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My Election Predictions

04 Nov 2008 08:43 am

In order of likelihood:

1. Obama wins the popular vote and electoral vote, either by large or small margins
2. McCain wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote.
3. McCain wins the popular vote and the electoral vote.

I won't assign probabilities to them; I'm enough of a believer in the non-linear effects of improbable events to keep an open mind.


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» Smart election predictions (Obama wins both electoral and popular votes) from A Couple Things
By Marc Ambinder: In order of likelihood: 1. Obama wins the popular vote and electoral vote, either by large or small margins 2. McCain wins the electoral vote and loses the popular vote. 3. McCain wins the popular vote and the electoral vote. #1 is ob... [Read More]