick Durbin; Ab Mikva and Newt Minow and Bill Daley were among his top advisors; Because he lives in Chicago, David Axelrod is not a Washington insider, but he is not an outsider by any means, and certainly is an "insider" in the colloquial sense of the phrase. Obama chose Caroline Kennedy and Eric Holder (insiders) to run his vice presidential search; the vetting was conducted by veteran DC lawyers who had done this all before.

Some Obama supporters probably expect more than a nickel's worth of change, but they may be conflating the direction of policy with the peopling of the administration. To be sure, Obama certainly has left the impression that one of the problems with Washington was its people. But he found out early on that he couldn't run a presidential campaign without Democratic insiders playing integral roles. He turned to symbolism (no lobbyist donations) over substance (staying in the public financing system). And then he picked Joe Biden. And now he's turning to people who know how power flows in Washington. It's more evidence that Obama's modus operandi is pragmatism -- (radical empiricism, some call it). The secret is that Obama intends use very pragmatic, temperamentally conservative means to achieve radical -- not in the Bill Ayers sense but in the huge, big, transformative sense -- changes in how Washington works and how it relates to Americans.

I bet that many Obama supporters will give their guy a pass for choosing expertise over novelty in his staff selections. They might give him a pass for being nice to Joe Lieberman. But they will be -- and ought to be -- extra anxious to hold Obama accountable for his process promises -- a transparent White House, a transparent federal government, clear and unambiguous executive orders, etc. The expectations are absurdly high, but they are high because Obama raised them to that level. It will be mighty tempting for Obama aides to suddenly carve out exceptions from these promises because it will be very difficult to run a White House transparently.

Process Over Policy

Another thing that strikes me about Obama's transition.... (that's a heck of a bloggy way to start a paragraph)... is how focused it is on process, rather than on policy.

Yes -- there are policy teams galore being put together, but the bulk of work is focused on the selection of personnel and the staffing and management of the White House. And more importantly, the priorities of the transition team seem to be process-oriented, rather than policy oriented.

Going back to an earlier thought, Obama seems to understand that the way he manages the White House during the first few week is absolutely vital to the smooth functioning of his administration after that.

Saul Anuzis Runs For RNC Chair

Long-rumored, it's now official: Saul Anuzis, the outspoken chair of the Michigan Republican Party and a favorite of the RightRoots, has thrown his beard into the ring.

Anuzis has allies and enemies; he doesn't have the best track record in terms of winning races -- though he was the chairman in Michigan, after all -- but gets credit for his enthusiasm, his PR savvy, and his knowledge of how and why the party needs to change technologically. Here's his platform.

Plouffe Uses Obama List To Help DNC Get Out Of Debt

Obama campaign manager David Plouffe has been hibernating since the election ended, but he popped up today as the author of an e-mail sent to Barack Obama's 10 million-strong list.

Our friends at the Democratic National Committee laid it all on the line to bring change this year.

We've been reviewing the books, and the DNC went into considerable debt to secure victory for Barack and Joe. It took unprecedented resources to staff up all 50 states, train field organizers, and build the technology to reach as many swing voters as possible.

It worked.

But it also left the DNC in debt. So before we do anything else, we need to help pay for this winning strategy.

The party is $15 million in debt, according to a party official.

A Sign Hagel's Not Being Considered For An Obama Position

New rule in Washington: those who are being seriously considered for a cabinet position or a senior-level staff position are keeping very, very, quiet. "Sorry, can't talk," is a response reporters are getting a lot these days.

So this public appearance by Sen. Chuck Hagel caught my attention: he's scheduled to speak next week at what's billed as the "Conflict Prevention and Resolution Forum" at Johns Hopkins in Washington....

Oddsmakers!

Shamelessly stolen from ESPN's Pardon The Interruption.

Odds that President-elect Barack Obama is on the same page with the Democratic Congressional leadership about the feasibility of, the details of, and the timing of, an auto industry bailout: 4.5 to 1.

Odds that President-elect Obama is on the same page with the Democratic Congressional leadership about what do when the Continuing Resolution funding the government expires in March: 1 to 1.

Odds that President-elect Obama finds a way to anger liberals during the transition: 2 to 1. Odds that he does this purposely: 4 to 1.

Odds that the Obama White House keeps an office of strategic initiatives but renames it: 2 to 1.

Odds that Steve Hildebrand becomes the next chairman of executive director of the Democratic National Zero. Eggshells.

Odds that President-elect Obama has already told chief of staff designate Rahm Emanuel to "watch his language". 1.5 to 1.

Percentage of potential White House reporters/producers/correspondents who've asked White House Press Secretary designate Robert Gibbs to dinner: 89%. Percentage of those invitations he'll accept: 5%.

Odds that RNC chairman Mike Duncan seeks, and is re-elected to, a second term. 25%.

Odds that Newt Gingrich becomes the next chair of the RNC: 20%

Odds that the next chairman of the RNC has a Southern accent: 60%.

Odds that National Rifle Association fundraising and membership increase during the Obama administrations: 10 to 1.

Odds that the Politico starts a new publication to beef up its policy coverage. 15%. Odds that the name of that new publication is Policyco. 2%.

Jindal, Huckabee To Iowa

The Des Moines Register reports that Gov. Bobby Jindall and ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee will visit Iowa within the next few weeks.

I'm hearing that Newt Gingrich is also set to touch down in the state before the RNC winter meetings in Washington next month...

The Biggest Lesson Obama Learned From The Clinton Transition

Democrats who survived the transition from George H.W. Bush to William Jefferson Clinton are a bit in awe these days of what Barack Obama is doing and how he is doing it.

Of the Clinton transition, one very senior and longtime Clinton adviser said: "No one would have imagined how quickly it all got screwed up."

In 1992, the only Democrats who had run the White House in the past quarter century had worked for Jimmy Carter -- and Carter's tenure didn't exactly inspire confidence. Clinton had James Carville -- the most brilliant Democratic strategist at the time, and he had a lot of young guns. But he did not have a John Podesta to walk him through what it took to ran the White House, and certainly not a Rahm Emanuel.

The Clinton team thought that the cabinet mattered more than the White House staff, and spent a lot of time arguing, deciding, negotiating over cabinet picks. But the real power and control in Washington is centered in the White House...that was true even in the Bush White House with its high-profile roster of cabinet appointments. (David Addington, anyone?)

The White House staff was not named until just before Christmas -- a mistake. They didn't get their bearings until well into the administration.

One other mistake that Obama seems disinclined to make: surround himself with plenty of Senators. Many senior Clinton White House aides were used to the partisan rough-and-tumble of the House of Representatives - Emanuel, George S., Howard Paster.

The power and custom of bipartisanship was in the Senate, not the House. Mr. Clinton famously never called Pat Moynihan during the transition even though Moynihan was the chairman of the finance committee. Obama, being of the Senate, has a lot of pals, and he has the ultimate dealmaker as a close confidant, ex-Sen. Tom Daschle.

Which leads us back to Rahm Emanuel.

Why did Obama want Emanuel to be chief of staff? Surely his standing in and knowledge of the Congress.

But more importantly: Rahm knows the White House. He knows how to make the White House work.

Obama Transition Clarifies Nunn/Christoper Roles In The Transition

This is the original story, which cites CNN. This is the Obama transition's response:

"Senator Sam Nunn will play an informal senior advisor role throughout the defense transition process. His expertise and the respect he has earned will be invaluable to ensure a smooth transition. Secretary Christopher is deeply respected in the United States and throughout the international community. However, he is not playing a role in the transition process. There's a lot of disinformation out there. We're working hard to put the agency review teams together and expect they'll be announced this week and inside the agencies by the end of the week," said Obama-Biden Presidential Transition Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter.

The Democracy Alliance Is In Town

Notice all those liberal interest groups, think tanks and vendors clamoring for attention this week? It's not just because they want credit for electing Barack Obama.

The Democracy Alliance is in town.

This progressive philanthropist collective has given away more than $100 million over its short lifespan, but its efforts to keep internal deliberations internal have failed.

Nevertheless, the DA is alive and under new management.

Its chairman is Rob McKay, the president of the McKay Family Foundation; (the McKays own Taco Bell.) Its vice chairman is Anna Burger, the SEIU executive vice president and Change to Win president.

It has a website, with boilerplate info.

They'll convene at the Mandarin Oriental hotel today; they'll hear briefings from progressive groups, official Democratic entities and even some Obama advisers -- though it's unclear whether anyone officially associated with the transition will attend.

In MN, Conspiracy Dogs Won't Hunt

http://minnesotarecount.com/

That's a new blog started by Republicans to keep watch on what they call "shenanigans" perpetrated by Democrats as the Minnesota Senate recount proceeds.

They're particularly focused on the way that the results from the re-canvass -- as distinct from the recount -- keep trending in one direction.

But there is precedent: in 2006, Republican Senate candidate Mark Kennedy lost 3,500 votes and Democrat Amy Klobuchar lost only 600. (Historically, the canvass tallies this cycle are more accurate than in the past.)

To be sure -- once the automatic manual hand recount starts -- errors should pretty much cancel each other out, in theory. But in practice, the elderly, the young, and the relatively uneducated tend to cast more undervotes. As Nate Silver notes, mere chance suggests that a Franken win is not beyond the realm of possibility. There's inherent subjectivity in the way election judges will determine intent -- even when there are bright line rules. But even if there's no conspiracy, Franken could pick up enough votes to win. Not the likeliest of scenarios, but with the way the votes are distributed, it could happen.

The proceedings have become very political, and even national Republicans are joining the fray: Mitt Romney's PAC publicly announced a $5,000 contribution to the Coleman recount account today. Regardless of what happens, the Minnesota recount has become a football -- a way for Republican activists to close ranks around what they think (hope) is Democratic corruption.

2012 Players: The LDS Church

By bankrolling opposition to same-sex marriage in California, the LDS church has earned some serious cred in social conservative circles.

And the Prop 8 protesters -- those who are now protesting the church -- are only fueling the impression that when it comes to standing up for "traditional marriage," the Mormon Church is where it's at.

This development has fascinating implications for 2012.

Discuss.

The Podesta Briefing: No Cabinet Appts Before Thanksgiving (?)

Transition co-chair John Podesta held forth with reporters today on a variety of subjects. No huge news lede - although Podesta did say that President Bush, in his private meeting with President-elect Barack Obama yesterday, did not try to link passage of the Columbian free trade agreement to passage of a new economic recovery package. ("There is one president at a time," he said, at least twice.)

Podesta unveiled the transition entity's new ethics policy, which he called the most comprehensive and restrictive ever. Registered lobbyists can only serve if they deregister and can't serve on policy teams that relate to the subjects on which they lobbied. And transition staffers can't lobby for a year after they leave the transition service. Noting that some lobbyists have objected to this - a lot of expertise might be lost and a lot of good people might be bypassed, he said, simply, "So be it."

Podesta said that agency review teams would be in place by November 18, and he hinted not to expect major cabinet appointments before Thanksgiving. As for when Obama would be interviewing potential cabinet appointees, Podesta joked that reporters would just have to get out their binoculars and snoop around.

Continue reading "The Podesta Briefing: No Cabinet Appts Before Thanksgiving (?)" »

Bush-Obama Tension: Who's Really Angry?

What the White House did not appreciate: morning headlines suggesting that President-elect Barack Obama was the man of action, urging President Bush in their Oval Office meeting to support more aid to struggling automakers. And Bush initially balked, those stories said.

What the White House appears to be angry about: notions, in the press, that President Bush suggested that assistance to the auto industry would be contingent upon Congressional reconsideration of the Columbian trade agreement.

Not so, says the White House. They're accusing the Obama transition team of leaking a one-sided account of the meeting. Publicly, the Obama campaign is mum.

Well, surprise. The Obama team has a communications strategy. And surprise: it's favorable to Obama and not favorable to President Bush. And surprise: the Obama economic team considers the perilous state of the auto industry to be the most pressing issue right now. And surprise: passing the trade agreement is something Bush really wants to get done before the end of his term -- he spoke about it during his radio address on Saturday.

("What we did was hardly hardball," an Obama aide says)

Is the White House really angry? Or just frustrated?

Feigning anger might have the consequence of sending a warning to the Obama campaign about negotiations: either they happen in private, where Bush can save face and protect his legacy, or we play hardball too.

Palin's Public Image Suffered

Wonder why Sarah Palin is everywhere? It's not because she IS running in 2012. It's because, in order for her to think about running, she has to change the way that non-Republicans see her. It's a precondition.

Atlantic Media's political director Ron Brownstein, writing for Hotline on Call, has the dirty details:

In the national Election Day exit poll, fully 60% of voters said they did not consider her qualified to serve as president if necessary, while only 38% thought she would be ready to step in. Those figures were daunting enough, but new calculations from the exit poll provided by the NBC News political unit show that outside of the Republican base skepticism about Palin's credentials reached even more imposing heights. While 74% of Republicans thought Palin was qualified, just 35% of independents and 9% of Democrats agreed, the figures (first aired on David Gregory's 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue Monday night) showed. And while 40% of voters without college education thought she could step in, just 35% of college graduates agreed. Fully 63% of college graduates rated her unqualified. Likewise, while Palin scored relatively better in the South-45% of southerners thought she was qualified, and 53% did not-she faced towering levels of resistance in the east and west (where voters by more than two-to-one in each case considered her unqualified.) The Midwest tracked the national numbers, with two-fifths calling her qualified, and three-fifths not.

Understanding The Results: A New NJ Tool

The folks at National Journal are posting cool analysis of the 2008 election results in a box they're calling the "results center." Check it out below, and in my sidebar:

GOPWars: RNC Launches Feel Good Website

http://www.republicanforareason.com/intro.aspx

The Republican National Committee today stepped back into the competition for allegiances today, launching a new website that invites Republicans to declare their support for the party and share the reasons they considered themselves to be Republicans. RNC chairman Mike Duncan is said to want a second term -- his staff insists they haven't discussed the idea with him -- so this might be interpreted as the beginning of Mr. Duncan's volunteer listening tour.

RNC Chair Race: Draft Michael Steele

What a coincidence... Michael Steele wants the job... is making phone calls.... and voila...

http://www.draftmichaelsteele.com/

... appears.

Here's the mission statement:

To rebuild the Republican Party, we need to broaden our outreach to new audiences with messages of conservative principles and values. Ronald Reagan won because he was able to bring a broad coalition of interests together under a 'big tent.'
Michael Steele is the kind of leader that will rekindle Ronald Reagan's legacy and translate it to the current political landscape. As RNC Chairman he will focus on what unites us, not on what divides us.

Obama: The Secrets Of His Success

Now that we've had a week to read the election post-mortems and grab interviews with the staff in the trenches, a picture is emerging of just how the Obama campaign went about winning the election. Not why -- the economy, Bush, etc. -- but how. As best as I can gather, here are the secrets of his success.

1. Practice what you preach. The preach: the neighborhood precinct captains are the linchpins of the ground effort. The practice: let them do the job. Staff didn't talk to voters. They were, in fact, two steps removed from voters. Responsibility was vested in tens of thousands of precinct captains and volunteer leaders; they identified volunteers, supervised canvasses, and reported back to field offices. The Obama campaign had ways of verifying the data that was come in, but in most cases it was accurate; the supervolunteers and precinct captains were empowered and incentivized to do their jobs, and they did them. (Note: the Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign used this same model, as did the McCain-Palin '08 model, but the big difference was...)

2. Scale / Force Of Numbers: No matter how you measure this election, the Obama campaign was able to do so much because it had so much. What ifs abound. What if they were limited to the federal match? What if they weren't able to raise as much money? What if they didn't spend more than $150 million on field? Can this possibly be replicated? Can the Democrats ever again have hundreds of paid staff in states like Ohio weeks before election day? Can they ever find two million active volunteers?

3. Win Bigger / Lose Smaller. That was an Obama field mantra. The campaign opened up a field office in Warren Co., Ohio, where George W. Bush won by nearly 50 points in 2004. Well, Obama lost Warren County... but by 37 points. That's a big improvement. Losing by smaller margins in those smaller counties is how Barack Obama won Ohio. (His margin in Cuyahoga County: 243,000; Kerry's was 221,000...not a big enough difference.)

4. African Americans and the early vote. Problem: black voters habitually, historically distrusted in-person early voting. The solution: fix the problem. Contact black voters early and often about early voting. Spend money to habituate this demographic to early voting.

5. Finding new voters; this one's obvious, but the campaign spent its entire summer finding out who wasn't registered and registering them, and then compiling reams of data about these voters in order to figure out how to target them.

6. Technology (and Google): beyond the obvious, beyond MyBarackObama.com, it was the advances in technology that increased the efficiency of Democratic turnout efforts. For example: the campaign's VoteBuilder software had a turf-cutting tool. Look at a map. Draw a polygon around a neighborhood. And, boom: you could instantly print a "walk list" of voters. This year's version was based on Google Maps which made it infinitely easier to use than the previous versions...

7. Catalist. More on that in my next post, but this Democratic data consortium was a major behind-the-scenes force... UPDATE: Upon further review, I think the DNC's VoteBuilder program also deserves lots of credit, too. More later.

Mike Henry To Manage Macker's Commonwealth Campaign

Former DNC Chairman Terry McAuliffe has tapped Virginia strategist extraordinaire Mike Henry to run his gubernatorial campaign, my colleague Josh Green passes on and I can confirm.

Henry most recently managed Mark Warner's election to the U.S. Senate; before that, he was deputy campaign manager for the Clinton presidential campaign; before that he did independent expenditure work for Democrats in the state.

The Macker officially unveiled the exploratory stage of his campaign this week. His main opponents will be State Sen. Creigh Deeds and delegate Brian Moran, a former prosecutor Northern Virginia, who is chairman of the legislature's House Democratic caucus. His political committee is being run by longtime Virginia strategist Mame Reilly; Democratic strategist Steve Jarding has signed on to help.

Democrats worry that the primary will be divisive; McAuliffe, who currently polls well behind Moran, argues that he'll have the money and the gumption to take on likely Republican candidate Bob McDonnell.

Obama Calls Sen. Lugar, Just To Chat

So President-elect Obama has begun to call members of Congress -- and at least one of them was a Republican.

We know this because Mr. Robert Gibbs, in his first official press briefing since being quasi-appointed as White House press secretary, responded to a question about whether Obama had spoken with Sen, McCain since election night.

Not since election night, Gibbs said.

Then he added: "Again he's making some calls to Congress ....one of the calls he made while we were on the tarmac here was to Sen. Lugar who he obviously has had a relationship with since coming to the Senate and he's you know starting to call members of Congress.

"To Lugar?" he was asked.

Gibbs: "He made three calls one of them was to Lugar."

Don't read anything into this, an Obama aide said tonight, other than the fact that Obama is bipartisan in his telephonic conferences.

Mr. Lugar's name has been floated by his colleagues as a possible Secretary of State in an Obama administration.

Plouffe Won't Be DNC Chairman

It's not clear what David Plouffe will be doing post-election: Ambassador to France? Senator from Delaware? Consultant-in-demand? Speechmaker? Full-time father? White House something or other? Retiree?

But here's one job he won't be taking: chair of the Democratic National Committee.

Plouffe confirmed this in an e-mail today.

(He did not respond to a follow-up e-mail about other jobs he might consider. One presumes that Plouffe has discussed his future with President-elect Obama, so his disavowal of interest in the DNC job is legit.)

Huck For Chip

Yes, that IS ex-Gov. Mike Huckabee making telephone calls to Republicans on behalf of his former campaign manager, Chip Saltsman, as Saltsman prepares to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee.

Sarah Huckabee, Huckabee's chief spokesperson and his daughter, e-mails: "My dad is definitely supporting Chip for RNC chairman. My dad has had the privilege of working with Chip and knows what he is capable of and shares his vision on how to move the party forward and will be working hard to help him get elected." She says her father hasn't started making calls, yet.

As RNC chair, Saltsman could do quite a bit to further Huckabee's national ambitions even in the pose of a neutral arbiter between candidates.

Speaking of the RNC race, a Republican with ties to many members of the national committee e-mails in regards to my contention that Newt Gingrich, should he decide to run, would be the odds-on favorite for the position: "he doesn't the job unless he has carte blanche to do what we wants. And we are never gong to get a committee that does that."

Why 2010 Won't Be Like 1994

As president-elect Barack Obama begins to hash out their agenda, Republicans are predicting Democratic overreach and pointing back to the example of 1994.

But 2010 isn't 1994.

Consider: Bill Clinton had no experience working with the House and Senate; he had to learn on the job and made some early mistakes in this regard. Obama, on the other hand, has a working knowledge of the legislative process, and has a whole host of allies within the Democratic caucus.

In 1994, the realignment of the Southern states, which had happened on the presidential level in 1980, finally broke through on the Congressional level. The trends now are moving the other direction, with moderate Republicans in blue states being replaced by Democrats. (See: Shays, Christopher).

The Clinton White House lost the PR battle against Newt's army and "Harry and Louise". It's hard (though not by any means impossible) to imagine the Obama communications department being similarly outmaneuvered, considering what we've seen from both sides in the current cycle.

More likely, if and when President Obama attempts to pass big-ticket items, the PR offensive coming from the White House on will be on the "shock and awe" side of overwhelming, if the recent campaign is any guide.

Bill Clinton was elected with 43% of the vote. Obama's share of the popular vote is 53%, a clear majority. Psychologically, this matters a great deal to both sides and to the media.

Minnesota Recount: An Update (And Corrected)

A brief update:

Sen. Norm Coleman leads by 206 votes.

The state finishes re-canvassing three million ballots today.

On November 18, the certification board certifies what's been counted.

Then, an automatic manual recount begins.

What's an automatic manual recount, you say?

Warren Stewart of the Verified Voting Foundation lays it out:

"....a "manual" recount specifically required hand counting the ballots - that's in fact the reason it is part of state law. In the scanning process, some ballots are inevitably not counted for a variety of reasons - mis-marked ballots, potential calibration issues on the scanners, dust build-up on the sensors, errors in ballot programming files, or any number of other reasons. This is true of any optical scan voting system, but usually the margins are large enough that such residual votes would not make a difference. However if the margin is such that the tolerance for error could be outcome determinative (in Minnesota its .5%), the state has provided for an automatic hand recount - counting the ballots without the mitigation of software and scanning devices.

The process could take a month.

In theory, errors are likely to cancel each other out. Republicans will be suspicious if Coleman's lead shrinks any further.

The Obama School Conundrum

According to several sources, Michelle Obama begins the Great School Search today with a tour planned at Georgetown Day in.. Georgetown.

Gabriel Sherman has the best gossip about the other educational institutions that might be under consideration.

New Leadership In Both Parties By February

Both the Republican National Committee and the Democratic National Committee will turn over their leadership ranks in a few months, and though only one of the races will competitive, the consequences for both parties will

RNC chairman Mike Duncan is thinking about running for re-election, but he'll face a slate of at least six potential candidates. The RNC will elect its new chair at the party's winter meeting in DC just after the inauguration.

DNC chairman Howard Dean has long hinted that one term would be enough for him; he does not plan to ask the Obama team to keep him on. So -- the DNC will vote, also the week of the inauguration, for its new leader.

By tradition, Dean would endorse the person he wants to succeed him, but by an even more powerful tradition, the president gets to put his stamp on the DNC. Will Dean defer to the Obama folks? He already has, aides say.

The bigger question: what happens to the DNC? Does it become an extension of the White House? Does it retain a measure of independence? How much control does David Axelrod wish to assert over the party?

The party's different these days. Technologically, it's caught up -- or even more advanced than -- the RNC. The DNC chair could be the donor-janitor-in-chief, the 2012 campaign manager in waiting, or simply the keeper of the list.

Here's betting that some folks will petition Dean to stay on....

What Happens To MyBO

A few days before the election, Obama's national field director sent an e-mail to tens of thousands of Arizona campaign supporters. Its message was urgent. The race in Arizona is tight; we need your help. If you can volunteer, please visit our website and sign up.

One of those e-mails was forwarded to me, and I duly posted it, deleting the name of the recipient in order to give him some anonymity.

About an hour later, an Obama campaign aide sent me an e-mail, jokingly informing me that they knew my source.

How's that possible, I asked?

Well, all the e-mails were coded. Every time someone clicked through that particular e-mail to the volunteer page, the Obama campaign servers registered whose e-mail had generated the hit.

This was a small but telling example of how the Obama campaign married technology and the psychology of incentives to create a very sophisticated universe of volunteers. They'd taken advantage of a whole new media ecology and built a set of tools to harness the energy of millions of people who were traditionally downstream from political appeals.

MyBarackObama.com, or MyBO, was organized around three principles:

1. Enthusiasm -- Democratic enthusiasm, enthusiasm for the Obama campaign was there, but it had to be stroked and perpetuated;

2. Technology -- text messaging, web 2.0 social networking, geocoding and tagging, etc

3. Approach -- what an Obama aide called "accountable empowerment" -- it allowed volunteers to keep track of what they were doing, allowed their friends to see who was on top, gave them rewards, and more.

Most importantly, MyBO allowed like minded people to contact like minded people, to self-organize into what Republicans call affinity groups.

Continue reading "What Happens To MyBO" »

Palin To Speak At RGA Event

Just got the schedule for the Republican Governors Association conference later this week in Miami. A non-surprise-surprise: Gov. Sarah Palin is now speaking, in public, and she'll give a press avail:

Wednesday, November 12^th 1:15-1:45 p.m. Governors Luncheon featuring Governor Tim Pawlenty.

Wednesday, November 12^th 2:00 - 3:30 p.m. Plenary Session I: "An in-depth evaluation of the 2008 election cycle." Featured speakers include Governor Bobby Jindal, Governor Haley Barbour, Governor John Hoeven, Byron York, Dr. Frank Luntz, and Dr. William Bennett.

Wednesday, November 12^th4:10 - 5:00 p.m. Press Roundtable featuring Ambassador Rob Portman, former eBay CEO Meg Whitman, Gov. Tim Pawlenty, and Gov. Jon Huntsman Jr

Wednesday, November 12^th 7:30 - 8:30 p.m. Welcome Reception featuring Governor Haley Barbour.

Thursday, November 13^th 9:40 - 10:00 a.m. Press avail with Governor Sarah Palin.

Thursday, November 13^th 10:00 - 11:45 a.m. Plenary Session II: "Looking Toward the Future." Remarks by Governor Sarah Palin. Featured speakers include General Tommy Franks (U.S. Army-Ret.), Rep. Mike Pence, Dr. William Kristol, Governor Tim Pawlenty, Governor Mark Sanford.

Thursday, November 13^th 12:30 Press Roundtable: Discussion with Governors Charlie Crist, Rick Perry, Haley Barbour, and Mark Sanford.

Thursday, November 13^th 7:00 - 9:00 p.m. State Dinner: Speeches delivered by Governor Rick Perry and Governor Charlie Crist.

###

RNC Chairman's Race: Newt And Nussle

The Politico's Mike Allen on Jim Nussle's run for RNC chairman:

This White House's formal link to the GOP's post-Bush era? Jim Nussle, director of the Office of Management and Budget, plans to run for chairman of the Republican National Committee. As a Republican House member from Iowa, he was part of the Gingrich transition team that ushered in the "Contract with America." He was the GOP nominee for Iowa governor in 2006, and retired from Congress in 2007. Nussle has to lay low for now because he's working on the transition. Attribute all this to Nussle sources.

Mr. Nussle is also very close to Rudy Giuliani, who hasn't lost his appetite for national office...

And Newt Gingrich is quite happy to say that, yes, if the PEOPLE demand it, he will run for chairman of the RNC.

If Newt runs, he's the odds-on-favorite to win.

No Cabinet Announcements This Week

Just FYI:

Do not expect any cabinet appointments this week from the Obama transition, a transition aide says.

There will be staff announcements, however...

Obama Apologizes To Reagan

"President-elect Barack Obama called Nancy Reagan today to apologize for the careless and off-handed remark he made during today's press conference. The President-elect expressed his admiration and affection for Mrs. Reagan that so many Americans share and they had a warm conversation," said President-elect Obama Transition Team Spokesperson Stephanie Cutter.

And they said Obama was being extra cautious at today's press conference?

Data That Helps Explain The Election: 68 million v. 30 million

At the National Press Club on Wednesday, RNC chairman Mike Duncan crowed about how the Republican National Committee and the McCain campaign had contacted 30 million individual voters directly. (This figure includes those robocalls.)

Impressive.

But the Obama campaign / Democratic National Committee turnout program contacted more than double that amount -- about 68 million, according to a Democratic officials.

Rumor Patrol: Romney Camp Spreading Palin Stories?

Rumor: Aides and advisers to Mitt Romney are responsible for spreading most of the anti-Palin stories that have been going around; during the campaign, they pressured reporters to look into reports of tension between McCain and Palin factions.

Analysis: As one of the first reporters to sense these ill-winds, I don't see an organized conspiracy. The first people with whom I spoke had no connection to Romney's campaign whatsoever -- they were longtime McCain advisers and aides... so...they didn't much like Mitt Romney. When Palin was first selected, of the five Romney aides/advisers I remember contacting, three had positive impressions and two had mixed impressions.

Now, as the campaign progressed, there were people who can be fairly described as being Romney advisers who began to criticize Palin and pass along what their Republican friends were telling them. But so did consultants, strategists and activists representing every potential 2012 candidate. And other Romney advisers continued to praise her.

Trendy, self-exonerating flip: Now -- it bothers Team Romney that this idea has spread so widely. Take the truth out of it for a moment; Palin is the most popular figure in the Republican Party right now, and if you want a future in that party, you can't be seen as spreading gossip about her.

Metaflip: Bottom line: Mitt Romney's world is big. Many Republicans consider themselves to be part of it. That's a credit to their faith in the guy. But it's not too big; that is -- if the anti-Palin fires were being spread mostly by Romney folks, political reporters would know about it, and they'd write about it. Objection: Many reporters are in the tank and want to protect Romney and their sources: Overruled: since when are reporters in Mitt Romney's tank?

Rumor Patrol: Plouffe For Senate?

Rumor: David Plouffe, Barack Obama's campaign manager, plans a run for Senate in his native state of Delaware?

Analysis: Be very skeptical. That said, some of his friends are throwing the idea around, but they're doing it without his knowledge or approval.

They feel he's gotten less credit than he deserves -- and Plouffe isn't one to ask for credit.

Plouffe did not respond to an e-mail seeking comment; he told Chris Cillizza he hadn't had a single conversation about this with anyone.

Liveblogging Obama's Presser: Q and A

Nedra Pickler gets the first question...what can the president actually do to stimulate the economy?

Obama: "We have a current financial crisis that is spilling out into the rest of the economy...we've taken some action so far...more action is undoubtedly needed... we are going to need to see a stimulus package passed either before or after the inauguration.... we are going to have to focus on jobs..."

Lee Cowan asks about the timing of a stim pack

Obama: "If it does not get done in a lame duck session, it will be the first thing I can get done as president of the United States."

Jake Tapper asks about Ahmadinejad's congrats; how long before Obama sends envoys to Iran, Cuba, etc.

Obama: "I am aware that the letter was sent. Iran's development of a nuclear weapon ... is unacceptable...we have to mount an international effort to prevent that from happening...I will be reviewing the letter and we will respond appropriately. It's only been three days since the election. How we approach and deal a country like Iran is not something we should do in a knee-jerk fashion.

Chip Reid asks if Obama will challenge Bush in public.

Obama: "I'm sure that, in addition to taking the tour of the White House, there's going to be a substantive discussion between me and the president... I'm going to go in there with a sense of bipartisanship."

Obama on his cabinet picks: basically, festina lente.

Lynn Sweet tells Obama she hurt her shoulder running to Grant Park. "Here's my question: I'm wondering what you're doing to get ready.... what books you might be reading? Have you decided on a public or private school for your daughter..."

Obama: "In terms of speaking to former president, I've spoken to all of them... I don't want to get any Nancy Reagan thing and do any seances.... re-read Lincoln's writing...as for the dog... Malia is allergic, so it has to be hypoallegernic...we have a preference to get a shelter dog..Michelle will be making [decisions about schools] a little later."

Continue reading "Liveblogging Obama's Presser: Q and A" »

Liveblogging President-Elect Obama's Press Conference

Obama:

Until January 20th of next year, that government is the current administration....Immediately after I become president, I'm going to confront this crisis head on....this morning, I met with member of my transition economy advisory board...they will help to guide the work of my transition team, working with Rahm Emanuel, my chief of staff, in developing a strong set of policies to respond to this crisis.....first...we need a rescue plan for the middle class...invest in effort to create jobs....extension of unemployment insurance benefits...a fiscal stimulus plan that will jumpstart economic growth is long overdue.... we have to address the spreading impact of the financial crisis on the other sectors of the economy...small businesses and state and municipal governments....[Re: the auto industry:] I would like to see the administration do everything it can to [expedite] the retooling assistance [that's already been provided]

...

We we will review this administration's... implementation of the [bailout/rescue].....

...

Some of the choices we will make are going to be difficult... but American is a strong and resilient country...and I know we will succeed, if we put aside partisanship and politics and work together as one nation.

Seating Chart Clues; Who Gets To Sit Next To Obama?

Transition Economic Advisory Board Meeting Seating Chart.jpg

This is totally spurious and fun at the same time: check out the seating chart for Sen. Obama's economic advisory committee meeting....

Paul Volcker is seated to Obama's left; Larry Summers gets to the right of chief of staff Rahm Emanuel....

Obama v. Congress: The Auto Industry Bailout

Perhaps the first real test of Barack Obama's political capital will be how aggressively he pushes to give the auto industry more government help.

On CNBC this morning, Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA) said that Congress shouldn't bail out companies that are poorly run, and said he would prefer that they go into bankruptcy and using the "bailout" money to retrain the workers.

His opinion probably reflects the opinions of many centrist Democrats. On the stump, Obama essentially vowed to save the auto industry come hell or Hondas.

Of course, the way for Congress to avoid a confrontation with President Obama is to deal with the auto industry before Obama becomes president.

The emerging Republican view is similar to that of centrist Ds. Mitt Romney, speaking to Fortune, encapsulates it: "Before the government issues loans to the auto industry, as has been authorized by Congress, it should insist on seeing credible and independent strategies that will return the companies to long-term sustainability. Government should not finance ongoing losses and declining market shares

In E-mail, McCain Thanks Supporters

Just sent to McCain supporters:

Cindy and I would like to take a moment to thank you for your loyal and steadfast support during the course of this campaign. Governor Palin, her husband Todd, our families, friends and campaign staff extend our deep appreciation for your tireless dedication, support and friendship.

It is the end of a long journey and your support through the ups and downs has meant more to us than you may ever know.

Although we were disappointed with the results, we must move beyond this campaign and work together to get our country moving again.

It is our sincere hope that you will join us in putting our country first and continue to work to keep our nation safe, free and prosperous.

We urge you to join us in not just congratulating Senator Obama, but offering our next president our good will and earnest effort to find ways to come together as a nation. Whatever our differences may be, we are all fellow Americans.

We are truly blessed to live in this great country and call ourselves Americans, and we will forever be her loyal servants.

Today, let there be no reason now for any American to fail to cherish their citizenship in this, the greatest nation on Earth.

With warm gratitude,

Cindy and John McCain

Mark Foley Prepares For First Interview...

The former congressman and 2006 Republican bête noire will appear on NBC News's Today Show next Wednesday. (or the Wednesday after next..)

That's according to a Florida source who is close to the former congressman....

Mr. Foley told friends that he wanted to wait until after the elections in 2008 so to have as little effect as possible on the current political situation.

He's sober, he's not blaming his problems on alcohol, he's kibitzing about Florida politics, and he's eager to speak...

GM In Crisis

Topic A as Obama meets his economic team is likely to be the imminent collapse of General Motors.

Basically, GM might run out of cash before the end of the year.

GM SAYS UAW RETIREE HEALTH PLAN WON'T EXIST AFTER JAN. 1 2010

GM SAYS ESTIMATED LIQUIDITY IN 2008 TO APPROACH MINIMUM NEEDED

What Turnout Increase?

Las Vegas billionaire/Freedom's Watch financier Sheldon Adelson is not having a great week; nemesis Rahm Emanual is having one of his best weeks ever.

In Minnesota, Al Franken's vote deficit is 236.

John McCain's Nebraska state director all but concedes Nebraska's second congressional district electoral vote to Barack Obama.

So turnout, overall either increased a tiny bit or stayed the same as a percentage of those eligible to vote. Democratic turnout increased by two percent; Republican turnout decreased by one percent; Karl Rove's theory of the electorate vindicated? Maybe. The distribution of turnout increases and decreases is uneven, and what might turn out (sorry) to be the story of this election is the significant Republican hand-sitting in places like Indiana matched with large inter-demographic increases by Barack Obama.

Maybe the fact that Alaskans had mixed feelings about voting for their beloved convicted felon is responsible for what seem to be significant turnout declines in the state. Maybe Dem turnout was down because of the lack of a competitive presidential race. That, or Republicans are trying to steal the election. (Only to turn around and help vote to kick Ted Stevens out of office again? How does that make sense?)

Obama's Economic Transition Team

At 1:30 ET today, President-elect Obama and Vice President-elect Biden will meet with their economic transition team. Members of this team will be incorporated into next week's White House economic summit. The team also likely includes the eventual Treasury Secretary.... hmm...

·         David Bonior (Member House of Representatives 1977-2003)
·         Warren Buffett (Chairman and CEO, Berkshire Hathaway)-will participate via speakerphone
·         Roel Campos (former SEC Commissioner)
·         William Daley (Chairman of the Midwest, JP Morgan Chase; Former Secretary, U.S. Dept of Commerce, 1997-2000)
·         William Donaldson (Former Chairman of the SEC 2003-2005)
·         Roger Ferguson (President and CEO, TIAA-CREF and former Vice Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve)
·         Jennifer Granholm (Governor, State of Michigan)
·         Anne Mulcahy (Chairman and CEO, Xerox)
·         Richard Parsons (Chairman of the Board, Time Warner)
·         Penny Pritzker (CEO, Classic Residence by Hyatt)
·         Robert Reich (University of California, Berkeley; Former Secretary, U.S. Dept of Labor, 1993-1997)
·         Robert Rubin (Chairman and Director of the Executive Committee, Citigroup; Former Secretary, U.S. Dept of Treasury, 1995-1999)
·         Eric Schmidt (Chairman and CEO, Google)
·         Lawrence Summers (Harvard University; Managing Director, D.E. Shaw; Former Secretary, U.S. Dept of Treasury, 1999-2001)
·         Laura Tyson (Haas School of Business, University of California, Berkeley; Former Chairman, National Economic Council, 1995-1996; Former Chairman, President's Council of Economic Advisors, 1993-1995)
·         Antonio Villaraigosa (Mayor, City of Los Angeles)
·         Paul Volcker (Former Chairman, U.S. Federal Reserve 1979-1987)

Young Republicans Push Internet Organizing Priority

A group of prominent and ideologically diverse young Republicans are banding together to call for dramatic change within the party.

Tonight, they're launching a website, www.rebuildtheparty.com, and will ask RNC chairman candidates to support their platform, which puts a premium on Internet organizing and technology.

The signatories include Patrick Ruffini, a former senior Republican official; Erick Erickson of Red State; Phil Musser, the former executive director of the Republican Governors Association, Republican fundraiser and former Jeb Bush aide Justin Sayfie, and others.

All of them are under 40; they have affiliations with different prospective 2012 presidential candidates; they had different opinions of Sarah Palin; they're interested in building a permanent grassroots volunteer infrastructure (apart from state parties if necessary) and candidate recruitment.

Ruffini said the group will launch a tool at ideas.rebuildtheparty.com "for people to suggest their own strategies for the RNC and for the community to vote these up or down."

Here's an excerpt from their platform; you can read the full document after the jump:

The challenge is daunting, but if we adopt a strongly anti-Washington message and charge hard against Obama and the Democrats, we will energize our grassroots base. Among other benefits, this will create real demand for new ways to organize and route around existing power structures that favor the Democrats. And, you will soon discover, online organizing is by far the most efficient way to transform our party structures to be able to compete against what is likely to be a $1 billion Obama re-election campaign in 2012.

Our near loss in the 2000 election sparked the 72 Hour program, after a brutal realization that we were being out-hustled in GOTV activities in the final days. Our partial success in the 2000 election didn't blind us to the need for change, and our eyes must be wide open now. Barack Obama and the Democrats' ability to build their entire fundraising, GOTV, and communications machine from the Internet is the #1 existential challenge to our existing party model.

....

This goal seems daunting, but it forces us to think creatively about creating the sharpest, most compelling messages that will make people want to join us by the millions. If Newt Gingrich and T. Boone Pickens could each build an army of 1.4 million activists around energy, and Barack Obama could recruit 3 million to receive his VP selection by text message, then we know this is possible. If anything, given where the Internet will be in 2 or 4 years, we are low-balling the potential to create a new Republican online army.
Hold campaigns and local parties accountable. As important as it is that we invest in new technology at the national level, we must remember that the RNC's primary objective is to win races state by state and district by district, not build up its own brand.

To pursue this essential mission, individual campaigns must be held accountable for the number of emails they collect and the money they raise online. As much high-level attention must be paid to candidates' online strategy as with the number of voter contacts made into a particular district or if the right media strategist is working the race. We must end a sense of dependence on the RNC at all levels -- in which the RNC simply turns over its lists -- and set goals that the campaigns must find creative and aggressive ways to meet:

In target 2010 Congressional races, we recommend setting a standard of at least 5,000 in-district online activists recruited, and a minimum of $100,000 raised online.

Continue reading "Young Republicans Push Internet Organizing Priority" »

Axelrod's New Role

Though David Axelrod isn't confirming it himself, friends say that Obama has asked him to be an assistant to the president and senior adviser.

Assistant to the president is a very coveted post with quasi-institutional prerogatives; assistants can (if the Obama administration chooses to continue the practice) pop in on the president whenever they want, and they're given review privileges over everything that goes out in the president's name.

Why Rahm: A Message To -- And From -- The Center

Why Rahm, really?

Advisers say that Obama has sent a not-so-subtle message to Congress: President-Elect Obama will not cede much agenda-setting ground to liberals. While outside Democrats are interpreting Emanuel's selection as an institutional message for Nancy Pelosi, Obama advisers concede that Emanuel's ties to key party centrists and blue dog Democrats will be criticial to smoother relationships between the executive and legislative branches. (Emanuel is more liberal than these centrists, but he's not nearly the ideologue that people seem to think he is.)

Behind the scenes, Obama himself and many key aides have been making overtures to conservative Democrats. These Democrats want budget off-sets included with every expensive piece of legislation that Obama sends to the Hill; at the very least, they want the White House to incorporate centrists in decision-making.

Obama is keenly aware of how President Clinton's relationship with Congress was fraught with tension and mistrust; how Clinton allowed Congress to temper some of the Arkansan's more pragmatic, less ideological instincts early on.

That said, Obama and Pelosi get along well. And back in 2006 Harry Reid was one of those quietly urging Obama to run.

Importantly, Barack Obama doesn't seem to be too interested in everyone else's opinion of how he's supposed to run his White House. This can only be a good thing (unless you're a Republican praying for Obama to make a fool of himself). It seems that, much like with the campaign, he has some long term goals and isn't worried about engaging in small fights over things like his West Wing staffing choices.

Other nuggets:

Ron Klain and Mark Gitenstein are said to be top candidates to be Vice President-elect Biden's chief of staff. Klain served as Al Gore's chief of staff and is familiar to Americans for his role in the 2000 Florida recount. Gitenstein is a long-time Biden adviser.

It's Official: Rahm

Below are statements from President-elect Barack Obama and Congressman Rahm Emanuel on Congressman Emanuel being named White House Chief of Staff

Statement from President-elect Barack Obama
"I am pleased to announce that my good friend, Congressman Rahm Emanuel, has agreed to serve as my White House chief of staff. I announce this appointment first because the Chief of Staff is central to the ability of a President and Administration to accomplish an agenda. And no one I know is better at getting things done than Rahm Emanuel.
"During his seven years in the Clinton White House, Rahm was the point man on some of the most difficult issues, from the passage of landmark anti-crime legislation to the expansion of health care coverage for children. In just six years in Congress, he has risen to leadership, helping to craft myriad important pieces of legislation and guide them to passage. In between, Rahm spent several years in the private sector, where he worked on large and complicated financial transactions. That experience, combined with his service on the committees on Ways and Means and Banking, have given Rahm deep insights into the challenging economic issues that will be front and center for our Administration. Though Rahm understands how to get things done in Washington, he still looks at the world from the perspective of his neighbors and constituents on the Northwest Side of Chicago, who work long and hard, and ask only that their government stand on their side and honor their values. The son of an Israeli immigrant, Rahm shares a passionate love for this country, and has devoted much of his life to its cause.
"His decision to accept this position is a wonderful reflection of that commitment, for it is not easy to give up the significant position he holds today as chair of the House Democratic conference. The post he has accepted also will require more time away from Amy, and their children, Zach, Ilana and Leah, which I know is painful and difficult.
"I appreciate his friendship. And I, and all Americans, should be grateful that Rahm is once again answering his country's call," said President-elect Barack Obama.

Statement from Congressman Rahm Emanuel
"I know what a privilege it is to serve in the White House, and am humbled by the responsibility we owe the American people. I'm leaving a job I love to join your White House for one simple reason - like the record amount of voters who cast their ballot over the last month, I want to do everything I can to help deliver the change America needs. We have work to do, and Tuesday Americans sent Washington a clear message - get the job done.
"I have loved the time I spent in the House, both the successes and the setbacks, and I am grateful to the people of the Fifth Congressional district who sent me to work on their behalf. I was proud to serve on a leadership team with Speaker Pelosi, Majority Leader Steny Hoyer and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn. They have taught me invaluable lessons--even a few lessons in humility, believe it or not.
"I want to say a special word about my Republican colleagues, who serve with dignity, decency and a deep sense of patriotism. We often disagree, but I respect their motives. Now is a time for unity, and Mr. President-elect, I will do everything in my power to help you stitch together the frayed fabric of our politics, and help summon Americans of both parties to unite in common purpose.
"It has been almost 150 years since Americans turned to a proud son of Illinois as their President. Early in his first term, Abraham Lincoln said, "The dogmas of the quiet past are inadequate to the stormy present. The occasion is piled high with difficulty, and we must rise with the occasion. As our case is new, so we must think anew, and act anew."
"Today, once again, our country is piled high with difficulty, and Americans have put their trust in President-elect Barack Obama and Vice-President-elect Joe Biden to think and act anew. And Mr. President-elect, I promise that your White House will do everything in our power to rise to the occasion," said Congressman Rahm Emanuel.

First Pooch Lobbying Begins

Here's Obama personnel lobbying/jockeying-for-position that I'll bet even
Rahm Emanuel never conceived off: Lobbying to be first pooch...

Lindsey Graham Praises Emanuel Selection

In a statement:

"This is a wise choice by President-elect Obama.
"Rahm knows Capitol Hill and has great political skills. He can be a tough partisan but also understands the need to work together. He is well-suited for the position of White House Chief of Staff.
"I worked closely with him during the presidential debate negotiations which were completed in record time. When we hit a rough spot, he always looked for a path forward. I consider Rahm to be a friend and colleague. He's tough but fair. Honest, direct, and candid. These qualities will serve President-elect Obama well.
"Rahm understands the challenges facing our nation and will, consistent with the agenda set by President-elect Obama, work to find common ground where it exists. I look forward to working with him in his new position and will continue to do everything I can to help find a pathway forward on the difficult problems facing our nation."

Reid and Lieberman Meet

And The Senate Majority Leader just released this statement:

"Today Senator Lieberman and I had the first of what I expect to be several conversations. No decisions have been made. While I understand that Senator Lieberman has voted with Democrats a majority of the time, his comments and actions have raised serious concerns among many in our caucus. I expect there to be additional discussions in the days to come, and Senator Lieberman and I will speak to our caucus in two weeks to discuss further steps."

What Obama Sees In Rahm

Someone who can call bullshit.

Per an aide: "Smart, totally loyal, great at getting hard legislative work done, tough, experienced. And he likes him."

Per another: Obama "doesn't want yes-men or yes-women."

Bottom line: Obama is clearly picking a team based on who he's like to have in the foxhole with him; he must be expecting to spend some time there.

What Rahm's Selection Means... To Rahm

He's the first chief of staff who'll universally be known by a single name: Rahm.

Why would Rahm take the job?

Didn't he want to be Speaker?

Well, looks like the Speaker's job is in someone else's hands..

And actually, Rep. Emanuel wants to be mayor of Chicago down the line....

The biggest reason why he wouldn't have taken it was his family; he really doesn't want to move them to Washington. But when the President-elect asks for something, it is hard to say no.

Rahm The Boss: More Reaction

I checked in with John Lapp, who ran the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee under Emanuel.

"Rahm never stops pushing you and himself. He wants the best," Lapp said.

"And will accept nothing short of it. From those above and below him. He never gives up. One thing that is rarely discussed is Rahm's intense loyalty and friendship. I think he worries it would be seen as a weakness. But he cares deeply for his friends and family. He always had my back. And I had his. I pity the Republicans and Democrats who get in his way. It isn't pleasant. Tough love is who he is."

Early Republican Reaction To Rahm

"This is an ironic choice for a president-elect who has promised to change Washington, make politics more civil, and govern from the center," Minority Leader John Boehner tells Congress Daily.

And the RNC is ready with this bit of oppo

OBAMA'S BROKEN PROMISE

After Promising Change, Obama Selects Hyper-Partisan Wedded To Special Interests As His White House Chief Of Staff

More after the jump.

Continue reading "Early Republican Reaction To Rahm" »

What Rahm's Selection Means

Emanuel and Obama met yesterday in Chicago, along with several other members of the Obama team, including Valerie Jarrett, Bill Daley, John Podesta, Peter Rouse and personell chief Jim Messina.

Obama plans to hire several other deputy chiefs of staff to fulfill policy, operations and strategic planning functions.

The selection of Emanuel will not be universally lauded. Extremely confident, self-possessed and whip-smart, drama surrounds him whether he goes. But he gets things done, and Obama has come to see him as an honest broker of information and talked with him almost every day during the election.

Emanuel can be a tough boss to work for. He's occasionally a yeller. He is also, as yelling boss can be, extraordinarily considerate and rewards competency. His management style breeds loyalty, but it is hard-edged. He has children now, and he has mellowed.

As chief of staff, Emanuel could function as the information gatekeeper, deciding who gets to see Obama and for how long. He could micromanage the personnel process. He could, like Andrew Card, step back and try to manage the White House staff like an orchestra. But in all probability, Rahm will spend a lot of his time on the phone with senior Democrats in Congress, cajoling them, pleading with them, screaming at them. He has juice. He also, at least until now, has relationships with many top Washington journalists. WIll he continue to be a background voice for them, steering the narrative? Will he go to ground?

What does Rahm's selection say about Obama? Obama won't be afraid to step on toes. He's going to be very aggressive in pursuing his agenda. He won't shrink from confronting Congress. And he will expect extreme competence from his staff, from the chief on down.

Rahm Accepts.. Also: Gibbs

From various transition sources:

After unusually public agonizing, Rep. Rahm Emanuel has accepted Barack Obama's offer to be his chief office.

And Robert Gibbs, the senior strategist, auditioned successfully for any number of spots; he has apparently settled on being White House press secretary.

November 2008 Archives

November 25, 2008