Ross, Holbrooke, Haass To Serve As Envoys

Update: Perhaps I was premature about Haass. But maybe not... stay tuned.

Transition officials confirm that President-elect Obama has asked Dennis Ross, Richard Haass, and Richard Holbrooke, to serve as his chief emissaries to  world hot spots.

It's expected that Ross will get the Iran portfolio, that Holbrooke, the hard-headed architect of the Dayton Peace Accords, will take the tough (and tougher) Southwest Asia portfolio, which includes India, Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that Haass will deal with the Middle East.

Each men's turf is still in flux, so the assignments might change. Other envoys will be added to this list; they'll deal with Africa and South America.

All three have the chops; all three are considered realists; all three have direct experience as envoys; Haass was the U.S. government's chief negotiator in Northern Ireland; Ross shuttled between Mideast capitals during the Clinton administration, and Holbrooke, as mentioned, brought warring sides together in the Balkans.  Haas served under Presidents Clinton and Bush and is currently the president of the Council on Foreign Relations.

A transition spokesman declined to comment.

Hints About The Future

Haass, writing in Foreign Affairs, calls for urgent diplomacy in the Middle East:

Israel is well aware of the drawbacks of a preventive military strike against Iran, especially if it has to act on its own. It prefers to support a diplomatic effort that would prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold, even though it is wary of Iran's dilatory tactics. And it, too, sees the advantage of peacemaking, especially with Syria, as a means of acquiring leverage over Iran. Nevertheless, Jerusalem's tolerance for engagement is more limited than Washington's because it has a less robust deterrent and greater reason to fear Tehran's intentions. Israel has never been prepared to accept another nuclear power in its neighborhood, especially not one that directly threatens its existence: given Israel's small size and concentrated population, a first strike by Iran on any scale would have devastating consequences.

To allow more time for diplomatic engagement to work, therefore, the Obama administration will have to persuade Israel not to strike Iran's nuclear facilities while U.S.-led diplomatic efforts are unfolding. That will require enhancing Israel's deterrent and defensive capabilities by providing it with a nuclear guarantee as well as additional ballistic missile defenses and early warning systems. Simultaneously providing nuclear guarantees against Iran to both Arab and Israeli allies will be a serious undertaking for Washington, but it may be the only way of preventing Iran's nuclear program from triggering a regional arms race.

Ross, speaking at a Washington-area synagoque on Monday, said that, in his opinion, the U.S. should support a new cease-fire in Gaza only if it guaranteed the end of Hamas's "capability to rearm."

Ross, a counselor and distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said achieving an Israeli-Palestinian agreement now would be much different than his last attempt in 2000. Not only is the Palestinian Authority divided and much weaker, he said, but the Israeli public doesn't believe such an agreement is possible.

Israel left Lebanon and Gaza, and in both instances, "things got a whole worse" -- which doesn't provide much confidence about a withdrawal from the West Bank, he said.