The Obama Transition: Five Ponderables

Aside from the fascinating but voyeristic question of what Barack Obama will do to anger liberals and his core supporters, aside from the speculation about Hillary Clinton...here's the first edition of five things to watch.

1. Which comes first? Climate change legislation or health care?  Obama has certainly thought about this, and his advisers don't really agree. Sen. Ted Kennedy is busy crafting what he hopes will be SB-1 (and working quietly with John Dingell in the House to try and introduce legislation jointly.)  There are lots of competing health care plans out there...Max Baucus's and Ron Wyden's.... The impetus to do health care early is coming from some of the party's most prominent voices, like the SEIU's Andrew Stern, as well as from a lot of the corporate types that Obama consorts with.  On the other hand, Obama has said that we're in a post-consumer spending economy and that the future economic growth will be predicated on establishing energy independence and new sources of energy.  With gas prices low, Obama might find it more politically palatable to educate the country on why a cap and trade system will raise gas prices and utility prices in the short term but (in theory) produce dividends over time.

2. China. No one's watching China. We're borrowing more and more; the budget deficit might approach a trillion dollars this year. Tax revenues will only trickle in next year.  Megan McArdle asks what would in any other era be a rhetorical question: what if China decided what the U.S. was no longer creditworthy? What if they expect more from the U.S?  3.  Obama and technology.  YouTubing the radio address?  That's as easy as putting a video camera in the Oval Office.  It's nearly shambolic if that's all he's going to do. What Obama's government-wide chief technology officer will be empowered to do and who'll get the position are probably the subject of more speculation and outside-the-Belway interest than any cabinet position save for Treasury.  Will there be an attempt at standardization?  A White House blog with more content than just press releases?  A White House blog with comments enabled?  A petition forum?  How will the administration manage the trade-off between transparency and efficiency?

4. What Obama's going to do with his list of names, emails and numbers. Who administers it. What the DNC becomes. This  _is_ the subject of intense discussions among very senior people. Steve Hildebrand, one of the architects of the campaign's field strategy, favors an independent entity.

5. Obama versus the Congress.  We all want to know: what will their first confrontation be about? Ethics? The CR? Strings attached to an auto industry bailout?  A nominee? Earmarks?