Running scared (already)

After losing a dozen plus seats in the past two cycles, Republicans are already looking ahead to 2010 (MN and GA races notwithstanding). As some speculate already about whether the playing field is favorable for the GOP, handicappers should not ignore one of the lessons of this cycle: run scared or go home.

There are a host of other factors at play, but smart folks say that incumbents like Susan Collins survived a Democratic wave in a blue state because she anticipated the challenges ahead early on, and was ready from the get go against a solid Democratic recruit. Meanwhile, Saxby Chambliss faces a runoff in part because he was late to react to what became a tough race against a tough, though unknown, opponent.

With that in mind, there are some interesting tea leaves worth reading in the earliest stages of the next round. For starters - money. On Wednesday, the good folks at The Hotline ran a great chart listing cash on hand totals for the incumbents, showing most have a $1 to 3 million base. Sens. Shelby, Bayh and Schumer - all likely safe -- lead the pack with $10 million+, but next is the very vulnerable Arlen Specter, with more than $5 million.

Toward the bottom of the list are a few incumbents who may face strong challenges, like NC's Burr ($980K), NH's Gregg ($880K) and AR's Lincoln ($684K).  Jim Bunning, who barely won in '04, has an anemic $175K, leading some to speculate he may retire even as he's stated otherwise. Burr's is an interesting case given the defeat of his colleague, Liddy Dole, and the fact that no one has been re-elected to the seat he holds now in decades. An adviser promises he has been working the state hard throughout his term, however.

Poking around the Internets, you get another sense of who's already girding their loins, as Joe Biden would say. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who's raised the specter of a challenge from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, has an active site that currently promotes a fundraising push in honor of her 68th birthday. David Vitter's (R-LA) site features a smiling family photo, and the slogan "Fighting for our Future." Arlen Specter is home at specter2010.com (though he may want to take down the photo of him and the losing GOP ticket).

At the other extreme, a half dozen incumbents have no Web page, including again Gregg and Lincoln. Mel Martinez's (R-FL) site invites visitors to watch "Senator-elect" Martinez' victory speech. Chris Dodd and John McCain still have their presidential sites up.
 
There's a long road ahead, including some open seats and at least one special election to come. VP-elect Joe Biden will resign his Senate seat within weeks of his being sworn in for a seventh term. But more on that later.

-Mike Memoli