Villain Of The Year For Democrats

Villain Of The Year For Republicans

You Predict: Rahm's Code Name

You Predict: Obama's Approval Rating

You Predict: The Dow In January, 2010

Year-End Poll: Sarah Palin's Moments

Year-End Poll: Book Of The Year

Year-End Poll: McCain's Senior Staff

Year-End Poll: High-Impact Journalist Of The Cycle

Year-End Poll: Major GOP Gaffes

Year-End Poll: Best Scandal

Year-End Poll: Moment Of The Year

Year-End Poll: Democratic Gaffe Of The Year

Year-End Poll: The Clinton Characters

Year-End Poll: Unsung Obama Hero

Year-End Poll: Feud Of The Year

Year-End Poll: Political Catch Phrases

The Left Adapts To Power; Or, Overcoming Learned Pessimism

The Rick Warren dust-up seems to signal a knee-jerk reaction on the part of many liberals and progressives to what progressives would normally interpret as a slap in the face.

The contrast, though, between the impressively (from that point of view) liberal administration appointments that obama has been rolling out over the past few days and the choice of an anti-gay pastor to speak briefly for one morning (and presumably not about gays, or any other divisive social issue) is fascinating.

There has been some praise for Obama's choice of Hilda Solis as an ally of labor, but that praise has been nothing compared to the fury in many quarters about the symbolism of Rick Warren.

The Obama team probably misread the situation a bit, but it's easy to see how they might do so: the transition team obviously wanted two contrasting religious voices for the invocation and the benediction. Seen in this light, the Warren pick is far less controversial.

The deeper dynamic, though, is this: liberal groups are used to being treated like stepchildren in Washington. They are used to being under seige at all times, and it's going to take some adjustment to realize that gay rights are probably not in danger because of things like the Warren pick.   (An Obama adviser, discussing this matter with me, urged patience, saying that Obama is committed to the substance of his campaign promises to expand gay rights.)

A little private reassurance would go a long way, and it seems that the Obama team ihas not accounted for the fact that everyone, on all sides, is going through a period of psychological adjustment from the Bush years.

This includes liberal interest groups accustomed to being slapped around by Bush and taken for granted by Bill Clinton.

When new programs start coming down the pike, and Obama's priorities on gay rights (and on anything else on the progressive agenda) become clear, most of this early defensive posturing will probably be seen as premature and overblown.  Until Barack Obama does something substantial to advance gay rights, groups like HRC can hardly be blamed for feeling the deja vu.

The Democrats' Card Check Quandary

So - organized labor in the form of the Change to Win coalition and the AFL-CIO spent hundreds of millions of dollars over the past several cycles, devoted hundreds of thousands of person-hours, extended itself in myriad ways - to bring Democrats to power, to elect a Democratic president, to elect a labor friendly slate that would finally break down the governmental and economic barriers to allow the labor movement to breathe and expand. Central to all of this is one piece of legislation, ingeniously  titled the " Employee Free Choice Act," EFCA, or, card check. This column is fixated with EFCA because labor remains the backbone of the Democratic Party, EFCA is their top priority, and because the passage of card check legislation has the potential to dramatically reinvigorate the labor movement everywhere. Failure would probably doom it.

Conventional wisdom is that Democrats will pass card check upon assuming office, that Obama will pass it, and that all this will happen quite quickly. They'll anger business groups by doing so, but the quicker they get this out of the way, the more time they'll have to repair relations before the 2010 midterms. But card check is going to be one of the toughest pieces of legislation to pass.

First, it's not clear that Democrats have the votes to avoid a filibuster. A couple of Democratic senators, like Mark Pryor and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, may balk. Business-funded groups are slamming Democrats in competitive states with pressure advertising, and anti-labor forces claim the support of virtually every major technology and industry association in Washington. Republicans like George Voinovich of Ohio and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania going to need an incentive -- positive or negative, depending on the case - to break ranks.

And nothing would be more disastrous for labor - and for the Obama administration - for Democrats to bring the vote to the floor and watch it fail. The history of the relationship between the Democratic Party and labor unions is not as clear cut as modern political rhetoric might indicate. Two of the most consequential labor policy failures occurred during Democratic administrations and in Democratic congresses. Jimmy Carter and the Democrats failed to pass legislation legalizing common situs picketing, which would have made it much easier for unions to strike an entire job site if only one party had a contractual grievance. Congressional Democrats, stymied by dissenters in their own party, couldn't pass labor law reform out of committee. Bill Clinton sided with labor in most disputes, but NAFTA and fast track trade negotiation legislation are regarded by many in labor as the two biggest catalysts to the recent globalization-related declines in union membership.

To say that an older generations of labor leaders is wary of big promises from Democrats is an understatement. Indeed, within the movement, there's an implicit bargain at hand. If Obama doesn't get to sign EFCA, he's not going to lose the support of service-oriented unions, the multi-ethnic, racially diverse unions. In 1994, union members stayed home or voted for Republicans in part because they were angry that Clinton had pushed the North American Free Trade Agreement upon them.

It would be difficult for Obama to retain the ironclad support of Midwestern industrial unions - leaders of which took risks among their culturally conservative members by supporting Obama so unequivocally. Obama is likely to bide time with labor by appointing friendly folks to the National Labor Relations Board, by reigning in government outsourcing and by ordering the Justice Department the Labor Department to more stringently enforce existing protections for workers.

Continue reading "The Democrats' Card Check Quandary" »

Democrats And The Legacy Question

Nepotism and dynasty are the politico-sociological phrases of the week, and Democrats who are digesting the possibility of Caroline Kennedy becoming a U.S. senator because she is Caroline Kennedy are concluding that the criticism is not entirely without merit.  Using the word "nepotism" to describe the Kennedy situation is inaccurate. Kennedy is a legacy; her family is not in charge of the process of selection and does not exert any formal influence on the process. Legacies benefit from the social characteristics imputed to their families; their values, ideals and informal social influences.  President John Adams appointed his son, John Quincy to be ambassador plenipotentiary to Prussia; JQA made peace with Britain during the Napoleonic Wars. The elder Adams worried about the appearance of nepotism, but his argument was sound: John Quincy was one of the very few Americans who had spent considerable time overseas, who knew the diplomatic causeways, and who the president trusted to handle the account.  The Adams dynasty survived  many iterations, but by the time of Franklin Roosevelt -- for whom family lineage was so important that he married his second cousin -- Henry Adams lived across from the White House and was treated as a benevolent, inconsequential wise man.  Americans have a habit of protesting dynasties as being violations of our civic creed, which, since the advent of Jacksonian Democracy, has helped to temper the rewards of birth when it comes to competition in the political sphere.  Growing up in a political family can anethetize budding politicians to the vagaries of politics, but, at the same time, a passion for public service can be cultivated rather quickly. We want good people in politics; we want good sons and daughters of good politicians to continue their legacies.

Now -- it's an entirely fair point -- Democrats, the self-named advocates of the common man, of an enlightened meritocracy,  have a rising number of high-profile dynasty candidates, candidates who, by the accident of birth, have found themselves in a privileged position.  Might this trend be mitigated by the advent of Obama Democrats? Consider that Democrats in 2008 had an opportunity to pick up a lot of Senate seats. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee recruited candidates who could hit the ground running with name ID and the ability to raise funds, like Mark Udall in Colorado and cousin Tom Udall in New Mexico. Still -- dynastic considerations won't clear the field and aren't guarantors of anything. Another Udall cousin, Sen. Gordon Smith, was defeated, as were the GOP's two dynasty candidates -- incumbent John Sununu in New Hampshire and Elizabeth Dole in North Carolina At what point do committees like the DSCC have a 'social obligation'  to recruit and signal their support of candidates of quality and promise -- think of Barack Obama circa 2003, 2004 -- as opposed to clearing the field for the Udalls and Kennedys?

Is it possible for the Democratic to really be, at once, the party of Obama of Hawaii, Hyde Park, Kansas and Kenya -- and also the party of legacies? 

On the other hand, it is difficult, in a year in which Obama defeated a former first lady, and then the son and grandson of Navy Admirals, to make the case of a Dem-lead noblesse oblige-apalooza. Not the nobility of family or birth, at least.

What I'm Getting Andrew Sullivan For Christmas

Understanding The Politics: Why Rick Warren Matters To Gays

Obama's Science Adviser

Obama Gets The Symbols, Bungles The Politics

Let me start by talking about my own views. I think that it is no secret that I am a fierce advocate for equality for gay and lesbian Americans. It is something that I have been consistent on and something that I intend to be consistent on during my presidency. What I've also said is that it is important for American to come together even though we have disagreements on certain social issues. I would note that a couple of years ago, I was invited by Rick Warren's church to speak despite his wariness that I held contrary views.... that's what this campaign was about....We're not going to agree on very single issue...but what we have to do is be able to create an atmosphere that we can disagree and not be disagreeable....

Paul Weyrich, RIP

The Clinton Foundation's Donors

As soon as Senator Clinton was nominated to be Secretary of State, the Foundation staff began working with President-elect Obama's transition team to ensure that not even the appearance of a conflict of interest existed between the Clinton Foundation's operations and Senator Clinton's anticipated service as Secretary of State.  President Clinton's efforts are unprecedented and go above and beyond what the law requires and are intended to allow the important work of the Foundation to continue.

Democratic Interest Groups Join To Press For Obama Economic Plan

The Democratic coalition is ready to fight.

Tomorrow, liberal interest groups and unions will unite under the Campaign for Jobs and Economic Recovery Now (C-JERN) banner to pressure Congress to pass Barack Obama's economic recovery package.

Given the parlous state of the economy and the tricky politics of the auto bailouts, passing a large economic stimulus plan might be a heavier lift than Democrats might have anticipated in the weeks after the election.   "Why should [Obama] have to spend political capital on a problem created by his predecessors?" said Brad Woodhouse, whose Americans United for Change (c)4 will coordinate the group's activities.

Participants include the Change to Win unions, the AFL-CIO unions, ACORN, US Action, the NEA, the Sierra Club, the People for the American Way foundation, and others. They'll provide the field capacity; Woodhouse's Americans United for Change is organizing the coalition and will produce the bulk of its communications, both paid and earned. C-JERN has met with Obama's transition team and with representatives for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Harry Reid.

In 2005, Americans United for Change was called Americans United to Protect Social Security; it spent millions to  pressure Republicans and Democrats, ultimately helping to put the kibosh on the President Bush's aspiration to privitize Social Security.   

Lincoln "Undecided" On Card Check; Al Sharpton Opposes

A spokersperson for Sen. Blanche Lincoln says the Arkansas senator hasn't decided how to vote on the Employee Free Choice Act, or card check.

"It was not her intention to make comments that would suggest opposition to the bill," said Katie Laning Niebaum, the spokesperson. "She believes the bill should go through the normal legislative process and she will not be taking a position until that time. So, to be clear, she remains undecided on the bill."

I'm not sure how influential Rev. Al Sharpton is these days, but he told his radio audience this afternoon that he opposes card check because a non-secret-ballot process could potentially create undue pressures for minority workers in majority-white work environments, and it could foist contracts on them that they would not otherwise support.

Gay Group Calls Obama Invocation Pick A "Genuine Blow"

Joe Solomnese, the president of the Human Rights Campaign, has sent a blistering letter to President-elect Obama, accusing him of delivering a "genuine blow" to the gay community in choosing Rev. Rick Warren to give the formal invocation at next month's inauguration.

Let me get right to the point.  Your invitation to Reverend Rick Warren to deliver the invocation at your inauguration is a genuine blow to LGBT Americans.   Our loss in California over the passage of Proposition 8 which stripped loving, committed same-sex couples of their given legal right to marry is the greatest loss our community has faced in 40 years.  And by inviting Rick Warren to your inauguration, you have tarnished the view that gay, lesbian, bisexual and transgender Americans have a place at your table.

 

Rick Warren has not sat on the sidelines in the fight for basic equality and fairness.  In fact, Rev. Warren spoke out vocally in support of Prop 8 in California saying, "there is no need to change the universal, historical definition of marriage to appease 2 percent of our population ... This is not a political issue -- it is a moral issue that God has spoken clearly about."  Furthermore, he continues to misrepresent marriage equality as silencing his religious views. This was a lie during the battle over Proposition 8, and it's a lie today.

 

Rev. Warren cannot name a single theological issue that he and vehemently, anti-gay theologian James Dobson disagree on.  Rev. Warren is not a moderate pastor who is trying to bring all sides together. Instead, Rev. Warren has often played the role of general in the cultural war waged against LGBT Americans, many of whom also share a strong tradition of religion and faith.

 

We have been moved by your calls to religious leaders to own up to the homophobia and racism that has stood in the way of combating HIV and AIDS in this country.  And that you have publicly called on religious leaders to open their hearts to their LGBT family members, neighbors and friends. 

 

But in this case, we feel a deep level of disrespect when one of architects and promoters of an anti-gay agenda is given the prominence and the pulpit of your historic nomination.  Only when Rev. Warren and others support basic legislative protections for LGBT Americans can we believe their claim that they are not four-square against our rights and dignity. In that light, we urge you to reconsider this announcement.

From experience, one can presume that the decision to invite Rick Warren was made because (a) Obama likes the guy, and (b) he knows it would send a message to groups like the HRC, and to conservative Christians who might be wary of the new president. Not so much pandering as it is Obama's deft manipulation of the politics of symbolism.  Obviously, Obama disagrees with Rick Warren on important issues. He has said so, many times, and publicly.  And he agrees with him on other important issues. And ignoring something like Warren, a mainstream figure who commands the respect of million of Americans, would be foolish.  Obama's message is: Rick Warren is a part of Obama's America, too.

More Card Checkin' Across The Universe

Responding to my post today about comments from Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) on card check legislation for union organizing, a top Democratic political strategist noted that Lincoln "left herself some wiggle room" in the AP article. "She is in a tough state and is getting pounded on this issue and may well say things that make people like me uncomfortable, but it is wrong to suggest that she is a done deal on this," the strategist said.

Even though the labor movement is coming off of its most important political victory in decades, it has never encountered a more perilous confluence of circumstances. Fairly or not, labor's shouldering the blame for the collapse of the auto industry. Employers everywhere are firing workers and renegotiating contracts. The SEIU and Change to Win coalitions are caught up in the Blagojevich scandal (though there's no evidence they did anything wrong.)  And card check, which would be the single biggest boon for union organizing in years, is teetering on the brink, the victim of a concerted and ongoing Republican campaign to brand the legislation as anti-choice and anti-privacy. Labor may not have the 60 Senate votes it needs to beat a filibuster, although some labor strategists are confident that, in private, the numbers are there. Last week, in arguing that the United Auto Workers' contracts were mostly responsible for the collapse of the auto industry in the U.S., anti-union forces essentially conceded that the high wages and good benefits paid to auto makers were at the crux of the industry's competitive failings. This argument matureed at precisely the right time politically. The focus last week was on what went wrong, not on the material situations, relative to the middle class, of its workers. It's fashionable now to blame the UAW for forcing the automakers into a weak competitive position even though the non-wage and benefit clauses in those contracts are more deserving of scrutiny.

A German Lesson.

Continue reading "A German Lesson." »

Rick Warren To Give Invocation At The Inauguration; John Williams, Aretha, Yo-Yo MA, I. Perlman, Too

Understanding Power In Washington: Who's Afraid Of Rahm Right Now?

As this blog matures into the next year, it will owe a debt to the great Hedrick Smith, as I'll be writing more and more about power in Washington; what it is; who has it, who pretends to have it; how it is expressed explicity, and how the press used as a conduit to weild it, implicitly.

The Politico's John Bresnahan has written a great story about how House Speaker Nancy Pelosi put the screws to her former House colleague, Rahm Emanuel, informing him that she did not need his advice about leadership elections and, most dramatically, demanding that the White House account for every conversation it has with Pelosi's members.

The story makes Pelosi look formidable and Rahm look like a creampuff.

Clearly, the origin of the story -- even if it was laundered through neutral parties before reaching the Politico -- comes from Pelosi allies.

Why share that anecdote now?

Because, in the wake of the Blagojevich revelations, Rahm's public standing is as weak right now as it's ever going to get. He's been portrayed as knee-deep in the Blagojevich corruption case, although there's no indication he did anything wrong or even suspicious. Cameras are chasing him all across Chicagoland, and he is hiding from them; and given the investigation, he is in the un-Rahm-ian position of not being able to comment. Right now -- and only right now -- no one's afraid of Mr. Emanuel.  He can't fight back.

Granted, there is no chance that Obama drops him before the inauguration unless everything we think we know about the case is entirely wrong. And once Rahm becomes the chief of staff, he'll be one of the strongest in recent memory -- probably stronger than Don Regan or H.R. Haldeman. Like Haldeman was to Richard Nixon, Emanuel will be first among equals to Obama. He'll be scary again, and no one will be able to dish about him without facing consequences. To borrow a wrestling analogy, Pelosi claimed a receipt on Emanuel after all those stories about Obama selected Rahm in part to make deals with Democrats around her back.

The real story behind this story is not even about Pelosi and Rahm; it's about the battle for the hearts and minds of rank and file Democrats, who will face four-way cross-pressures from the White House, their constituents, the Republicans and their party leadership in Congress.

Pelosi knows the power game.

Card Checkin' Across The Universe

A Shakeup In The RNC Chairman's Race

Continue reading "A Shakeup In The RNC Chairman's Race" »

Mysteries Of The Evening: George Tenet, Dark Energy, And Salazar's Critics

1. Mystery number one: what was former CIA director George Tenet doing, drunk, in Prince Bandar's pool, screaming about the Jews?  Allegedly.

2. Mystery number two: is dark energy -- that ineffable force that appears to hold the universe together and compromises 73% of its critical density -- equivalent to Einstein's Cosmological Constant? That theory has been around for a while, discarded, and then revived. And now, experiments are convincing a lot of physicists that the vacuum energy of space is, indeed, dark energy.

3.Do the greens like Ken Salazar for Interior? Not so much...  So why was he picked?

Bob Kerrey Has A Blog

The Larry Summersization of New School President/ex-Sen. Bob Kerrey has been interesting to watch from the outside. Kerrey was subject to a recent no confidence vote by the faculty and today, he began his quest to make amends, e-mailing students and starting a blog. The comments so far are rather negative.

Dear New School Students,

As you may know, last Wednesday, after the announcement of Joe Westphal's departure as provost, there was a faculty vote of "no confidence" in me. I, however, have confidence in them--and everyone who makes up the New School community.

I am meeting with the faculty this week to discuss all their concerns openly and directly. They were right to disagree with my decision to assume the responsibilities of chief academic officer during the search for a new provost. I have communicated this to the deans and asked them to set up a process to select an interim provost as soon as possible.

We are committed to finding the best provost for our university, one who will continue to strengthen the academic stature of the university. The deans and officers will work with me to set up a search process that includes the academic leadership, the faculty, and students.

I believe that the university is the best it has ever been. We are--and always have been--a diverse international community united by a commitment to intellectual inquiry.   As students, you are and will continue to be our first priority.

I understand that the University Student Senate is holding an open forum on Thursday evening to discuss these recent events.  I encourage you to attend and present your views to those who represent you and your concerns.  I plan to meet with the leaders of the Student Senate in early January so that they can share the issues raised in the forum with me.

Bob Kerrey

How Caroline Kennedy Cleared The Field

I've avoided writing about Caroline Kennedy and the New York Senate seat mostly because I have nothing new or original to say. What follows isn't exactly new or original, but it struck me, nonetheless, how quickly Kennedy was able to clear the field.

The big misnomer, of course, is that Hillary Clinton was arguing against Kennedy. She wasn't. Some of her supporters were -- and they've been told to knock it off. Clinton will quietly fade to black as if her Senate power base didn't exist... as she's simultaneously fading in as Secretary of State.

So -- with Clinton not protesting, Caroline Kennedy had it made. She's very likeable and has lots of friends, including the governor.  She'll raise a ton of money in an instant. She has no baggage. An appealing personal history. And -- most importantly -- the implied support of the President-elect.

The other big factor: Kennedy consultant Josh Isay. He's THISCLOSE to Sen. Chuck Schumer. Schumer is Harry Reid's chief political adviser. Reid's enthusiasm today bubbled over. You can see the tectonic plates moving if you look closely.

Of course, Sen. Schumer has spent enough time in the shadow of the junior senator from New York. Where he'll be, again, if Caroline Kennedy becomes a senator.

More Thoughts On the Future Of The Democratic Party

Obama's Interior Announcement Tomorrow

Another day, another presser from the President-elect. Tomorrow, Barack Obama will announce his pick for the Department of the Interior, and, as has been widely reported, the gentlemen who'll get the nomination is Sen. Ken Salazar of Colorado. 

Some Democrats are having trouble figuring out why Salazar would abandon his Senate seat for the cabinet right now, the theory being that he is giving up on a promising political career. On the other hand, if you want to get something done in government, you'd better do it during the next for years when everything seems on the table.

Question: the early guidance from folks close to the Obama transition was that Rep. Raul Grijalva was a lock for the job. Suddenly, about two weeks ago, he was out of the running. Why? Grijalva's committment to Interior issues is unquestioned; he gave up an appointment to the taxwriting Ways and Means committee to keep a subcommittee chairmanship with oversight over national parks and public land.

The perpetual motion machine known as Chris "The Fix" Cillizza has a good rundown on who Gov. Bill Ritter might appoint, and which Republicans might vie for the seat in 2010.

Where Republicans Can Pick A Fight

Presuming that there isn't a Supreme Court vacancy in 2009 -- hardly a presumption worth betting on, by the way, Republican strategists looking to beat the post-election malaise are identified at least three opportunities next year where the party can unify on a national level against Barack Obama and the Democrats.

1. The nomination of Eric Holder to be Attorney General.  Not only will committee Republicans get the chance to grill Holder on the Marc Rich pardon and Bill Clinton's 1999 commutation of FALN members, they'll also force the Obama administration to issue detailed policy statements on intelligence collection, judicial nominees, the Supreme Court, the independence of federal prosecutors, the status of Guantanamo Bay, and more.  They'll get to do this before Obama is inaugurated, and before he can use the bully pulpit of the presidency to set a clear course. To renergize their base, Republicans need a good demagogue, and Holder, if he comes off as wimpy, might qualify. The irony for Republicans is that, Michael Mukasey aside, the Bush Administration lowered the standards for what constitutes a good attorney general.

           A. The GOP v. Clinton side show. Let's stipulate: Hillary Clinton's confirmation hearing will give Republicans like David Vitter the chance to bring up various and sundry sins associated with the pater familias.  My sense is that Republicans on the Hill have little desire to follow Vitter's lead, in part because Vitter has little credibility within the conference. (Even Vitter might decide that his own public imbroglios, coupled with his in-cycle status, might be too much.)  In any event, Republicans will use Clinton's confirmation to elicit policy statements from the administration on everything from talking to Iran to the coming war of succession in Egypt to Pakistan to Russia to North Korea. 

2. The stimulus package. First, make that packages, plural. There'll be several of them spread throughout the year, though there is no consensus right now about how to divide up the proposals.  A trillion dollars worth of government spending over the course of a few years is a ripe target for conservatives. Think back to the (Bill-Clinton/Joe Biden!) crime bill of 1994, when Republicans rallied their base against the legislation by ridiculing a tiny part of it -- proposals to expand midnight basketball leagues as a way of keeping kids off the streets and out of gangs.   Watch for Republicans to settle on a handful of objectionable items and create the impression that the entire enterprise is suspect. Doing so will give Republicans cover to vote against more wildly popular projects.

          Then there's Obama's first budget., the coming battle over earmarks (which will divide Democrats),  then there's the (likely) debate about extending the auto bailout.

3. The Employee Free Choice Act. Here, the goal is to get 40 senators to vote against cutting off debate for "card check" legislation. . As this column has noted, they'll be assisted by reliable party allies, from the Chamber of Commerce to NFIB to the usual crowd of corporate issue entrepeneurs; millions will be spent to rally the Republican base and set the tone of the debate. One problem: Democrats might not do card check until it is politically precarious for certain Republicans to oppose it, so Republicans may have to wait on this one.

Where else might the GOP take a stand?

It's hard to imagine that Republicans will defer to Democrats on health care, but their allies aren't going to be with them all the way.

Blagojevich? the national Republican Party has no standing to criticize the Democrats right now on corruption, and doing so dissolves the demarcation line between politics and the legal situation.  More profitably, Republicans in Illinois can use the Democratic legislature's fumbling of the succession issue to draw a contrast with whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee.

Gingrich: RNC Web Ad Is "Destructive Distraction"

The Once And Future Democratic Party

This column has been obsessing over the future of the Republican Party, and rightly so, but in doing so, we've been missing an arguably more important story given the current political miliue: the backroom conversations that will define the future of the Democratic Party -- a party whose structure, function and funding threaten to be gobbled up by the infrastructure that Barack Obama has built, and the one that his campaign team is deciding how to perpetuate.

According to Obama transition sources, the development of OFA 2.0 is still in legal limbo to a degree, and there does not appear to be a consensus on what it will look like.  Obama campaign manager David Plouffe is leading the discussions, but at the Harvard campaign manager's conference last week, he declined to comment. "We're still working it out," he said.

1. The Future of the Democratic National Committee

Clearly, the DNC  did not compete with the Obama campaign for resources, and the creation of a nationwide clean voter database with a single interface was a major step toward its evolution as a modern party. But now that the DNC has the data, and now that the party has the infrastructure, does the DNC need a change of mission? Right now, the DNC and an Obama team of political forensic examiners are conducting a ship to stern review of the party and its 2008 operations.  

If the DNC turns into a advocacy group for Obama, then it will probably have to have custody of Obama's 13 million person list.  Alternatively, if the Obama team turns the DNC into a nationwide campaign organization based on the OFA grassroots model, it might not need Obama's list -- although organizing would be much more efficient if the list was shared with the rest of the party.

Another model is to turn the DNC into the central campaign committee; instead of organizing political campaigns through the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the DNC would assume many of the central functions of those committees, including, and especially, field.

Of course, Obama's team could decide to create a hybrid DNC, with an arm dedicated to the promotion of Obama's agenda, an arm that works to build the party's grassroots capacity, and and a arm with responsibility for coordinating the 2010 elections.

2. The list

The list is really shorthand for several capabilities, the first of which is the cadre of volunteer and professional organizers who form the core of Obama's campaign field capacity.  The legal status of this organization will guide what it does and how other groups react to it. If it's a 501 (c) 4, other similarly organized interest groups worry that donors who want to curry favor with the Obama organization will bundle contributions to the (c) 4 and will forget about everyone else. If Obama's organizers form the caravan for social change, than the existing progressive infastructure in Washington will find themselves strapped for cash and resources. How does Obama's team avoid crowding out the private issue entrepreneurs and interest groups? Or -- is the purpose of an Obama 501(c) 4 precisely that -- to centralize power and take it away from these groups?

Of course, some of this fretting is overdone. MoveOn was able to grow its membership list by 2.5 million in seven months; there will always be room in the party for watchdog progressives who challenge the establishment, and Obama is the establishment.  Whatever OFA 2.0 and the DNC become, they won't become the Center for American Progress, which will remain a center for policy generation and analysis, as well as a one-stop booking shop for Democratic communicators.

There may be consolidation, but there will always be a robust Democratic establishment.

Continue reading "The Once And Future Democratic Party" »

Obama's Ed Pick Set To Drop Tomorrow: Arne Duncan

Tomorrow, at a school in the Chicago area, President-Elect Barack Obama will announce his choice to lead the Department of Education, and education insiders, citing the Obama transition team, say it's Arne Duncan, the CEO of schools there.

A senior transition official confirms that Obama plans to nominate Duncan.

Developing......

Duncan has run Chicago schools for seven years and has become friendly with Obama. A 6 foot 5 inch tall Harvard grad and former Australian professional basketball player, he's managed the political hat trick of winning praise from the education reform community, the unions, and is well-liked by parents, too. 

He's worked in the trenches as No Child Left Behind became law, and has had some success in closing failed schools and improving student performance. Last week, outgoing Education Secretary Margaret Spellings met with Duncan and gave him her blessing.

Critics say he's a "corporate" type who favors metrics over actual knowledge about how children learn, but the American Federation of Teachers praises his management style. He's beloved by charter schools advocates.

Like Obama, Duncan favors merit pay for teachers and administrators, but he's been cautious about pushing the concept too far without input from teachers' unions.

The Cost Of Operating Government Triples In A Year

A Treasury report out today pegs the U.S. government's operating cost at approximately $1 trillion, excluding transfer payments, which amounts to a trebling since 2007.

Most of the increase can be attributed to nearly $550b worth of "post-employment liabilities" -- pensions, health benefits -- for government employees, mostly veterans, liaibilities that, for some reason, either weren't estimated properly in 2007 or were simply ignored.

According to the report, the government spent a total of $3.0 trillion dollars and took in $2.5 trillion, and borrowed about $455 billion.

The U.S. government has approximately $1.9 trillion in assets; as liabilities, it counts $5.8 trillion in debt held by the public and $5.3 trillion in what the government owes to its employees. (I hadn't realized the government owed so much to its employees relative to other liabilities. Apparently, the government has deferred expenses for DoD pensions, the OPM pension plan).

The three most expensive government entities, in order:

DoD, which cost, net, $664.5 billion.

HHS, which cost, net, $668.8 billion (HHS's gross cost was actually higher than the Pentagon's.)

the Social Security Administration, which cost $626.1 billion.

For FY 2008, publicly held debt as a percentage of GDP was nearly 41%.

The cost for the Medicare Part D perscrption drug program declined by $668 million over a year.

Corporate tax revenues have declined $67.5 billion this year so far.

Attention John McCain: earmarks account for less than six percent of the government's total net position.

The report dryly forecasets higher deficits: "Market stabilization efforts are expected to contribute to potentially substantial deficit increases in the coming year.

And it devotes acerage to warning about the unsustainability of Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security.

The Most Important White House Office

Barack Obama has launched the era of the political economy, where, to an unprecedented degree, the White House will determine the course, structure and function of the American economy; where, if reports of $2 trillion worth of stimuli are to be believed, the size and scope of the federal government has the potential to nearly double over the course of eight years. He's already shifted the paradigm's default from private enterprise to public action. To the extent that your program or pet cause gets to share in the spoils, it must justify itself to the Obama administration.

Everyone who wants anything from the federal government has to interface with the now conjoined office of intergovernmental affairs and public liaison in the Obama White House.  To head this office, Obama has appointed his best friend and most trusted counselor, Valerie Jarrett. Jarrett has appointed as her chief of staff Michael Strautmanis, one of the Obama family's best friends and another trusted confidant. Traditionally, the intergovernmental affairs portfolio and the OPL portfolio have been kept separate, although Karl Rove unified them in the Bush White House. 

Cecilia Munoz, a senior vice president at the National Council for La Raza, is a powerhouse who knows everyone in Washington. She's going to be the formal director of intergovernmental affairs.  Tina Tchen, another long-time Obama friend, will be the head of the office of public liaison. Additional staff appointments will follow; usually, the deputies in these offices aren't big names; the names being considered for the sub-department portfolios in the Obama administration would have been credible candidates for the top jobs themselves.

The bigger the federal government gets, the more important these offices become. They'll probably be THE powerhouse in the Obama White House from the perspective of politics, constituency relations, interest and client groups, the Washington community, state, local and tribal governments.  Jarrett won't just pass messages between the outside world and the president. Her job will be manage the relationship between the outside world and the president, and, vitally, she and her staff will have the juice to make decisions about how the Obama administration relates to just about every external constituency. Administrations usually build firewalls between the IGA/OPL offices and the White House political office, although the propriety line between politics and policy is always shifting. When Richard Nixon's White House first established what later become the office of public liaison, the goal was intelligence-gathering and constitutent care-and-feeding.  During Jimmy Carter's administation, public affairs director Ann Wexler expanded the role of the office from what she termed "responsiveness" to interest groups to the principal agent for coalition building. George W. Bush's public liaison specialists were often the point of contact between the base and the White House, and they served as his most effective policy advocates.

Jarrett shares a senior adviser title with David Axelrod, who will informally supervise the White House communications operation.  But Jarrett's job will probably be more important. Outside of Rahm Emanuel, she's destined to become the second most powerful staffer in the place.

Obama Blago Review Done; To Be Released Next Week

"At the direction of the President-elect, a review of Transition staff contacts with Governor Blagojevich and his office has been conducted and completed and is ready for release.  That review affirmed the public statements of the President-elect that he had no contact with the governor or his staff, and that the President-elect's staff was not involved in inappropriate discussions with the governor or his staff over the selection of his successor as US Senator.

"Also at the President-elect's direction, Gregory Craig, counsel to the Transition, has kept the US Attorney's office informed of this fact-gathering process in order to ensure our full cooperation with the investigation.

"In the course of those discussions, the US Attorney's office requested the public release of the Transition review be deferred until the week of December 22, in order not to impede their investigation of the governor.  The Transition has agreed to this revised timetable for release," said Obama Transition Communications Director Dan Pfeiffer.

Obama will be on vacation that week and away from the prying cameras of the press.

Holder Confirmation Hearing Pushed Back

A Republican Governor Is Antsy About The Bailout

The RNC Tests The Politics Of The New

Moment By Moment: The President And The Shoe

A Crowded Republican Field In Michigan

Top Obama Teams To Meet In Chicago Next Week

The Campaign Managers: Florida, Rev. Wright, The Economy, Palin, Iowa

At Harvard's Institute of Politics tonight, David Plouffe, David Axelrod, the winners, and Rick Davis and Bill McInturff, not the winners,  met on somewhat neutral territory to exchange war stories and engage in a series of fascinating counterfactuals meant to help the Kennedy School of Government draft a bit of story.

For example: Plouffe acknowledged that if Florida had kept its delegates and its January date on the Democratic nomination calendar, Obama might not have won the nomination. "Florida was concerning to us. If that Florida primary, coming three days after South Carolina, it might have mitigated all of South Carolina, and, in fact, we might not be the nominee."

Moderator Gwen Ifill elicited two distinct narratives from the campaigns. Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, drew up a picture of a nightmare political environment for Republicans, cemented by McCain's links to President Bush on Iraq policy.

 "There is no question that the war on Iraq...continued to plague us as a party. That was our connection to the Bush administration. It was the easiest connection to make, and also the most intense one."

Here David Axelrod interrupts.  "I have no doubt that ...the war was a complicated issue, but  by the time people voted, it wasn't the issue that I think was driving their vote. I think the economy was driving their vote, and I would argue that the biggest Faustian bargain McCain made was switching his position on the tax cuts."

McInturff, McCain's pollster, told a story.: "The point was, we do the surge,  John's been for it from like,  2004,45 and 6, we are the leading critic of the Bush administration,  and then we get to January of '07, and then, guess what, the Bush administration ...adopts the surge,  we go on TV in January on Meet the Press, and I said 'we have to say, over and over and over again, here's where I've been for years,  and the president's behind me... and John was very, very tempered in a way that really affected our numbers with the base."

So McInturff called up Mark Salter, McCain's chief of staff at the time, and asked why McCain hadn't put distance between himself and President Bush. "He said, Bill, we're negotiating with the White House how many troops. We cannot be on air beign that distant from the president on the same weekend that we're negotiating over the number of troops...."

"What really happened," McInturff said, "was that  John McCain really became President Bush's spokesperson on Iraq."

Axelrod and Plouffe credited McCain's faltering response to the economic collapse in September as being the single most decisive event of the fall campaign.  In June, Plouffe said, Obama's internal polling did not pick up evidence that voters viewed McCain as out of touch.   When, on September 15, McCain allowed that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong" - Davis said this was evidence of McCain's optimism - voters began to see McCain as oblivious with Bush on economic policy but also as fundamentally out of touch with their concerns.   The nine days following the McCain were devastating: McCain had a message problem, he fumbled the aftermath of the economic collapse, he "suspended" is campaign, and Obama, during their first debate, did not seem at all like a "dangerous" change maker, Axelrod said.

On Rev. Jeremiah Wright and McCain's refusal to allow his campaign to bring up Obama's former preacher, McIntruff noted that when the pressure to do so was at its most intense, McCain was behind 40 points with younger voters and way behind President Bush's level of support among Hispanic voters.   Bringing up Wright would have eroded McCain's standing even further, he said.

Continue reading "The Campaign Managers: Florida, Rev. Wright, The Economy, Palin, Iowa" »

The China Caution

FIlling In The National Security Cabinet

Where Are The Southern Accents In The Obama Cabinet?

Is there going to be a Southern accent anywhere in the Obama cabinet/WH ? Does not seem so so far and I don't see many credible Southerners in the remaining rumored names.

The Solution To The Trauma Crisis: A Great Depression

Not LiveBlogging The Harvard Camapign Manager's Conference

Obama's "Certain" His Staff Didn't Play Ball With Blago

"Open For Questions"

"What if a politician were to see his job as that of an organizer, as part teacher and part advocate, one who does not sell voters short but who educates them about the real choices before them? As an elected public official, for instance, I could bring church and community leaders together easier than I could as a community organizer or lawyer. We would come together to form concrete economic development strategies, take advantage of existing laws and structures, and create bridges and bonds within all sectors of the community. We must form grass-root structures that would hold me and other elected officials more accountable for their actions."

Continue reading ""Open For Questions"" »

A Rocket Scientist In The Cabinet, And More Czars

The First New Foreign Crisis

Obama Still Mulling Over CIA/DNI

Note To The Republican National Committee

"President-elect Barack Obama's carefully parsed and vague statements regarding his own contact and that of his team with Governor Rod Blagojevich are unacceptable.  Considering the severity of the allegations against Governor Blagojevich, the President-elect should immediately disclose any and all communications his transition team has had with the governor's office along with any Service Employees International Union (SEIU) officials involved in the matter.  Obama's promise of transparency to the American people is now being tested."

Number Five, According to To ABC News

Wiretap Porn, And Other Thoughts

Rumor Patrol: Rahm's Not The Whistleblower

"Ongoing Investigation"

Q: Have you ever spoken to [Illinois] Gov. [Rod R.] Blagojevich (photo left) about the Senate seat?

O: I have not discussed the Senate seat with the governor at any time. My strong belief is that it needed to be filled by somebody who is going to represent the people of Illinois and fight for them. And beyond that, I was focused on the transition.

Q: And that was before and after the election?

O: Yes.

Q: Are you aware of any conversations between Blagojevich or [chief of staff] John Harris and any of your top aides, including Rahm Emanuel

O: Let me stop you there because . . . it's an ongoing....

...investigation. I think it would be inappropriate for me to, you know, remark on the situation beyond the facts that I know. And that's the fact that I didn't discuss this issue with the governor at all.

I suspect that this formulation, with its rich history,  will not stop anyone "there," even as it's entirely plausible that Obama's legal counselors have advised him not to say anything else.

RNC's Duncan To Run For Re-Election

Axelrod: "I Know He Has Talked To The Governor"

This might be a nit to pick, but on November 23, Obama senior adviser David Axelrod said on Fox News that Obama had indeed spoken with Gov. Blagojevich about his successor:

I know he has talked to the governor and there are a whole range of names many of which have surfaced, and I think he has a fondness for a lot of them."

(Jake Tapper has more context).

Transition officials did not have immediate comment. Update: the press office later released this statement in Axelrod's name:

I was mistaken when I told an interviewer last month that the President-elect has spoken directly to Governor Blagojevich about the Senate vacancy. They did not then or at any time discuss the subject.

Again -- it'd be more unusual if Obama hadn't talked to Blagojevich. Was Axelrod mistaken? Was he referring to a staff-level contact? Did the discussion occur before the election?

These questions have become somewhat burdensome for the Obama staff, especially since the president-elect has long considered Blagojevich to be a clot in the artery of Democratic power. Axelrod, too, has been privately critical of the Illinois governor, a former client. The touchy context for this indictment is the larger circle of Chicago political insiders who Obama befriended on his freeclimb to power. A long trial will expose to the public many unsavory Chicago political traditions -- the same traditions that John McCain haltingly tried to turn into a political issue during the presidential race.

60 Might Have Mattered

A Republican senator, speaking to reporters this morning, offered up EFCA, the "Employee Free Choice Act" -- card check -- as a prime example of where Republicans would unite to fight tooth and nail against the Democrats and the Obama White House.

"We will do everything we possibly can to get every Republican on board," the senator said."We're even working on Arlen," the senator said, referring to Pennsylvania's Sen. Specter, a reliable ally of labor unions. A few Democrats, the senator said, will be targeted.

Already, labor and business groups have spent millions on television commercials and major trade associations plan to spend billions more opposing it.

Card check would allow workers to "show cards" at a union-sponsored event; if more than 50% of them did, then the union would be recognized as the bargaining agent for the workers. Alternatively, employees could ask for a secret ballot election, but employers would have to recognize its results. Labor unions have been salivating for card check elections, as their ranks would significantly expand because of it; Obama has promised to sign it. 

Blago Complaint: Midday Update

As Illinois legislators began to talk openly of quickly impeaching indicted governor Rod Blagojevich, Barack Obama prepared to make a statement, Sen. Dick Durbin called for a special election, and the lawyers of the nation's largest labor union reviewed its role in the indictment in detail.

Obama, meeting with former vice president Al Gore today, will probably make a brief on-camera statement. Transition aides declined to comment on the indictment; they seemed to be surprised by its scope. Speaking about Obama, U.S. Attorney Pat Fitzgerald told reporters that prosecutors "make no allegations that he is aware of anything."  Perhaps as a courtesy to the president-elect, Obama's name isn't printed in the indictment -- only

Durbin called on the Illinois General Assembly to enact a law as quickly as possible calling for a special election to fill the Senate vacancy of Barack Obama. No appointment by this Governor could produce a credible replacement." 

Rep. Jan Schawkosky (D-IL) called today for Blagojevich to resign, and if he refuses, to impeach him.

The complaint alleges that Blagojevich tried to use an intermediary to bargain with Sen. Obama; it describes a meeting on November 12 with a high-ranking official at the Service Employees International Union, where Blagojevich suggested that he'd accept a position at an organization designed to help the Senate candidate.

One labor official and one press accounts say that the SEIU official was Andrew Stern, the SEIU's outspoken president.  Discussing how one might help a senatorial candidate is legal and par the course, but Blagojhevich apparently asked for the money upfront.

A senior SEIU official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said that the union's lawyers had reviewed the complaint and did not believe that anyone associated with the union had anything to be concerned about. Witnesses, they surely are.

Blago Complaint : Obama "Not Aware"

Blago's Taint: Who Succeeds Obama, And How?

There are several possibilities now:

1. Blagojevich defiantly stays in office. The legislature impeaches him; Lt. Gov. Pat Quinn becomes governor and appoints Obama's successor. Democrats worry about Quinn's judgment here, but they might attempt to prevail on him to pick someone acceptable.

2. Blagojevich stays in office, but the impeachment is stalled until four weeks from now, and then, because a new general assembly would have to begin the proceedings anew, Blagojevich appoints a successor; the U.S. Senate refuses to seat that person.

3. A special election is called, Blagojevich signs the bill; or he vetoes it, the legislature overrides the veto and a date is set;  some Democrats in the state believe that this scenario will benefit Republican Mark Kirk, because Democrats will have a nasty, long, primary season to fight about Blagojevich and who was closest to him. Kirk will probably have a clear field, lots of money, and a very simple change/anti-corruption message.

4. Blagojevich resigns; Quinn appoints a successor

The Blago Complaint: Fun With Candidate Two

From the complaint:

ROD BLAGOJEVICH told Spokesman to leak to a particular columnist for the Chicago Sun- Times, that Senate Candidate 2 is in the running for the vacant Senate seat. According to ROD BLAGOJEVICH, by doing this, he wanted "to send a message to the [President-elect's] people," but did not want it known that the message was from ROD BLAGOJEVICH. Thereafter, ROD BLAGOJEVICH and Spokesman discussed specific language that should be used in the Sun Times column and arguments as to why Senate Candidate 2 made sense for the vacant Senate seat. A review of this particular Sun Times column on November 7, 2008, indicates references to the specific language and arguments regarding Senate Candidate 2 as a potential candidate for the Senate seat, as discussed by ROD BLAGOJEVICH and Spokesman.

So -- who was Candidate 2? The Sun-Times, on Friday, November 7, includes a mention of Sen. Lisa Madigan. Columnist Michael Sneed: " TIPSVILLE . . . The latest from Blagoville: Is Gov. Rod Blagojevich toying with tossing Barack Obama's U.S. Senate seat to Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who wants Blago's job? - It's his pick . . . and it would get rid of a rival. - It may endear him to powerful House Speaker Mike Madigan, Lisa's dad, who is Blago's political foe.:"

Blago Complaint And The Obama Team

Blago Complaint: Who Is Senate Candidate 5?

Later on November 10, 2008, ROD BLAGOJEVICH and Advisor A discussed
the open Senate seat. Among other things, ROD BLAGOJEVICH raised the issue of
whether the President-elect could help get ROD BLAGOJEVICH's wife on "paid corporate
boards right now." Advisor A responded that he "think[s] they could" and that a "Presidentelect
. . . can do almost anything he sets his mind to." ROD BLAGOJEVICH states that he
will appoint "[Senate Candidate 1] . . . but if they feel like they can do this and not fucking
give me anything . . . then I'll fucking go [Senate Candidate 5]." (Senate Candidate 5 is
publicly reported to be interested in the open Senate seat). ROD BLAGOJEVICH stated
that if his wife could get on some corporate boards and "picks up another 150 grand a year
or whatever" it would help ROD BLAGOJEVICH get through the next several years as
Governor.

"Later on December 4, 2008, ROD BLAGOJEVICH spoke to Fundraiser A. ROD BLAGOJEVICH stated he was "elevating" Senate Candidate 5 on the list of candidates for the open Senate seat. ROD BLAGOJEVICH stated he might be able to cut a deal with
Senate Candidate 5 that provided ROD BLAGOJEVICH with something
"tangible up front." ROD BLAGOJEVICH noted he was going to meet with
Senate Candidate 5 in the next few days."

The only candidate with whom Blagojevich met within that period was Jesse Jackson, Jr.

The narrative of the complaint goes on to allege that Blagojevich attempt to extract something tangible from Candidate 5 in order to secure the appointment.

The charging document does NOT say that Candidate 5 himself did anything wrong or knew about the alleged offering by associates.

Blagojevich said that he might be able to cut a deal with Senate Candidate 5 that provided
Blagojevich with something "tangible up front." Noting that he was going to meet with Senate
Candidate 5 in the next few days, Blagojevich told Fundraiser A to reach out to an  intermediary (Individual D), from whom Blagojevich is attempting to obtain campaign contributions and whi Blagojevich believes is close to Senate Candidate 5. Blagojevich told Fundraiser A to tell Individual D that Senate Candidate 5 was a very realistic candidate but Blagojevich was getting a lot of pressure not to appoint Senate Candidate 5, according to the affidavit.

Blago Complaint: Senate Candidate 1

In a conversation with Harris on November 11, the charges state, Blagojevich said he knew
that the President-elect wanted Senate Candidate 1 for the open seat but "they're not willing to give me anything except appreciation. [Expletive] them."

On November 12, Blagojevich spoke with SEIU Official who was in Washington. This conversation occurred about a week after Blagojevich had met with SEIU Official to discuss the 9 Senate seat, with the understanding that the union official was an emissary to discuss Senate Candidate 1's interest in the Senate seat. During the November 12 conversation, Blagojevich allegedly explained the non-profit organization idea to SEIU Official and said that it could help Senate Candidate 1. The union official agreed to "put that flag up and see where it goes," although the official also had said he wasn't certain if Senate Candidate 1 wanted the official to keep pushing her candidacy. Senate Candidate 1 eventually removed herself from consideration for the open seat.

Blago ARRESTED For, Among Other Things, Allegedly Conspiring To Sell Obama's Senate Seat

Throughout the intercepted conversations, Blagojevich also allegedly spent significant time
weighing the option of appointing himself to the open Senate seat and expressed a variety of reasons for doing so, including: frustration at being "stuck" as governor; a belief that he will be able to obtain greater resources if he is indicted as a sitting Senator as opposed to a sitting governor; a desire to remake his image in consideration of a possible run for President in 2016; avoiding impeachment by the Illinois legislature; making corporate contacts that would be of value to him after leaving public 7 office; facilitating his wife's employment as a lobbyist; and generating speaking fees should he decide to leave public office.

Peaking, Or Tapping

The Auto "Compromise?" Car Czar, No Lawsuits, Etc, 07 Money Used

The terms of any financial assistance under this Act shall prohibit the recipient eligible automobile manufacturer from participating in, pursuing, funding, or supporting in any way, lawsuits any legal challenge (existing or contemplated) challenging to State laws concerning greenhouse gas emission standards)

(1) IN GENERAL.--For the purpose of providing funds to the President's designee in order to make loans for financial assistance under this Act, the Secretary of Energy shall make available to the President's designee funds made available under the provisions of section 129 of division A of the Consolidated Security, Disaster Assistance, and Continuing Appropriations Act, 2009, relating to funding for the manufacture of advanced technology vehicles, including State standards established pursuant to the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007.

131.1 Million Ballots Cast For President

A Little Bit Of Gore In Chi-Town

Move Over, Caroline Kennedy

PA Dems Size Up Matthews

The Washington Left Asserts Itself

Not Far From The Mark: Shinseki To Be Named VA Secretary

Et Tu, Sarko?

As sent in by a reader who recently vacationed in France:

The Republican Lockbox

I'm going to spill just a bit more bytes on what I've taken to calling the Republican Lockbox dilemma, or why the structure of politics, even more than particular events like the economic collapse and Bush fatigue, reinforces the challenege of a nationwide Republican comeback.

1. The class inversion. As described by Ron Brownstein, it's the growing strengh of Democrats among a certain type of white, college-educated voter; Obama won 47% of these voters in 2008, the most ever for a Democrat, and the trend has been advancing.  While Republicans typically do better among white, non-college voters, the share of these voters has been dropping fairly rapidly from election to election. They were a majority of the vote when Bill Clinton ran; they're 39% of the vote today.   One reason why wealthier, knowledge/service workers are voting Democratic is because the Republicans have boxed themselves in on cultural issues, including the role and place of science in society. Since the mid-nineties, Democrats have been gaining in these knowledge/professional melting pot/white collar  suburbs -- just check out four cycles worth of results from the ring counties around Philadelphia, Fairfield Co., CT, Oakland County, MI, Sillicon Valley.... (It was this trend that catalyzed R. Tiexiera and J. Judis's prescient book about the emerging Democratic majority).  Even as these workers generally favor lower taxes and less spending, a larger and larger share of white voters with college degrees considers themselves to be moderates on social issues: generally pro-choice, pro-civil union or same-sex marriage.

2. Party structure. Conservatives hold more sway in the Republican Party than liberals do in the Democratic party. To put it another way, conservatives make up a larger portion of the Republican base than liberals do of the Democratic base -- a larger percentage, even of their national committee that liberals do in the DNC. Therefore, it's more difficult for Republican candidates to challenge orthodoxy and dogma; it's harder for a Bill Clinton figure to emerge.  You cannot build a Republican Party without social conservatives. Another Brownstein point: the high water mark for the modern Republican coalition was 2004, when national security became the glue that held disparate strands together, when George Bush's popularity pulled just enough voters across the line.  But even then, his majority was among the narrowest of the century. And in 2000, John McCain did George W. Bush a favor; the latter, by protesting so loudly against the Pat Robertsons of the world, allowed the former to avoid explicitly indentifying them.  (Note well: Bush still lost the Philly suburbs.) You can't win elections without the strong support of social conservatives, and it seems as if, going forward, Republicans won't be able to win them without somehow convincing the denizens of Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties that social issues are simply less important to them.  It used to be that Republicans won the culture wars and Democrats won the economy wars; ironically, the base of the Democratic Party isn't demographically wired to be responsive to economic populism and more and more responsive to post-material appeals about culture, America's role in the world, and government reform.

3. Writing off the country.  Republicans can't write off everything outside the deep South and the interior rural West. The traditional Republican campaign blueprint has to be rewritten almost entirely. It's very upsetting, and worrying, to many Republicans operatives when they realize that millions of tax-sensitive voters knew that Obama would raise their taxes and still voted for him.

Continue reading "The Republican Lockbox" »

Reporters On The State Beat: Huma 101

Biden Appoints Jared Bernstein As Chief Economic Policy Adviser To VP

Ann Romney's Health Takes A Turn

Ann Romney, wife of Gov. Mitt Romney, today released the following statement:

"Last week, following my annual mammogram at Brigham and Women's Hospital, I was diagnosed with Ductal Carcinoma In Sutu (DCIS). While this is commonly referred to as early stage breast cancer, it is technically not cancer but rather pre-cancer, as it has not become invasive. Today, I have had a lumpectomy. This procedure does not require hospitalization. Mitt and I feel fortunate to have caught this so early. And, it reminds us how important it is for women to have regular mammograms. As in all cases of cancer, early detection is critical. Many families are facing medical hardships--our hearts go out to all of you and also our wishes for healing holidays."

 

 

New Ad; Dems Try To Drive This One Home

With auto bailout hearings continuing today, the UAW began airing a new TV ad in the DC market, calling on Congress to immediately provide an emergency bridge loan to Ford, GM and Chrysler. The TV spot, titled, "Not Bankers" started airing in DC yesterday and will run through next week.

At an emergency meeting yesterday in Detroit, UAW delegates representing Chrysler, Ford and GM workers agreed to consider additional sacrifices to help the U.S. auto industry, including deferred payments to a health care trust, the suspension of the jobs bank program, and convening UAW bargaining committees to consider contract modifications.

Meanwhile, following the five hour Senate Banking Committee hearing yesterday, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and other Democratic leaders urged Bush to use his powers under the $700-billion financial industry bailout to make emergency loans to the automakers - Nora McAlvanah

Democrats v. Obama

One Last Political Task For Hillary Clinton?

The Obama Modernism Mode

Journalists, analysts, bloggers are trying to figure out to frame this most unusual presidential transition. No single thread runs through all of Obama's appointments and policy announcements, although many theories abound:

Competence?  He's surrounding himself with the ablest heavyweights from the Clinton era and the spriteliest welterweights from the next generation. Americans like this; they're fed up with incompetence.

Sun-Tzu-t-ian? Gen. James Jones disagrees with Obama about a date-certain withdrawal from Iraq' Jones has the top foreign policy staff job in the land. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama differed profoundly about the tone of diplomacy; she's now the nation's chief diplomat. George Bush's Defense Department represented Iraq; its chief is staying about. Potential enemies are kept closer than some allies.

Forgiving? Previous, public, even major errors in judgment aren't disqualifying. Eric Holder, his incoming enforcer of the nation's laws, faces questions about the Marc Rich pardon and whether Holder was too beholden to his boss's wishes to exercise independent judgment. These questions are legitimate, and fairly pressing, and yet Obama had no hesitancy whatsoever about asking Holder to be his AG before he even ran the idea by a large number of outside advisers. That's forgiving. There's something humbling about making a mistake in public, about being forced to confront a bad choice; perhaps, in Obama's mind, there's something maturing about it as well.  (Heck, Obama even talked with Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa about a job. Villaraigosa admitted an extramarital affair less than two years ago.)  

Continue reading "The Obama Modernism Mode" »

Beating The Dead Donkey: Your Next President Is Eligible For His Job.

How Obama Might Do Cap-And-Trade: An Update

President-elect Barack Obama and Congressional Democrats might bypass major congressional debate and begin to construct a national cap-and-trade mechanism through regulation at the Environmental Protection Agency.

Background is here.

A transition official said that the idea is under consideration. A second transition official calls the idea "absurd."

Phil Schiliro, appointed to be Obama's legislative director and a long-time former chief of staff to Rep. Henry Waxman, fought for a full decade to put the Clean Air Act into law. His chief nemesis for most of that decade was Rep. John Dingell, who used his perch as on the House Energy and Natural Resources Commerce committee to water down climate change legislation. Schiliro's former boss, Waxman, is now the chairman of that committee, having ousted Dingell in a floor vote.

Schiliro declined to comment.

Using the EPA to knit together various state emission credit regimes would be the first step towards a national cap-and-trade system. Obama promised during his campaign to use the proceeds the government earns from auctioning off the pollution credits to invest in green jobs.  Without a new government auction, Obama would have to find a new source for the money, because states currently profit from the auctions.  Also: a national cap-n-trade program would theoretically be more efficient and cost-effective than several systems.

Putting billions into the first stimulus package might be a downpayment, allowing Obama to postpone Congressional legislation, but not at the expense of the cap-and-trade system itself.

Bill Gates Meets With Joe Biden

Yes, that _was_ Microsoft co-founder/philanthropist Bill Gates who showed up at the Obama transition offices in Washington today.

All that an Obama spokesperson would say is that Gates met with Vice President-elect Joe Biden.

(Update: a transition spokesman e-mails: " The Vice President-elect and Bill Gates met today at the transition headquarters to discuss a wide-range of issues, including global health and development, as well the need to improve resources for secondary education, particularly for community colleges.")

It's not known whether Gates had any other transition-related meetings or whether Biden will soon meet with Steve Jobs for the sake of appearances.

Earlier, Gates spoke before a capacity crowd at George Washington University. He urged the Obama administration to follow through on its committment to double the foreign aid budget to $50 billion.  According to the Washington Post, Gates had high praise for Washington, D.C. schools superintendent Michelle Rhee.

The RNC Chairman's Race: Updated Handicapping

Who will Sarah Palin endorse for RNC chair? Who's the Palin candidate? Saxby Chambliss's victory has certified the Palin wing of the party as the center of its gravity --  at least, that's how the GOP seems to be treating things. If Chambliss's words are indicative of GOP thinking, Republican activists and conservatives, then Palin must have a pretty tight grip.

The answer to the question is that Palin hasn't endorsed an RNC candidate, and her political advisers aren't saying whether she will.

Several candidates are in Washington, D.C. this week; they're scheduled to attend Vice President Cheney's Christmas Party, which will be held tomorrow night. Lots of RNC members attend, so it'll be a chance for one-on-one politicking.

Trial balloons have expanded and popped; Newt Gingrich continues to tell those who ask that he won't serve as RNC chair unless he's urged to run. Right now, RNC members aren't agitating in public for a new candidate, although it's tough to gaugue how pleased they are with the field.

Five candidates are  actively courting support at the moment. RNC chairman Mike Duncan continues a listening tour of sorts; the others are South Carolina party chairman Katon Dawson, Michigan chair Saul Anuzis, former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael Steele and ex-Huckabee campaign manager Chip Saltsman.

To win, a candidate needs 85 of the 168 members of the committee, and the candidates come to the race with assets and liabilities. Anuzis is the only candidate who represents a state north of the Mason-Dixon line; he talks like a regular guy and knows how to frame economic issues.  But he has no real record of success in Michigan, and some RNC members believe that he's a stalking horse for Mitt Romney's 2012 presidential hopes. (Anuzis denies this.) 

Dawson has been a very successful chairman of the South Carolina Republican Party. But then again, it's hard not to be a successful GOP party chair in South Carolina. Dawson's campaign is very well organized, and he's been in the race the longest. That said, a large tranche of the party, including well-respected Southerners like Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS), want the next chairman to come from some place other than the South. Barbour hasn't endorsed a candidate; he is friendly with Steele and Anuzis. Also, Dawson was until recently a member of an exclusionist club in South Carolina. Yes, that kind of exclusionist. When the mainstream media begins to pay attention to the race, they'll pay lots of attention to that fact especially if Dawson emerges as the frontrunner. That attention, in turn, might hurt Dawson's chances. The RNC membership is more sensitive to the party's brand than some might think.

Steele is the semi-celebrity candidate, owing to his Fox News contributorship, his Senate race, and his chairmanship of GOPAC. He's enlisted several prominent GOP consultants, including former RNC political director Blaise Hazelwood and media strategist Curt Anderson, to help his bid. There's a little bit of vendor envy between the Duncan factions and the Steele factions. Steele's biggest demerit isn't his past murkiness on abortion; it's his endorsement of the centrist Republican Leadership Council, a bugbear to party conservatives.

Steele is the best communicator of the bunch, although Dawson, Duncan and Anuzis have all been given informal tryouts on Fox News. He's got the clearest message; being black, he understands explicitly what the party has to do to expand its base without compromising its principals. Anuzis argues that Republicans need a tonal adjustment; what works for a Republican in Michigan isn't going to be what works for a Republican in Mississippi. He's also pushing technology and transparency.  Duncan touts his fundraising successes and his knowledge of the party. On the other hand, he's definitely not the change candidate.

Before Saltsman can contemplate a solid coalition, he needs to get the support of fellow Tennesseans. Saltsman's relationship with Huckabee concerns some RNC members who don't want Huckabee to be their 2012 nominee.

A sixth potential candidate, Texas GOP chairman Tina Benkiser, has told associates that she would like to be the next co-chair of the party; the party will probably oblige.

Republicans expect at least one more high profile name to enter the race by week's end.

Discourse Watch: Obama's Citizenship A Legit Topic?

Townhall.com is a mainstream, legitimate, comprehensive, informative, and entertaining conservative news and opinion magazine and website. Disclosure: they've written nice things about me. To liberals and non-conservatives, their content can sometimes be edgy.  Well, this is beyond edgy.

Like other political websites, Townhall lends its imprimatur to featured advertisers in e-mail segments, bracketing fundraising appeals or products in what they call the "Spotlight from Townhall." Townhall's list of subscribers is quite large.

Today, the Townhall.com spotlight features a fundraising plea from a foundation that wants to prove, in court, that Barack Obama wasn't born in the United States and is therefore ineligible to be president and therefore wants to do a whole lot of bad things involving amnesty, illegal aliens and the United Nations. Obama'd be the "Usurper in Chief." The birth charge is specious and has been convincingly refuted.

I assume that the ad content doesn't represent the editorial opinion of Townhall, but there's no disclaimer, and the "Spotlight" box seems to suggest the opposite, leaving the impression that Townhall endorses the claims.

E-mails and telephone messages left with Townhall staff, including its chief sales rep, were not immediately returned.

Provocation of The Day: Give TARP Time

The Easier Path To Cap-And-Trade

As they negotiate with Congressional leaders, the Obama transition team has been circumspect about the ordering and specific content of  his legislative calendar for the first 100 days. But from Obama's own mouth, we know that energy and climate change are priorities. On election night, Obama referred to terra firma as a "planet in peril."

Most outside observers assume that the Obama administration will work with Congress to pass standalone legislation that completely revamps the nation's energy laws and institutes an emission cap-and-trade system. Doing so would necessitate a public debate about the costs and benefits of energy transformation. It would involve,  necessarily, industry, and would require compromises.  Maybe, in exchange for significiant industry concessions about the structure of a cap-and-trade system,  Obama would give up on a windfall profits tax on oil companies; with gas prices low, that tax might not generate all that much money.  (Update: he's already thrown that idea away.)

But there may be an easier way for Obama to institute carbon caps without exposing himself to the political downsides, without giving up much of his political capital.  (Let me deal with an objection: yes of course the American people want energy independence and are very worried about global warming and support tougher rules and regs, but politicians haven't been terribly honest with them about the short-term (and potential long-term) costs of this type of change. Major congressional action might alter the political equation a bit.)

In essence, what Obama and the Democrats could do is to use the cover of a stimulus package to spend billions to create green jobs, and then pursue the carbon-capping half of the equation administratively, using laws like Clean Air Act.

Some of Obama's top environmental advisers have argued that the CAA gives the Environmental Protection Agency the authority to regulate already existing regional cap-and-trade regimes; the EPA would simply knit them together. Voila. National cap-n-trade. Well, yes, every state in the union would have to affiliate with a program or create one of their own, but many governors and legislatures appear ready to do this, conditioned on the federal government's willingness to administer it.

Continue reading "The Easier Path To Cap-And-Trade" »

Georgia Runoff: A Guide To Its Meaning

Partisans will take Saxy Chambliss's victory to heart, under and over-interpreting it to fit their assessment of the electorate. Maybe -- Georgians, already fed up with Democratic control, re-elected Chambliss to send a message to Obama and the Democrats. Or; Obama had no coattails whatsoever and Democrats ought to be nervous about 2010. Or; the lessions from this special election have about as much relevance to the whole of the polity as Duke "The Dumpster" Droese had to the legacy of the World Wrestling Federation.

In truth, the national environment always has, at the least a marginal influence on special elections, hereby defined as elections held on an unusual date. Giving the influence a median value of, say, .2, tells us nothing about the multiplier effects and what they might be. Habitual voters tend to vote in special elections; in Georgia, there are more Republican habitual voters than Democratic habitual voters; the minds of Republican habitual voters were no doubt focused on Chambliss's sudden cameo as the bullwark against an overweening Democratic majority. But these habitual voters are an ideologically charged subset of the electorate. On November 4, 3.7 million Georgians voted. Yesterday, about 2.1 million Georgians did.

Continue reading "Georgia Runoff: A Guide To Its Meaning" »

Jeb Bush Ponders Florida Senate Run

A Second Middle East

"Like I said, these are stateless individuals who operate throughout -- I mean, I've got a situation in Pakistan that the fourth largest army in the world is challenged on my border on the west. I've got 150 people out, boys out, soldiers out. We have casualties every day. We've had incidents just the past two days in Karachi where we've lost more than 40 to 45 people, hundreds injured. These are stateless actors who are moving throughout this region."

Obama Will Announce Richardson As Commerce Sec. Tomorrow

President-elect Barack Obama will announce his choice for Commerce Secretary tomorrow in Chicago, Democratic sources said. The nominee, as has been widely rumored, is Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), who spent the day formalizing a transition plan in his state.

No other cabinet appointments will be announced this week.

Labor activist Mary Beth Maxwell has emerged as a serious candidate for Secretary of Labor, Democratic and transition offiicials confirm. The Wall Street Journal reported this morning that Maxwell, who'd be the first openly gay cabinet secretary, is being vetted for the job, along with Jennifer Granholm of Michigan and Kathleen Sebelius of Kansas. Of the three, Sebelius has the inside track and the closest relationship with Obama. Sebelius has also been mentioned as a potential pick for Secretary of Education.

Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), one of the earliest members of Congress to back Obama, is the top candidate to be Secretary of the Interior, Democratic sources said. Other potential Interior picks include Rep. Mike Thompson (D-CA) and Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA).

For Education Secretary, Democrats say that Graham Spainer, the president of Penn State University, and Ray Mabus, the former governor of Mississippi, are said to be in the running. (If Joe Paterno gets a vote, then maybe it's Mabus.)  Others include John Deasy, the superintendent of the Prince George's County public school system, Linda Darling-Hammond, a well-regarded academic from Stanford and an Obama education policy adviser, and Ronnie Musgrove, another former Mississippi governor who lost his bid for Senate. 

Department Of Capitalism

We Are All Philip Bobbitts

Continue reading "We Are All Philip Bobbitts" »

Martinez Retires

"I thank all of those who helped me reach the highest elected office that an immigrant can hold in this great country.  And I especially thank my family, who has supported me every step of the way - especially Kitty, who has sacrificed much more than me and without whom none of this would have been possible.

"Some might try to characterize this decision in terms of political affairs.   Some will say a re-election campaign would have been too difficult.  But I've faced much tougher odds in political campaigns and in life.  My decision was not based on reelection prospects, but on what I want to do with the next eight years of my life.

"The thought of devoting more time to my roles as husband, dad, granddad, brother and son to the family I love and cherish, and to be "Mel" to the friends I miss - makes this decision far easier than one might think.

Clinton's Foreign Policy Cabinet: Where Will They Go?

So where does Hillary Clinton's foreign policy cabinet hang its hat for the next four years?

Her main team consists of:

Richard Holbrooke, the former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and Dayton Peace Accord broker; Clinton's chief defense adviser, Bob Einhorn, a Clinton administration veteran and non-proliferation expert, Andrew Shapiro, Clinton's chief foreign policy adviser, Wendy Sherman, a senior adviser to Madelieine Albright and Warren Christopher, and Melaine Verveer, a former Clinton chief of staff and longtime Clinton confidante.

Now -- signing up for Team Obama, especially when things were not looking so hot in late 2007, was a real act of professional courage for many Obamaites. And there was quite a bit of tension between the two camps -- although it's not clear whether the principals listed above were involved.

Tensions have cooled; Clinton advisers are assisting Obama's transition team and serving on several advisory committees. But staff is destiny, and there are conflicting reports about how much latitude Clinton will have to bring her own team aboard.

Obama To Vacation In Hawaii For Christmas

President-elect Barack Obama will spend the Christmas and New Year's holidays on an extended vacation with his family in Hawaii, Democratic sources confirmed today. The length of the vacation is not yet clear, and transition officials would not comment. Obama last visited the islands in October when his grandmother was sick. The Christmas trek to Hawaii may be a regular occurance for Obama in the White House, which would please the press corps, the Secret Service, WHCA and the locals to no end -- though it must be said: Crawford was probably easier to secure. 

Obama vacations there whenever he gets the chance, jetting it before the Democratic National Convention. It was in Hawaii where, his official biography says, he made the final decision to run for president.

A "Smart Power" Cabinet

The takeaway from Barack Obama's national security team rollout this morning is holism.

Announcing, at once, an  attorney general, the homeland security chief, Obama's defense chief, his chief diplomat, his chief negotiator and his chief adviser sends the message that Obama's conception of national security includes the need to defend against terror attacks at home and to devise a sensible mechanism to detain and punish those who attack us. More prosaically, Obama has chosen to render the foreign policy decision making mechanism as a table, over which people will disagree to the point of consensus. Where White House staff ran ends around Sec. Condi Rice, even failing to read her in to certain programs; when the Department of Defense refused to consult with State and vice versa, Obama seems to be saying here that big decisions will be made by (Obama, of course) but vetted throuhg a very diverse group of experienced men and women with egos, staffs and different institutional prerogatives.  

Defense Secretary Robert Gates and national security adviser designate James Jones will manage the withdrawal from Iraq and the transfer of operations into Afghanistan. Diplomacy and civil society missions will be subordinated to military missions for the time being. Jones will give Obama cover with the generals who'll be in charge of carrying out the new mission; Gates will give Obama cover with the Pentagon bureaucracy. Both Gates and Jones are adherents of what's come to be known as the "smart power" school of foreign policy, which locates them both outside of the traditional realist/idealist grid. 

Jones, NATO's commissar, initially sold Afghanistan to NATO allies as if it were Kosovo; he soon realized that mistake and spent much of his term fighting for a different strategy and for more resources. Obama seems to appreciate the fact that Jones was able to change his mind and take a new course when evidence rendered his earlier assumptions inoperative.

Even with the Bush Administration's second-term renaissance, the Department of State is fairly demoralized, understaffed and underfunded. It will have to learn to compete with the DoD when it comes to the arenas of public diplomacy and peacebuilding. Its foreign service officers need to figure out how to use 21st century technology to communicate with the public.  Clinton's primary challenge is managerial; she has to wrestle back resources, attract a new corps of diplomats, and justify State's place at the table. 

There's a potential for intrigue between Susan Rice and Hillary Clinton, in part because Clinton-era NSC conflicts, and in part because their two missions overlap.  It's not clear, aside from Obamanian symbology, why the post of U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. needs to brought back to the cabinet. Rice will have a platform but no staff; Clinton will have a large platform, an enormous staff, but until she's given a specific portfolio, no defined mission. Obama may decide to expand Rice's role -- perhaps giving her the AIDS relief portfolio that's run out of the Agency for International Development.

Wait, Wait, Do Tell Me