131.1 Million Ballots Cast For President

George Mason University professor Michael McDonald has released his revised national turnout estimate, out today, is that 131.3 million people, or 61.6% of eligible voters (the voting eligible population, or VEP), cast their ballots for president in 2008, an increase of about nine million, or 1.5% percent, over 2004. As McDonald notes, the variability of census data makes it difficult to compare the 61.6% to the 1968 turnout rate of 62.5% precisely -- we'll know more next year when the Census updates its figures. McDonald notices that several states seemed to experience battleground withdrawal; turnout declined in Oregon and Washington, two states that were never competitive in 2008. The states with the largest increases were, of course, the suddenly competitive states: North Carolina (+8%), Indiana (+ 4.5%); non-competitive states with large black populations like Georgia (+4.5%), South Carolina (+5.6%) and Alabama (+4.5%) also saw turnout increases. McDonald writes that declines in states like Utah and Alaska"may reflect less enthusiasm among Republicans for Sen. McCain."

Should it have been more?

My colleague Mark Blumenthal can't find any on-the-record prediction by senior Obama campaign officials that turnout would reach 140 million, although I can say today that several senior aides told me on background, they expected that the turnout would be slightly higher than it turned out to be, anywhere between 133 million and 140 million.  Smartly, none would put the prediction on the record, so there's plausible deniability. As the campaign continues its forensic accounting of its GOTV efforts, though, there may be internal efforts to figure out whether certain levers weren't pushed.

And bear in mind: the Obama political machine was effective because of its scale. But it doesn't automatically follow that a larger-scale voter contact effort will necessarily contact huge numbers of additional voters; indeed, Obama and Kerry contacted about 26% of the electorate in both years. Obama telephoned a few million more, but the proportion did not grow. The evidence from the exit polls suggests two things. One -- the quality of Obama's contacts -- who contacted whom, the type of contact -- was better in 2008 than 2004. And dampened Republican enthusiasm contributed to a decline in the absolute and relative number of contacts that the Republican made.