(shamelessly pilfered from PTI)
CHANCES Sen. Barack Obama's stimulus package is sent to the Whte House by February 16, the day Speaker Nancy Pelosi has set as a goal for Congressional passage. 60% All the posturing headlines today notwithstanding, momentum, the politics, the urgency and public opinion are on Obama's side. Now -- the 60% figure is flexible. If Obama's team decides not to comrpomise, then the bill won't pass. If they do, they could get 80% of the vote. What would they need to get 80% of the vote? Well, about a third of Republicans and 90% of Democrats. The proposal to allow business to refile their tax returns and spread out their 2008 losses over the past five years will keep enough Republicans on board; the Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers love the idea, and they've already assumed some ownership of it. That suggests to me that the Chamber and NAM won't object to the parts of the plan they don't like. In the absence of pressure from the Chamber and NAM, a healthy number of Republicans are likely to support the bill. ......Then ask yourself whether liberal Democrats will really defect because the bill won't include enough direct transfer payments to the poor; then ask yourself whether conservative Democrats will be satisfied if Obama promises to tackle entitlement and budget reform in his first official budget. I think they will.
CHANCES the stimulus package changes significantly before it ends u on Obama's desk: 80%. Obama and the Democrats, in particular, have a clear incentive to make the stimulus as stimulative as possible; if it doesn't work, or if the economy does not improve after it passes (two different things), then Democrats will be more skeptical of anything Obama sends their way. ..... The biggest debates right now aren't taking place between the parties or between the executive and legislative branches. Senate Democrats generally want a short-term stimulus that full of temporary items; they worry about interest rates and the deficit. They're skeptical of Obama's tax cuts, thinking they're too small to stimulate demand and too expensive to stimulate employment. (Some want to pay them permanent; permanent tax cuts alter behavior; temporary tax cuts often don't.) Some Senate Democrats, like Tom Harkin, want Obama to be bolder; House Democrats want an expensive, one-year fix to the Alternative Minimum Tax; other House Democrats want to dilate the proposals to expand unemployment insurance; others want to double the spending on alternative energy.
CHANCES Sen. George Vionovich runs for re-election. 60% This fall, I reported that Voinovich was a candidate for retirement; Voinovich's spokespman denied it up and down. Now, more unnamed Republicans are suggesting that the two-term senator was on the verge of making the decision to step down. Perhaps they're trying to pressure him to step down; former Rep. Rob Portman would be ready to run to take his place.
CHANCES Leon Panetta is confirmed as CIA director. 90%
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Geez Marc, if you want to win, you have to include at least one squadoosh.
Posted by Dave Ruddell | January 9, 2009 11:50 AM