Presuming that there isn't a Supreme Court vacancy in 2009 -- hardly a presumption worth betting on, by the way, Republican strategists looking to beat the post-election malaise are identified at least three opportunities next year where the party can unify on a national level against Barack Obama and the Democrats.
1. The nomination of Eric Holder to be Attorney General. Not only will committee Republicans get the chance to grill Holder on the Marc Rich pardon and Bill Clinton's 1999 commutation of FALN members, they'll also force the Obama administration to issue detailed policy statements on intelligence collection, judicial nominees, the Supreme Court, the independence of federal prosecutors, the status of Guantanamo Bay, and more. They'll get to do this before Obama is inaugurated, and before he can use the bully pulpit of the presidency to set a clear course. To renergize their base, Republicans need a good demagogue, and Holder, if he comes off as wimpy, might qualify. The irony for Republicans is that, Michael Mukasey aside, the Bush Administration lowered the standards for what constitutes a good attorney general.
A. The GOP v. Clinton side show. Let's stipulate: Hillary Clinton's confirmation hearing will give Republicans like David Vitter the chance to bring up various and sundry sins associated with the pater familias. My sense is that Republicans on the Hill have little desire to follow Vitter's lead, in part because Vitter has little credibility within the conference. (Even Vitter might decide that his own public imbroglios, coupled with his in-cycle status, might be too much.) In any event, Republicans will use Clinton's confirmation to elicit policy statements from the administration on everything from talking to Iran to the coming war of succession in Egypt to Pakistan to Russia to North Korea.
2. The stimulus package. First, make that packages, plural. There'll be several of them spread throughout the year, though there is no consensus right now about how to divide up the proposals. A trillion dollars worth of government spending over the course of a few years is a ripe target for conservatives. Think back to the (Bill-Clinton/Joe Biden!) crime bill of 1994, when Republicans rallied their base against the legislation by ridiculing a tiny part of it -- proposals to expand midnight basketball leagues as a way of keeping kids off the streets and out of gangs. Watch for Republicans to settle on a handful of objectionable items and create the impression that the entire enterprise is suspect. Doing so will give Republicans cover to vote against more wildly popular projects.
Then there's Obama's first budget., the coming battle over earmarks (which will divide Democrats), then there's the (likely) debate about extending the auto bailout.
3. The Employee Free Choice Act. Here, the goal is to get 40 senators to vote against cutting off debate for "card check" legislation. . As this column has noted, they'll be assisted by reliable party allies, from the Chamber of Commerce to NFIB to the usual crowd of corporate issue entrepeneurs; millions will be spent to rally the Republican base and set the tone of the debate. One problem: Democrats might not do card check until it is politically precarious for certain Republicans to oppose it, so Republicans may have to wait on this one.
Where else might the GOP take a stand?
It's hard to imagine that Republicans will defer to Democrats on health care, but their allies aren't going to be with them all the way.
Blagojevich? the national Republican Party has no standing to criticize the Democrats right now on corruption, and doing so dissolves the demarcation line between politics and the legal situation. More profitably, Republicans in Illinois can use the Democratic legislature's fumbling of the succession issue to draw a contrast with whoever ends up as the Democratic nominee.
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i think this sums up the problem with the republican party. they're more interested in demagoging than in governing. I think, and i may very well be wrong, that the country is in a place now where they want serious people to conduct the serious business of getting this country back on track. Republicans demagoging holder over a decade old pardon, especially after the travesty of Alberto "I can't Recall" Gonzalez as AG (and all the corruption in DOJ that resulted from his tenure) is a surefire way for them to look small, petty, and obstructionist. And that's no way to find your way back to the majority.
Posted by freaktown | December 16, 2008 3:22 PM