Cabinet speculation: the succession factor

Upon hearing the other night that AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano was the likely DHS pick, my first thought was about the curiosity that Obama just handed Republicans a governor's office. Arizona has no lieutenant governor, and so Napolitano's successor, if and when the appointment happens, would be the Republican secretary of state, Jan Brewer.

There are a few similarly interesting (at least I find them interesting) scenarios in other states if Pres-elect Obama selects certain incumbent governors and senators. Here are a few, using some of the names on the speculation list compiled by my friends at NBC:

Kansas and Montana: Both Govs. Kathleen Sebelius and Brian Schweitzer chose Republicans to be their running mates - Sebelius in her '06 re-election, and Schweitzer in his initial '04 run. Mark Parkinson a Democrat now, but he used to be the Kansas Republican Party chairman, switching parties eventually amidst the turmoil within the state GOP. Schweitzer chose John Bohlinger as his running mate after a public search in which he sought applications from across the state.  The two were re-elected solidly in the Democratic column.

Rhode Island and Maine: Jack Reed for Defense would give Republican Gov. Don Carcieri a chance to flip a Senate seat in Rhode Island by appointing a Republican. Gov. John Baldacci could even things out by appointing a fellow Democrat in Maine to replace Sens. Olympia Snowe or Susan Collins, should either be picked.

Michigan and New Mexico: If either Bill Richardson or Jennifer Granholm gets tapped, the Democratic lieutenant governors would take over in both states. The storyline here would be that this scenario potentially helps the party hold the seats beyond 2010 by giving the number twos the advantage of running as the incumbent in two years.

Pennsylvania: The death last week of Lt. Gov. Catherine Baker Knoll makes an Ed Rendell Cabinet pick less likely, as Ben Smith pointed out last week. Republican Joe Scarnati is now the lt. gov. under state law, and Democrats wouldn't want to give him another promotion anytime soon.

Virginia:  Tim Kaine was the first governor outside of Obama's home state to endorse the Illinois senator. If he were to earn a Cabinet seat, that would hand the governorship to Republican Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling for the final year of the term. It would complicate things even for the GOP, since state Attorney General, Bob McDonnell was preparing to be the party's nominee for governor next year. Might Bolling run to stay as gov instead of seeking re-election, as he plans now? And does any of it help if Terry McAuliffe were the Democratic nominee.

New Jersey: Jon Corzine left the Senate before his first term ended to run for governor. Now, he could potentially leave the governor's office with a year left in his term to head Treasury.  New Jersey still doesn't have a lieutenant governor (though that changes soon), so Senate President Dick Codey would again become "acting governor," as he did in 2004 when Jim McGreevey resigned. Some New Jersey Democrats might not mind this scenario, at least those who think that the popular Codey might actually be a stronger candidate in 2009 against a likely strong Republican challenger in Chris Christie.

- Mike Memoli