The
distribution and categories are based on polling, historical trends,
conversations with the campaigns, and the thoughts of smart analysts in
those states.
Allocating all the toss-ups states that lean to Obama gives him 353 electoral votes with two true tossups, Missouri and Indiana. If Obama wins Missouri, he will certainly maximize turnout in St. Louis and Kansas City and do better in those cities' suburbs and exburbs than John Kerry, but he can thank his campaign's early work in the Southwestern part of the state; Springfield hadn't seen a presidential candidate since 1992; Watch for the margins in Greene Co. If Obama earns over 40% of the vote here, he'll probably win the state. He doesn't seen to win rural counties -- Kerry won one -- he just has to show up. McCain, for his part, needs to do better in the major city suburbs.
Indiana -- a state where 60% of the VAP is white working class, where a quarter of the state gets their news from Chicago, where the share of manufacturing workers is higher than in any state in the union, where the McCain campaign waited until the summer to open up a field office, where Republicans realized too late that the state was competitive.
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, IA (197 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: MN, NM, MI, WI, PA, NH, CO, VA, NV (94) electoral votes)
Toss-ups: FL, OH, NC, MO, IN (84) electoral votes -- Florida, Ohio, North Carolina lean Obama)
Lean McCain: GA, MT, ND, WV, NE-2 (26) electoral votes)
Likely McCain: AK, AL, AZ, AR, ID, KS, SD, KY, LA, MS, NE 1,3,4,5 OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (137) electoral votes)
Obama: likely + leaners: 291 electoral votes
McCain: likely + leaners = 163 electoral votes
Tossups: 84 electoral votes
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