I'm going to spill just a bit more bytes on what I've taken to calling the Republican Lockbox dilemma, or why the structure of politics, even more than particular events like the economic collapse and Bush fatigue, reinforces the challenege of a nationwide Republican comeback.
1. The class inversion. As described by Ron Brownstein, it's the growing strengh of Democrats among a certain type of white, college-educated voter; Obama won 47% of these voters in 2008, the most ever for a Democrat, and the trend has been advancing. While Republicans typically do better among white, non-college voters, the share of these voters has been dropping fairly rapidly from election to election. They were a majority of the vote when Bill Clinton ran; they're 39% of the vote today. One reason why wealthier, knowledge/service workers are voting Democratic is because the Republicans have boxed themselves in on cultural issues, including the role and place of science in society. Since the mid-nineties, Democrats have been gaining in these knowledge/professional melting pot/white collar suburbs -- just check out four cycles worth of results from the ring counties around Philadelphia, Fairfield Co., CT, Oakland County, MI, Sillicon Valley.... (It was this trend that catalyzed R. Tiexiera and J. Judis's prescient book about the emerging Democratic majority). Even as these workers generally favor lower taxes and less spending, a larger and larger share of white voters with college degrees considers themselves to be moderates on social issues: generally pro-choice, pro-civil union or same-sex marriage.
2. Party structure. Conservatives hold more sway in the Republican Party than liberals do in the Democratic party. To put it another way, conservatives make up a larger portion of the Republican base than liberals do of the Democratic base -- a larger percentage, even of their national committee that liberals do in the DNC. Therefore, it's more difficult for Republican candidates to challenge orthodoxy and dogma; it's harder for a Bill Clinton figure to emerge. You cannot build a Republican Party without social conservatives. Another Brownstein point: the high water mark for the modern Republican coalition was 2004, when national security became the glue that held disparate strands together, when George Bush's popularity pulled just enough voters across the line. But even then, his majority was among the narrowest of the century. And in 2000, John McCain did George W. Bush a favor; the latter, by protesting so loudly against the Pat Robertsons of the world, allowed the former to avoid explicitly indentifying them. (Note well: Bush still lost the Philly suburbs.) You can't win elections without the strong support of social conservatives, and it seems as if, going forward, Republicans won't be able to win them without somehow convincing the denizens of Bucks, Delaware and Montgomery counties that social issues are simply less important to them. It used to be that Republicans won the culture wars and Democrats won the economy wars; ironically, the base of the Democratic Party isn't demographically wired to be responsive to economic populism and more and more responsive to post-material appeals about culture, America's role in the world, and government reform.
3. Writing off the country. Republicans can't write off everything outside the deep South and the interior rural West. The traditional Republican campaign blueprint has to be rewritten almost entirely. It's very upsetting, and worrying, to many Republicans operatives when they realize that millions of tax-sensitive voters knew that Obama would raise their taxes and still voted for him.
4. Minority voters. Black voters are pretty much locked up for eight years. Some Republicans argue that black middle class voters, having been empowered by the election of Barack Obama, will become less faithful to the Democratic Party. Well -- so long as the Republicans continue to field legitimate party chair candidates who were very recently members of exclusionist country clubs, that's not going to happen. Conservatives aren't going to step away from opposition to comprehensive immigration reform, even though many prominent GOP voices want them to; Democrats have strong majorities among every other minority group.
What's the solution?
It's hard to think of one Republicans can't win without social conservatives, and so they shouldn't try to. They can't win by "going back to their roots," in part because that phrase is tautological and has no agreed upon meaning. By roots, does one mean anti-communism? Lower taxes? Cultural traditionalism? Libertarianism? It took Bill Clinton to bring Democrats out of their wilderness, but he took the party from point A to point B. Adapting conservative principles to modern developments like globalization is an obvious avenue to reform, but that's easier said than done, and there are many in the party who believe that no change on policy is needed, just a new "tone."
I throw the comments open for readers to weigh in.
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I think republicans need to get away from social issues. this is the 21st century and you can't thrive in the 21st century with a mid 20th century mindset.
i think thats why obama did so well. he appealed modern voters on modern issues that mattered and that they cared about.
i doubt the gop will ever stop running on guns, gods, gays, and abortions, but until they start articulating issues other than those, voters won't support them.
i mean, we're in an economic meltdown and john mccain is not talking about conservative, republican solutions, he's calling obama a socialist who hates american values.
in part, its because he thought that was the only way to win, but also, i think its because he didn't really have any republican solutions to the mess republican governance created.
Also, it seems like republicans don't understand that 2/3 of this country are either democrats or independents and that to win elections you need to appeal to voters who aren't republican. Thats why i say they need to stop with the guns,god, and gays strategy and focus on the moderates in the middle who are alienated by the gop's hostile attitude towards those who are different than they are.
Posted by freaktown | December 5, 2008 2:26 PM