The Obama Win: Explanations And Theories

President Bush and Republicans were sent to the doghouse.  This was a huge opportunity year for Democrats, and Obama took advantage of it in every possible way -- great campaign, virtually no mistakes (dealing with the controversy over Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the "bitter/cling" remarks are the only two I can think of.), they built a huge organization (the DNC and Howard Dean deserve some credit here too) and an unbelievable $630 million+ financial machine.  Two times as many voters said they were personally contacted by the Obama campaign as by the McCain campaign.

But why, in the middle of a crisis, did Americans choose an unknown Illinois senator with a funny name over a war hero they've known for years?

-- The exit polls demographics tell a story of an expansion of the Democratic-leaning electorate by Obama; he did much better with Kerry than Hispanics; he grew the ranks of younger voters; he grew the African American vote; he did a bit better among white voters, but still lost working class whites by nearly 20 points. Obama won among new voters by more than 30 points.

-- Obama is a once-in-a-generation candidate, a brilliant communicator in an age of communication. Cool and consistent under pressure. He grew over the course of two years into a candidate voters believed was ready to be president. The right candidate at the right moment. The most un-Bush of any of the Democratic candidates.

-- The financial crisis, and the candidates' response to it.  Probably the crucial moment for both campaigns. The voters saw the two men react to an unexpected crisis. Voters seemed to prefer Obama's steadiness to McCain's suspended campaign. McCain's sudden decision was 180 degrees from what he had been saying a week before ("fundamentals of our economy are strong").

-- Sarah Palin. Polling shows that she drove some voters away from Sen. McCain and to Barack Obama. Voters judged her to be too inexperienced to be president. Also, instead of appealing to independents, she became a polarizing figure.  ALSO -- her persona highlighted McCain's age and health since she could have taken over. ALSO -- her selection killed the "inexperience" argument against Obama.

-- Message, message, message. Obama branded himself as "Change" two years ago, McCain tried Maverick, Reformer, Country First, Steady Hand At The Wheel, Tax Cutter, and even flirted with "Real American" by the end, and none of them were consistent.

-- A Long Democratic primary.  Obama honed his skills, and defeated the biggest brand name in Democratic politics. Not only did he sharpen his message and build a national campaign, he earned the respect of voters by winning a hard-fought primary against Hillary Clinton without appearing to go too negative.  ALSO -- forced his campaign to build organizations all across the country, especially in states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada.
** Young voters increased their turnout a little; African Americans increased their turnout by a lot -- two percentage points in terms of the total electorate;  they're now voting at census + 1 (according to the exit polls.) Latinos did not increase their vote share, but they gave Obama a margin of more than 25 points. Among young Hispanics, he won by more than 50 points.

** Obama only won white voters under 29; he did the worst among white voters over the age of 65.

** Obama won among every age group except for voters 65 and over;

** Obama won among the poorest voters; he tied among voters whose total family income is more than $50,000.

** Bush's margin among non-college-educated whites was 26 points; McCain's was 19 points.

** The marriage gap: there was a big one among white married women ... among all races, Obama won married women by two points.

** Obama won union voters by 22 points; he won among those with members of unions in their households by 19 points.