Four years from now

As Barack Obama prepares for his third press conference in as many days, it is still remarkable even as we head into the holidays to think that just four years ago, the president-elect was a senator-elect, heading from Springfield to the Senate. Yes, it's become trite, but what a difference four years makes.

In that spirit it's interesting to think about 2012, and how our earliest of early senses of the Republican field might change. How some of the early contenders make use of their four years may go a long way to determining the next standard bearer. We already know Romney vs. Huckabee battle will simmer at Lincoln-Reagan dinners and book signings across the country. And one gets the sense that Gov. Sarah Palin will never fade away (I can see Wasilla from my house - on my TV at least). Two other Republicans face some interesting decisions, though, as they consider their future.

Gov. Bobby Jindal already tested the waters in Iowa this week. He won office easily in 2007 in a state still reeling from Hurricane Katrina, and with a state legislature filled with newcomers thanks to term limits, he has been able to advance many conservative causes and earn kudos from across the GOP spectrum. Jindal can very easily bury himself in the work of his office, even as he jets off to Des Moines and Manchester when the occasion warrants. But he will face a tough decision in 2011, when he must decide simultaneously whether to run for re-election at the same time he'd have to begin the heavy lifting of a presidential campaign. Could he contest his re-election and a straw poll at the same time? Does he bet his future on 2012 and forsake another term, or does he take the chance that 2016 might be a better opportunity?

Gov. Tim Pawlenty was even higher on the McCain veep list, with some news organizations convinced as little as one day before the announcement that he was the pick. He took some interesting, albeit subtle shots at Palin at this month's RGA gathering, and has been accepting many booking requests on cable news. He, like Jindal, faces a tough decision about re-election, but with the election in 2010, he would have an easier time pivoting from one campaign to another. The real question is, with two terms already under his belt, is three really a charm? He has yet to top 50 percent in a statewide race, and state Democrats would certainly try to make trouble for him again, even if there's no obvious challenger now. Riding off into the sunset as a successful Republican governor in a state that almost, and still may have a Senator Al Franken makes for some good talking points in Nashua. And unlike Mitt Romney, he'd have more than one term to brag about.

In the end, it's where Obama's presidency stands after two and a half years that will have the greatest impact on the Republican field. But we'll be keeping an eye on these and other contenders as they at least position themselves for a challenge.

-Mike Memoli