RNC Chairman's Race Update

On the face of it, Ken Blackwell is on a roll. He's picked up a slew of public endorsements, from the board of directors at Redstate.com to the Family Research Council and Phyllis Schlafy. His performance at the early January debate certainly won him new attention from those not paying too much.  Is his momentum real?

None of the candidates are close to securing the 85 votes they need to win on the first ballot; indeed, the leading candidate, current chairman Mike Duncan, has about a quarter of the public endorsements he'd need.  It's doubtful that anything breaks loose between now and the vote, slated for the January.

For many party insiders, the question is whether Duncan survives the first ballot. By that they mean -- does he receive enough first ballot votes to be seen as the likely winner? Or does he fall short of that so far unknowable standard. In other words -- will members of the committee perceive a Duncan loss on the first ballot as a rejection of his tenure?  That's just not clear.  If they do, it's also not clear who Duncan's votes would flow to -- Saul Anuzis of Michigan, Katon Dawson of South Carolina and Michael Steele of Maryland might benefit equally.

Assuming that Mr. Blackwell's first round vote totals don't exceed his public endorsements by too much, the question then becomes: will he drop out? Will he endorse? If Blackwell surprises the field -- if he's indeed turned the race into a DNC-race-cum-2005 where the left's anti-war reformers are analogous to Christian activists -- will the other candidates band together to prevent him from getting to 85?