Peaking, Or Tapping

Given the Republican Party's 3-0 record since election day in federal races, it's perhaps only natural to read a spate of stories suggesting an early Republican renaissance, or that Democrats peaked too soon.

Victory one: A Republican incumbent Senator in Georgia defeated a Democratic challenger.

Victory two: An unknown, new GOPer with a great story and a platform of integrity defeated a convicted felon whose district demography has changed significantly from when he was first elected.

Victory three: a Republican narrowly defeated a Democrat to replace a retiring incumbent Republican in the House.

All three races took place in states won easily by Sen. John McCain.

The most important news in all of the above is that Joseph Cao decided to affiliate with the Republican Party, although he really had no choice if he wanted to run in the first place. Cao did not run as a Republican, nor as a conservative, nor as a social conservative, nor, as, really, anything but a man of integrity who would restore pride to the district.
 
The Three Victories aren't abberations, as each indvidual race is, by definition, different.  In Georgia, the larger Republican base, faced with the prospect of preventing a 60-seat majority, had an easy to object to rally around. In the state's 4th congressional district, the Democrat almost won.

If Republicans find a Joseph Cao to run in every district in 2010, then they'll find themselves in more competitive races. What they won't findselves is having become more conservative, more "back to basics," more back to the principles of the Reagan Revolution, or whatever the fetish term of art is, these days.

Not that Democrats will fare any better; they may not have "peaked;" they might just be demographically tapped out. There are, after all, tens of millions of Republican voters in the South. Democrats will have a surfeit of resources in 2010, and they'll be tempted to expand their map even further. Republicans currently hold only five congressional seats won by John Kerry in 2004; Democrats hold more than 40 congressional seats won by Pres. Bush. Charlie Cook's early prognosis lists twice as many competitive Democratic seats as Republican seats.